Monday, April 29, 2024

Trading today - summary and see ya.

I know sometimes comments disappear, but no worries, I got you covered: Chocobob and darts2

As for my response to you both and many others - all I will say is: good night.

For those who don't know - I figured I'll walk myself and maybe others who are interested in actual trading through a trade I often took over the years. Here's the trade setup: https://old.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cfprvx/daily_discussion_monday_april_29_2024/l1r0c48/

You can see the trade walkthrough here, lots of comments, but I had the place to myself today and felt sedentary, thought it would be educational to some of you. Sorry for bloating the daily thread - my bad, I figured it would be safe as child comments of the setup: https://old.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cfprvx/daily_discussion_monday_april_29_2024/l1r5ryg/

The nonsense worked out exactly as I laid it out at around 6am UTC. Now 63.7 hit, my short filled, I'm fairly sure it will print. It was my alternative target to 64.5 which might still actually hit too. We'll see if there's a drop, nothing tells me otherwise.

But it doesn't have to hit the price exactly, this is not an exact science measured with micrometer scales, even if I got it on the nose, boohoo, you will not see me gloat. I mentioned in my entries that downvotes work as confirmation of my bias and they sure worked again today, but there's no hard feelings.

I get it. Nobody wants to hear that the thing they potentially bought on the pricey side is now going to lose some value for some time.
Believe me - I'm an old hodler (figuratively and I guess literally) and want this to go high as much as the next guy, wouldn't mind a breakout within the next 2-3 years, but I also know how tops work, I know that a slight blip outside the range (like the 73k ATH) is not a new paradigm, it's a rejection wick. I know it's better to build momentum slowly in the middle of the range than bounce around the extremes and ultimately not go anywhere. And I also spot price manipulation this behaviour invites and perpetuates - from a mile away.

And I can only do so much to convince someone from my own experience trading. I try to drop small hints, small packets of information around the time that bull runs start winding down, so maybe some fortunate souls get intrigued and connect the dots on their own time, maybe they will convince themselves using the available data and a mind open to new concepts.

If I just come out straight with an opposing view like 'bull run over', people get entrenched and I become the nonsense clown - believe me, I don't mind that last part - it's human. I would hope I somehow get one person on the right tracks who acted irresponsibly and borrowed money to buy the top to maybe think it over. I did probably become more transparent later in the day as I realised it's likely to play out.

I might have made a mistake thinking this sub will mostly be traders familiar with some of the concepts when in reality it's probably mostly hodlers, so it all fell on deaf ears anyway, but the guys who indeed are going to make it are here, just separated and alone, feeling guilty for - checks notes - feeling bearish in a downtrend. Guys, you're doing ok - use the pushback as confirmation of your setups. And drop the TA, know it, but don't use it. Know that if you have the volume that can stop a candle for what feels like eternity you can make any indicator, any EMA cross, glow, ping any time and any place you want.

As for my predictions today, I'm not from the future, I didn't game the reddit server clock - you can go to any minute candle and check the time and see when I call the action before it happens, when the breakout will occur, when there will be a stop hunt, where a W formation will be formed (using no indicators other than vector candles - and EMAs to read into TA minds). You can see where in places TA would have screamed in your face 'sell, sell, sell, the triangle has fallen' and I knew it was a shake-out the moment I saw it forming. Big red candle just hanging in mid-air below the "support" line for what seems like minutes to then draw you a nice pin down five seconds before close, this is not naturally occurring behaviour, believe me.

Pick a random entry today, go to the chart, check the comment time (don't trust my timestamps, hover over the comment time), see what happened on the charts. You won't see live candle movement, but 1 minute timeframe candles should give you some granularity.

I specifically did it in separate comments so that they couldn't be edited.

Maybe I just got lucky. Maybe you try playing the tokyo spread setup next week and see if the nonsense works. Or it's just some bear nocoiner voodoo.

Maybe I hoped you would indeed put in the effort to check my work, confirm I'm not making stuff up and start connecting the dots, maybe you'd consider your longs today. I know those who wrote to me specifically didn't because you insist nothing came true when everything in fact did come true, I imagine you just assumed the easiest explanation - plenty of clowns in these parts after all. Real traders are among us, it's not just maximalists and contrarians, and there are hodler traders too ;)

Other than the also human reflex to put a time horizon on things which almost always fails - I will always get burned trying to call things in hours and days - on the principle of events every other prediction other than 'when' is 100% correct

I will likely be wrong many times, first thing tomorrow I'll probably zig S&P500 when I should have zagged. Today it worked out, the short will probably print some money, nothing major, I don't want to keep it past 58 anyway, besides if there's enough greed on board it might turn around at 55 and attack 75 again next month to a predictable double top crescendo. Take profits often - there's another trick for you - every 4 years, if only, is a bit lazy in the money making business.

Few parting notes, research this stuff, it's all very simple, I promise:

1) I said it earlier, if you want a breakout, give it time, don't celebrate another 75k or 80k wick inside of 3 months, read it as what it is - it got rejected - AGAIN.

2) Fast move is fake move (it might not burn you right away, but eventually) - just look at how we got from 15k to 73k and tell me it's natural price action - it's 80% absolutely not fair value.

3) The job of a fast move is to entice you into the wrong position or out of the correct position. Doesn't mean: don't bite - but be aware that sharks are circling and up to something, it's an opportunity, try to figure out what the play is. Elevator candles are a setup for you to lose your money, do not let them take it.

4) Price of bitcoin is manipulated by market makers, how else do you think I can tell you the high of the day before the London open - 16 hours before it's hit, I know how they work. Sometimes I will miss the mark, but you can't do it too often if you are to be a profitable trader. And if it did work every time - it would not work at all.

5) You're not buying bitcoin from a guy in China and selling to a guy in Argentina on an exchange. You're buying from the market maker, he sells it to you knowing than later he will move the price down to buy it back cheaper. This is not some conspiracy or a secret, that's why they're in this business. This is done to oil, gold, currency pairs - with the understanding that the smaller the market volume the cheaper it is to move its price and less contested. It's also regulated in certain areas of the economy by relevant financial institutions - it's not like it's some shady shadow economy. Trap the longs, go down, collect liquidation margin, trap the shorts, go up, collect again. That's the business. You might wonder how is that not illegal, I'm still wondering it myself years later - if you don't know how it works and where the profit is in this business, google it. Read the trade walkthrough to understand the three levels approach to exploit this market maker activity.

6) Understand that if they can move it from 15k to 70k, they can also move it to 0, it just doesn't make financial sense to destroy your sandbox, the profit is in "A to B to A". It's not the destination (price) - it's the journey (price volatility) - at the end of the day any bitcoin left in their purse after all this price disco has now appreciated since they first bought it, ka-ching.

7) And for the love of god, next time, promise me this - stop buying every third (final) "bullish pennant" of every larger move - and selling every deep stop hunt shining bright red at the absolute bottoms of the price range. Trade only at the extremes, always buy the bottoms, always sell the tops, trading in the middle of the range is death by a thousand paper cuts.
If everyone does this, I probably lose my source of income, this system needs retail and TA hopefuls to take money from.

All this morning with 1000 dollar stop hunts and immediate pullbacks - I saw people jumping in, jumping off, jumping back in higher, it feels like you're watching someone being tortured.

Try this on paper, try it for real just once with 5 dollars, when you're just about to press the button - buy or sell, doesn't matter - do the opposite of your instinct and see what happens. You will be surprised. Next time you're next to 70k and it's soon enough so that people still hope it's any day now and the greed is still bubbling, short it. If it's some time away (I had high hopes for Autumn 2025, enough time for halving to induce supply constrain), then wait for the breakout and buy the bounce, there is always one - just wait for it.

Know you're flawed, use it to your advantage, beat your greed and fear and keep winning.

Wishing you a slow crawl along the EMAs for a full year before another ATH attempt and a nice juicy breakout of out the 70s zone into the unknown.

Best of luck, The Clown


NDAX Market Report, Key Notes & Crypto Overview

APR 22 - ARP 28

Market Updates

  • The global cryptocurrency market has reached a total market capitalization of CAD $3.16 Trillion.  
  • Bitcoin continues to lead the market with a dominance of 53.3%, followed by Ethereum at 16.6%. 

Crypto News

  • Franklin Templeton Upgrades $380M Tokenized Treasury Fund to Enable Peer-to-Peer Transfers Coindesk
  • EU's anti-money laundering bill passes final vote, here's what's next for crypto-asset service providers The Block
  • Ripple proposes ‘no more than $10M’ in penalties after SEC seeks $1.9B Cointelegraph
  • SEC delays decision on listing and trading spot bitcoin ETF options, asks for public comments The Block
  • ViaBTC's 'epic sat' from fourth Bitcoin halving block sells for 33.3 BTC ($2.13 million) The Block
  • Consensys sues SEC, challenging its approach to Ethereum and seeking court intervention The Block
  • Bitcoin-hating European Central Bank isn't doing much to stop scammers Cointelegraph

Market Moves

  • After slowly regaining lost ground over the past few weeks, Bitcoin continued its slow consolidation. BTC ended the week flat (-0.3%) with a weekly amplitude—volatility of roughly 20X that move; 6%. BTC is now trading somewhere between the CA$84K and $86K levels.

Upcoming Events

  • May – SEC Decision on BlackRock's Ether Spot ETF Decision 

Closer to peace treaty; Azeris discuss returning Artsvashen \\ Hundreds of officials charged w/ corruption; Prosecutors reprimanded \\ EU shares secret banking data; laundering \\ Qatar & Saudi trips \\ European Commission visit \\ 171 buses coming \\ ~$0.5 billion forfeiture: Kocharyan & Tsarukyan

9-minute read.

Pashinyan and Blinken spoke over the phone

Azerbaijan's April 19 agreement to launch the border demarcation and to use the 1991 Almaty as the main principle for the entire border could pave the way for the signing of a peace agreement. Baku previously insisted on not mentioning the rules for future demarcation in the peace document.

Pashinyan and Blinken spoke on Sunday. They discussed AM-US relations, the April 5 meeting in Brussels, and the AM-AZ peace process.

Pashinyan expressed satisfaction with the activation of AM-US bilateral relations and the agreements reached on April 5.

Pashinyan described the April 19 delimitation agreement as a positive development. The parties emphasized the importance of following the 2022 agreements reached in Prague.

Pashinyan's office says the recognition of territorial integrity based on the Almaty Declaration and a demarcation based on Almaty paves the way to a peace treaty.

Pashinyan and Blinken also discussed the Crossroads of Peace logistics project that aims to lift the decades-long blockade on Armenia. Pashinyan said the implementation of CoP would implement the agreements reached in July 2023 in Brussels regarding the unblocking of communications in the region with full respect for the sovereignty of states.

source,

Blinken and Aliyev spoke over the phone

Blinken commended Aliyev for the April 19 announcement that Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to use the 1991 Alma Ata declaration as the basis for border delimitation and emphasized its importance to the two sides concluding a durable and dignified peace.

Blinken urged Aliyev to keep up the momentum with Pashinyan, reiterating U.S. willingness to support those efforts.

Blinken welcomed Azerbaijan’s release of Gubad Ibadoglu to house arrest as a humanitarian gesture and called for his full, expeditious release. Blinken urged Azerbaijan to adhere to its international human rights obligations and commitments and release those unjustly detained in Azerbaijan.

source, source,

over 50% of the border marking is complete on parts of the Tavush-Gazakh border

Based on geodetic measurements on the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan, 35 border markers have been installed as of April 29.

source,

Kazakhstan will host the next bilateral AM-AZ meeting of foreign ministers

Armenia gave its approval on Monday to hold the next meeting in Almaty. Kazakhstan will be a host but not a mediator, said the Kazakh government.

Aliyev's offices expressed hope that the peace agreement will be signed "within months" but there are still "unresolved issues".

source, source, source, video,

Azerbaijani government commission expresses readiness to cooperate with Armenia to locate the remains of Azeris and Armenians who went missing during the 90s war

COMMISSION: We are ready to cooperate with Armenia to search for missing persons from both sides while maintaining an atmosphere of transparency and mutual trust.

source,

Azerbaijani parliament MP suggests returning the Artsvashen exclave to Armenia

Rasim Musabekov is a member of the parliamentary foreign relations committee. During an interview with Azerbaijan's public television, while discussing the AM-AZ border delimitation, he suggested returning Artsvashen to Armenia or exchanging it.

MUSABEKOV: The issue of exclaves requires some sort of compromise or trade-off because it's a mutual issue. If we give a road to Armenia [to Artsvashen] it must also come with gas, water, and electricity infrastructure. This is not an easy task so in my opinion exchanging exclaves is a better option. //

After the interview, an Aliyev-linked media outlet ran an online survey on Telegram regarding the idea of returning Artsvashen to Armenia [survey not ended yet].

One political analyst, Aziz Alibeili, criticized the Azeri MP for Artsvashen comments and accused him of giving a "pro-Pashinyan" speech.

AZIZ: The MP knows well that if Armenians gain control of Bashkend [Artsvashen], they will pose danger to 3 more [Azeri] villages along with 28 others, and the entire area that stretches all the way to Ganja. //

source,

opposition continues to shut down roads in Yerevan and other parts of Armenia in protest to the border delimitation process

ARF MP Gegham Manukyan was on the Armavir-Gyumri road where a group of protesters used a truck to block the road. An official gave them two minutes to open it "before the police comes." The MP Manukyan urged the police to arrest PM Pashinyan for "illegal processes" in Tavush.

Several drivers were unhappy about the closed road. One angry driver approached the MP and called him the "biggest inflictor of damage".

DRIVER: Ես բետոնի վարորդ եմ, որ բետոնը սառի, դու պատասխան կտա՞ս դրա համար:

ARF MP: եթե հիմա բետոնը կարողանում էս վաճառել, վաղը չես կարողանալու:

DRIVER: Քո գործը չէ, դո՞ւ ես փրկությունը հայ ազգի, դուք ամենամեծ վնաս տվողներն եք:

source, source,

the latest Russian laws on tightening migration rules will make it practically impossible for many Armenian and other migrants to reside in Russia without breaking the law: expert 

More requirements to enter, and new requirements for more frequent steps to take while already in Russia. One legal expert believes many unsuspecting migrants, or those who do not hire a lawyer, won't even know they are violating the law. Many Armenians will be simply unable to enter Russia.  

The expert advises the Armenian government to sign migrant workforce contracts with other states, including Russia, to regulate the outflow of Armenian migrant workers. The government can help groups of migrants to travel for work, while the labor attachés can take care of their rights abroad. Kyrgyzstan is doing something similar with South Korea, Poland, the UK, and the Netherlands. 

According to Russian opposition outlet RainTV, a newly proposed Russian law would require migrants to sign a pledge of loyalty before entering the country. It would include a promise to respect Russian "traditional values" such as marriage being between a man and a woman.   

source, 

Armenian delegation visited Saudi Arabia 

Armenia's labor & high-tech ministries sent delegations to discuss the development of human capital, workforce productivity, and the discrepancy between labor market demand and supply. 

The Saudi government presented its 2030 Plan to develop the media industry with 140,000 new jobs. 

The parties agreed to exchange experience. 

source, 

Armenian delegation visited Qatar 

FM Mirzoyan and his envoy discussed the Crossroads of Peace, economic cooperation, AM-QA relations, etc. In 2023 Qatar established a resident embassy in Yerevan.

video,  source,  https://hetq.am/hy/article/166122

European Commission Director General for Neighbourhood & Enlargement Negotiations will visit Transcaucasian republics this week

In Yerevan, Gert Jan Koopman will discuss the results of the April 5 meeting and the strengthening of EU-AM relations, including stepping up sectoral cooperation and EU investments in the country, as well as EU support to reforms and to the integration of displaced people.

He will also launch a joint EU-German project to improve access to energy efficiency and sustainable energy solutions in rural communities in Armenia.

source,

Turkey is negotiating a liquid LNG gas deal with U.S. oil giant ExxonMobil to reduce reliance on Russia: Financial Times

They want to purchase 2.5 million tons annually as part of a long-term contract. Turkey is seeking to build a "new supply portfolio" that will make it less reliant on any single partner, Turkey's Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar told the FT in an interview.

source, source,

prosecutors sharply increased the number of cases sent to court in 2023

Year: Cases closed/Filed in court/Trials concluded

2021: xK/xK/2.9K

2022: 19K/4.4K/3.2K

2023: 33K/8.5K/5K

Tens of billions of drams were recovered, mostly during the investigation phase.

... Prosecutor General's office is taking steps to prevent unnecessary trial delays

There were instances of prosecutors not showing up to trials and delaying the process. The Prosecutor General's office reprimanded 2 prosecutors last year. To address the problem, an order was issued to form groups of prosecutors for complex trials to prevent disruption in the event one prosecutor is absent.

The Prosecutor General's office also urged the SCJ to investigate other causes of unjustified trial delays. They urged SCJ to reprimand 10 judges for causing delays. 5 of the petitions were turned down, a decision is pending on 2, and 3 judges are under investigation.

Prosecutors also fought against violations made by investigators; they filed 551 complaints against them. 41 were reprimanded and 7 were charged with felonies.

... 152 public officials were charged with corruption crimes in 2023

Last year the prosecutor's office heard 1,404 corruption cases (+56% YoY).

Public officials charged with crimes:

2022: 63

2023: 152 (mostly minor crime)

The Prosecutor General's office views the increase as a result of more efficient investigation.

more, more,

the international community has begun to more thoroughly cooperate and share data with Armenian law enforcement to investigate money laundering: Prosecutor General

VARDAPETYAN: Last week we hosted an 11-member delegation from the EU, Switzerland, and Luxemburg. These are the countries where Armenia's financial resources have flowed to; we have information about bank accounts tied to Armenia. Today we have contacts with these countries at the highest levels and I'm happy to inform you that they have begun to respond to our inquiries.

For example, Austria has transferred 12,000 pages of baking data as part of a large investigation. Switzerland... it seemed impossible yesterday, but thanks to our new communication approach, this is possible today.

We prefer not to publicly discuss cases when there is an active investigation behind closed doors. For example, in the case of the large narcotics bust, there is an ongoing international investigation. We are gathering information from the transit countries to build a solid case that can withstand the defense's counterarguments in court.

Regarding the right to a speedy trial. We are doing everything possible to maintain high intensity. There is an institute of plea and remorse that significantly simplifies the case so we are actively using those tools to close simple cases and send to court only the serious ones.

Still, we are not satisfied with the speed of trials, it's still not a matter of "months". We need to work on the session schedule and prioritize cases based on the severity of the crime. Years ago, when I was a student, I visited a U.S. federal court for practice to observe a massive fraud trial. The judge said he would finish the case in 6 months, by holding Monday to Friday sessions. I said there is no way you can finish it in 6. He insisted he could. I later checked and indeed the trial was done within 6 months. This was one of the eldest and strictest federal judges, so no corners were cut. We need to reform the trial schedule in Armenia to prioritize based on the severity of the crime.

... EU feels more comfortable with transferring wanted persons to Armenia: Prosecutor General

VARDAPETYAN: The ice is melting between Armenia and European countries. Many countries have been transferring persons, and we do the same for them; it's a process based on mutual trust. Trust is both strong and fragile, and we've taken steps over the past year to earn their trust by operating transparently. We have vowed to similarly transfer persons wanted by European countries.

It's different in the case of the US because we don't have a bilateral agreement. At my request, on April 15 we hosted a delegation from the US Justice Department and State Department to discuss the signing of this agreement to enable exchange. We have already transferred 5 persons to the US based on non-bilateral agreements, but the US has not yet transferred anyone to us. Their explanation for refusal is that there is no AM-US interstate agreement that would enable the transfer. [Dog is safe for now?]

source,

... why are some trials taking years with no justice at the end?

VARDAPETYAN: We recently investigated how one of the trials was held in court. There were 21 sessions for this case about a medium-severity crime. There were several defendants. The trial process was sabotaged because during each session one of the lawyers of one of the defendants would decide not to show up. The trial was delayed until the defendants qualified for the statute of limitation. What's missing here is a stricter work mechanism. We need to give judges more powers to address unjustified absences.

source, full session with Prosecutor General,

Prosecutor General presented the list of allegedly illegal properties and cash they want to seize from ex-President Kocharyan & family as part of an asset forfeiture case:

💰 25 real estate properties, many in central Yerevan

💰 5 vehicles

💰 Participation (shares) in 16 local and foreign legal entities (Toyota dealership, Orange-fitness, Nairi Insurance, Congress Hotel, Play City)

💰 Over $4 million in deposits and securities

💰 The transfer of loan ownership, worth around ֏10 billion ($25 million)

💰 Over ֏35 billion ($90 million) that originated from illegal activities //

... and the asset forfeiture case against Armenia's richest businessman Gagik Tsarukyan, according to Prosecutor General:

💰 72 real estate properties

💰 42 vehicles

💰 ֏348M ($0.9 million) worth of unidentified vehicles

💰 The sum of the market value of 10 real estate properties [Tsarukyan can keep the houses but must pay their value]

💰 Shares in 39 companies [value isn't mentioned]

💰 Loan ownership of ֏63.3B ($163 million)

💰 ֏16.8B ($43.3 million)

💰 ֏86.5B ($223 million) //

CAN I HAVE HIS BITCOIN GPUs?

source, source, source,

apartment prices continue to climb in Yerevan: Q1 2024

Number of apartment transactions +42%

Districts where the number of apartment transactions grew: Avan, Arabkir, Malatia, Shengavit.

Prices also increase (from most expensive to least):

Kentron +13%

Arabkir +15%

Zeytun +9%

Norq +16%

Erebuni +15%

Shengait +12%

Davtashen +16%

Ajapsandal +11%

Malatia +9%

Avan +13%

Nubarashen +10%


Land transactions in Armenia +12%

Land transactions in Yerevan -7%


Rent contracts in Armenia +21%

Rent contracts in Yerevan +46% (the sharp increase is possibly influenced by the new enforcement of rental income tax)

source,

video of an Azerbaijani man being rescued after his head got stuck in a water container

source,

Yerevan has signed the contract to deliver 171 more buses this year

The funds have been allocated. The buses should arrive within 180 days.

source,

a student performs on guitar during a bonfire meeting between PM Pashinyan and participants of a table tennis tournament: VIDEO

video,

Yerevan Marathon was held on Sunday after a 5-year hiatus: PHOTOS

It includes a "full" 42-kilometer run as well as 5-21 km runs for adults and a 1 km mini-marathon for children.

source,