Saturday, May 24, 2025

Market Briefing for 2025-05-24

Market Overview

Tech sector volatility drove major equity themes, with large-cap technology stocks reacting sharply to shifting tariff policy, insider transactions, and soaring AI competition. Heightened U.S.-China trade tensions and the threat of sweeping new tariffs unsettled global markets, fueling defensive rotations and weighing on consumer and industrial names. Energy and select industrials benefitted from U.S. policy initiatives, while solar and consumer staples lagged on regulatory risk and policy shocks.
![SPX500 momentum](https://haru-insights-charts-2.s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/seasonality/tickers/%5Espx/%5Espx-105.png)

Global Macro

Bitcoin faced turbulent trading, sliding 4 % as risk appetites waned amid escalating U.S.–China trade tensions, offset by fresh signs of institutional participation such as Semler Scientific's notable purchase. The pending inclusion of Coinbase (COIN) in the S&P 500 further strengthened the narrative of crypto assets’ growing mainstream legitimacy, signaling a gradual integration of digital assets into traditional finance.

Sector Performance

  • Technology: 2 - Somewhat negative
  • Financials: 3 - Neutral
  • Healthcare: 4 - Somewhat positive
  • Industrials: 4 - Somewhat positive
  • Consumer Discretionary: 2 - Somewhat negative
  • Communication Services: 3 - Neutral
  • Energy: 4 - Somewhat positive
  • Utilities: 2 - Somewhat negative
  • Real Estate: 2 - Somewhat negative
  • Materials: 4 - Somewhat positive

Sector News

Technology

  • Apple (AAPL): Rocked by new AI competition following OpenAI’s acquisition of Jony Ive’s startup and U.S. tariff threats, sparking a 4 % pre-market drop as shipments to the U.S. hit a decade low; strategic pressures mount from both regulatory and competitive fronts.
  • Analog Devices (ADI): Analysts issued mixed messages—JPMorgan reaffirmed a bullish $300 target, but UBS trimmed its target citing automotive and export headwinds; concerns about demand softness and competitive AI opportunities clouded outlook.
  • Autodesk (ADSK): Received price target upgrades after a strong beat on revenue (16 % YoY) and robust guidance for FY26, though broad macro volatility and AI sector competition temper enthusiasm.
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Noteworthy recovery prospects as major hedge fund increased its stake, offsetting lingering concerns from a 31 % stock slide and a hefty $1.5 bn China export hit; new buyback and solid data center growth position AMD for AI-related upside.
  • Arista Networks (ANET): Analysts flagged a 25 % overvaluation, despite forecasted 52 % earnings growth; investors counseled to await a correction before entry.
  • Broadcom (AVGO): Heavy insider selling (over $121 mn) from the board chair, with no insider purchases, eroded market confidence and invited speculation on future valuation.
  • Cadence Design Systems (CDNS): Surged 22 % in three months powered by strong return on equity, but long-term growth lags industry benchmarks, prompting relative caution.
  • Cloudflare (NET): Spike in insider selling, absence of purchases, and muted near-term stock performance fueled investor anxiety on insider sentiment.
  • Dynatrace (DT): Solid full-year results, with 19 % revenue growth and 213 % net income jump; however, the outlook for slightly below-industry growth kept enthusiasm muted.
  • Intuit (INTU): Beat expectations in Q3 (15 % revenue growth), strong price target upgrades, and positive price action while peers faltered.
  • Microsoft (MSFT): Gained after FTC cleared its $69 bn Activision Blizzard deal; involvement in OpenAI’s ambitious AI hardware plans adds optionality as sector competition intensifies.
  • Nvidia (NVDA): Maintained sector leadership on forecast-defying 78 % revenue growth, but heightened competitive risks from AMD and regulatory uncertainty over China exports draw scrutiny ahead of the earnings event.
  • Palantir Technologies (PLTR): Notched 39 % sales growth amid a $1.4 tn TAM narrative; sky-high P/E of 546 and executive share sales prompted caution on valuation.
  • Salesforce (CRM): All eyes on impending Q1 report as the firm contends with sluggish AI rollout and a 20 % YTD stock decline, with near-term sector sentiment at stake.

Financials

  • BlackRock (BLK): Increased exposure to AI chip startups, signaling deepening interest among major institutions and potentially influencing sector valuations.
  • Goldman Sachs (GS): Warned of market volatility as trade policy uncertainty and tariff risks resurface.

Healthcare

  • Gilead Sciences (GILD): Strong readout for Trodelvy in phase 3 metastatic breast cancer study boosted stock 6 %, but secondary survival endpoints remain immature ahead of ASCO updates.
  • GSK plc (GSK): U.S. and EU regulatory wins for key specialty drugs and a 4.9 % recent share gain outperformed the broad sector, restoring optimism for its product pipeline.

Industrials

  • John Deere (DE): Announced acquisition of Sentera to enhance digital agri-tech capabilities; optimism tempered by high valuation concerns and tariff headwinds.
  • MasTec (MTZ): Posted an impressive 289 % stock gain over five years, but a recent dip and flagged warning signs suggest near-term caution.

Consumer Discretionary

  • Deckers Outdoor (DECK): Downgraded by Evercore ISI, collapsed nearly 20 % after weak growth guidance; macro and tariff uncertainty exacerbated risk-off mood.
  • Nike (NKE): Bill Ackman’s significant buying amid a 50 % drawdown renewed hopes for a turnaround, potentially reversing negative sentiment.
  • Ross Stores (ROST): Plunged nearly 11 % on earnings miss, lowered outlook, and cited tariff risks squeezing margins.
  • Williams-Sonoma (WSM): Fell 9.2 % for the week following slowing net income and revenue growth forecasts below sector averages.

Energy

  • Constellation Energy (CEG): Poised to benefit from executive orders facilitating faster nuclear permitting; potential gains offset by environmental regulatory scrutiny.
  • Chevron (CVX): Received a narrow license for Venezuelan operations—limits new investment but preserves maintenance ability amid U.S. sanctions.
  • Cameco (CCJ): Continued rally on sharp earnings turnaround and strong uranium production, although U.S. tariff risk moderates upside outlook.

Materials

  • U.S. Steel (X): Shares soared 21 % after Trump approved its merger with Nippon Steel, expected to add 70,000 jobs and inject $14 bn into the economy, though future trade policy volatility tempers long-term views.

Utilities

  • Enphase Energy (ENPH): Under severe pressure after U.S. House passed a bill to eliminate rooftop solar tax credits—potential for another 18 % sectoral demand decline threatens business model. /SolarEdge (SEDG): Impacted by the same policy risk, signaling acute market contraction and regulatory exposure for residential solar companies.

Other Major News

  • Coinbase (COIN): Selected for inclusion in the S&P 500, marking a significant step in the mainstreaming of crypto assets on Wall Street.
  • Disney (DIS): Filed a lawsuit against YouTube, escalating the battle for media platform dominance and raising the stakes in content/partnership disputes that could reshape streaming market competition.
  • Mastercard (MA) & Visa (V): Both face renewed scrutiny from European regulators over payment network fees, bringing the risk of fines up to 10 % of annual revenues and potentially upending business models.

Connections & Insights

Insight: Trade war rhetoric, especially targeted tariffs on tech and manufacturing giants, is creating sector-wide volatility—pressuring supply chains, triggering insider selling, and compounding competitive challenges in both tech and consumer sectors.

Insight: The growing integration of traditional financial companies into the crypto ecosystem—evidenced by Coinbase’s S&P 500 inclusion and institutional BTC purchases—signals the beginning of mainstream acceptance, which could spur further institutional allocations if volatility and regulatory clarity improve.

Insight: The solar sector is increasingly exposed to legislative risk; the prospect of rescinded tax credits is triggering broad market reevaluations of U.S.-centric clean energy leaders, with ripple effects likely across renewables investment.


Kalshi Adds Solana Support as Fourth Crypto Deposit Option

US prediction market Kalshi just expanded its crypto payment options - SOL joins the party alongside USDC, BTC, and WLD.

What's New:

  • Solana deposits now accepted via SOL-supported wallets
  • Fourth crypto option after USDC, Bitcoin, and Worldcoin
  • Powered by Zero Hash infrastructure partnership

Why Crypto Deposits Matter:

  • $500k deposit limit (vs lower traditional banking limits)
  • Immediate access to funds (no banking delays)
  • Faster funding for time-sensitive prediction markets

Kalshi's Growing Reach:

  • CFTC-regulated prediction platform
  • Covers sports, politics, news, global events
  • Recent Robinhood partnership for prediction markets
  • Available across all 50 US states

The Timing: SOL currently trading at $181.67 (+0.98%) with $7.9B daily volume - solid momentum for the addition.

The Strategy: Adding Solana makes sense:

  • Large, active user base
  • Fast, cheap transactions
  • Growing DeFi ecosystem
  • Appeals to crypto-native traders

Competition Factor: Kalshi vs Polymarket heating up - more crypto payment options = more user acquisition from the decentralized prediction market space.

Bottom Line: Kalshi's clearly going hard after crypto users with multiple token support and higher limits. Smart move as prediction markets explode in popularity and crypto users want seamless on-ramps.

Four different crypto deposit options shows they're serious about capturing the crypto prediction market crowd.

SOL at $181.67, up 0.98% as it joins Kalshi's supported assets


How bad can it get when crypto goes POOF?

Right now there is about 3 trillion market cap in crypto, which is making a lot of people feel significantly richer than they are. supposing crypto market cap goes to near zero, I do not think there has ever been a wealth destruction event like that ever in the history of markets. I think it could have significant impacts on the global economy, causing a very real financial crisis.

AI is probably in a bubble as well, there are very obvious stocks at the very least which are beyond reason, such as tesla and Palantir.

These seem to be a staple in the modern portfolio, and could contribute to an even greater loss of the wealth effect.

the wealth effect would further deteriorate as multiple compression occurs across the board in a bear market.

A lot of people will probably pile on here saying that crypto wont go to zero, but factually there is only one use for blockchain technology right now and that would be a CBDC. CBDC would not have anything to do with the current coins which are being treated as ponzi schemes, and would not be related to the likes of tether or USDC. As matter of fact tether and USDC would likely stop existing as liquidity for them would dry up in an event where there is no coins to gamble on outside of them.

Is the next great financial crisis going to play out something like this? and when will it occur? Historically in great bubbles they were nearing an end when political figures were stoking the fire for personal gain. It is not hard to see this playing out right now. A lot of people find comfort that there is greater acceptance of crypto, but in fact it is a sign that the party is nearing its end. History rhymes.

EDIT: I have responded a lot in here, I think that I have clarified a few things with people and would like to change my wording above. Bitcoin is not a ponzi scheme, it is closer to a pyramid scheme or pump and dump. Not much more to add by responding to new comments, they all seem to be along the same lines. Either you understand or you dont, and I dont have more time to explain ;)


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