Monday, December 12, 2022

Cardano Daily Discussion - December 13, 2022

Hello everyone,

Welcome to the Cardano Daily Discussion!

The standard sub rules apply here (see sidebar), with the exception that price discussion is allowed in this thread, though we encourage you to try not to make this the focus and talk about the project itself. Please ask questions, help others and be civil - be sure to get involved in Project Catalyst too!

If you're new, please make sure you're read through the newbies guide and share it with others (use the ?newbies comment command to reference it).

⚠️ Scam Warning ⚠️

Please read the Cybersecurity guidelines for Cardano Users.

There are ongoing giveaway scams on youtube and many scammers lurking in Cardano's social channels impersonating ambassadors/moderators/official staff contacting users via direct messages.

For example, searching 'cardano' on youtube and sorting by most recent upload date shows several giveaway scams running (all videos in screenshot are scams):

Ongoing 'giveaway' scams on Youtube

The youtube scams are automated; use stolen footage usually of Charles Hoskinson and are restreamed so to appear to be 'live'; appear to have many watchers (which are bots); use bought hacked channels and are edited to appear like official channels.

Do not be fooled!

To be clear:

  • ⚠️ There is no such thing as a Cardano giveaway
  • ⚠️ Never share your seed phrase with ANYONE
  • ⚠️ Never send ADA to someone promising to send you more ADA back
  • ⚠️ You will never be contacted by ambassadors/moderators/staff

Please report scams on the Cardano Fraud Detection Bureau.

⚠️ Scam Warning ⚠️


CPI, FOMC - WTF Do They Matter

Excuse my language, but they do matter.

This week traders will all focus on CPI on Tuesday and the Fed’s interest rate hikes decision on Wednesday. What Powell says and does on Wednesday will reverberate through the markets - not just TradFi - because of the rising correlations between major L1 tokens and US equity indices.

What’s happening: This week brings two huge economic events, the first being the November CPI on Tuesday at 13:00 UTC, and the second being the FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday at 19:00 UTC.

  • The FOMC decision will be followed by Jerome Powell's all-important press conference afterward.

BTC’s Correlation Coefficients with SPX, IXIC, DXY, and VIX, per IntoTheBlock data

Why it matters: As of December 13, Bitcoin and Ether’s correlation coefficients with the S&P 500 were at 0.07 and 0.15 on December 13. With the Nasdaq, they were at 0.18 and 0.27. These coefficients were all in negative zones a week ago, implying whatever moves equities will inevitably move the largest L1 tokens — and therefore all crypto markets.

  • CPI reports and FOMC meetings in the past few months have seen daily swings of as much as 5% for the benchmark S&P 500 Index.
  • This time, JPMorgan Chase expects the index — in a best-case scenario — could rally as much as 10% on a softer CPI reading — implying the same number could go the other way.

Scenarios for the 14 December FOMC meeting according to ING

What to expect: In terms of inflation, Some economists expect 0.5% CPI inflation for November and 0.3% core CPI inflation. Last month, October CPI came in at 0.4% and core came in at 0.3%. In terms of rate hikes, a 50bp hike at the Dec. 14 FOMC meeting is the strong call from both financial markets and economists.

  • After implementing 375bp of rate hikes since March, including consecutive 75bp moves at the previous four meetings, Federal Reserve officials are of the view that they’ve made “substantial progress” on tightening policy so it is time to “step down” to lower increments.
  • Nonetheless, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the team have been at pains to point out that despite smaller individual steps, the “ultimate level of rates will need to be somewhat higher than thought at the time of the September meeting”.

The dollar is down about 10% off of its October highs. (Screenshot from Tradingview)

Zoom in: October's CPI print came about in large part because of a stronger dollar, lower equities, and higher yields leading up to the report. This made the inflation number come in lower and made the market believe that the Fed would soon pivot.

  • Stocks are now back up and yields are down, encouraging people to borrow and spend. The dollar is down about 10% off of its October highs. A weaker dollar, higher equities, and lower yields, are all setting the conditions for another hot report and crazy swing in TradFi.
  • The move upward in the dollar previously had served to mask the true amount of inflation in the US and make inflation appear worse in places like the EU.
  • Now, with the dollar coming back down, these same goods and services will cost about 10% more than they would have a month ago. This alone is enough to increase CPI by between 1% and 2% over the next year.
  • The last time this happened, it set the conditions for the next CPI report to come in hot, dashing any hopes of a Fed pivot and sending stocks to new lows and yields to new highs.

Between 1971—1972, the Fed funds rate had varied between 3.3% and 5.5%. By the end of the decade, the Fed funds rate was at 14%. Chairman Volcker subsequently increased the funds rate to 17.5% by April, and then to 19% in January 1981 to counter the inflation.

CPI YoY between 1970 - 1979 (Data per inflationdata.com)

What they’re saying: In Jackson Hole this summer, Powell acknowledged the 1970s-era trap of cutting rates too soon (leading to the dollar falling, speculative demand surging, and inflation roaring back). Several officials such as James Bullard and John Williams have suggested the Fed may not be in a position to cut interest rates until 2024.

  • Back in 1970s, inflation proved to be much more stubborn than policymakers anticipated. By and large, they kept policy rates too low for too long.
  • The lesson from the 1970s and early 1980s is that policymakers would get a few good CPI reports and then cut rates, and then inflation would come roaring back.
  • Not that history is bound to repeat itself, but sound familiar?

Potential inflation risk factors (per Academy Securities data)

The bottom line: Look, we’re traders. We’re here to make money and it doesn’t matter which way the market goes. I understand for global inflations to come back down and have market participants react positively to financial conditions — and therefore potentially bring another bull market to cryptocurrencies — it would mean a lot of people would have to suffer from the consequences, such as cutting down the tight labor market in the US — implying a lot of people are going to lose their jobs, especially the poor and middle class.

  • This may not sound entirely ethical, but don’t you tell me bankers, politicians, and regulators are angels.
  • The above diagram illustrates potential catalysts affecting inflation — something to think about when you DYOR (do your own research).
  • So should you make any portfolio bets off of the Fed this week? Perhaps, or perhaps not. The message is that you want more liquid assets such stablecoins and fewer crypto as part of your asset allocation mix.
  • IMHO HODL is not the answer — it’s intentionally letting profitable opportunities slide — and an excuse for not learning about how money, credit, and debt work in reality which affect the global markets — including and especially crypto. (Where do you think whales get their money from?)

Event reference link: Bounty Creator


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New Idea for Crypto currency (DOES NOT EXIST YET)

If this coin succeed and gets recognized as a new crypto currency I feel this could open doors for many people.

I would like there to be an coin (new currency) that can be earned by installing software (we can create) on a device and then earn it ( mine it) by moving your device(by changing the x.y.z cordinates)

The idea is simple.

**Let me ilustrate the idea.**We need a blockchain and connect it to a database. And we need a score table for the x.y.z cordinates. Then the idea is like bitcoin but then it can be mined by moving your device. Ill explane.

for as far as i know bitcoins are mined by solving a cryptographic puzzle. When you solve the puzzle you earn whats inside of a block. And a new block is added to the chain.

My idea is to generate the hash for the cryptographic puzzle by moving your smart device (changing the x.y.z cordinates). So for evry movement registered by your device you wil earn hash to solve the cryptographic puzzle. When a user succeeds in solving the cryptographic puzzle they earn whats inside it and a new block wil be added to the chain. Coins and maby even ietems that wil increase the hash you get per movement by for example 4% or an ietem that wil give the user 3% more coins when successfully mining a block.

And we need an app for the overview and software to mine the blocks.

Safety first:

Safety is very important!

HighscoreSo you're account will be anonymous and wil be given a random generated number to acces the high scores this highscore ID number can be changed random by the user at each given time.

Chat 256 bit encryptedThe chat system in the app is not connected to your high score number it hase a different ID number to Chat with other users witch can be reset by the user to generate another ID at each given time.

Maket placeThe market place (Coin plaza) have the same option as it comes down to safety you can generate a difrent ID number to make purchases and sell or buy things. Plus you can generate new address each time you want to send or receive coins from other users.

**Mine a block:**Simply you can earn a series of of answers for the cryptographic puzzle by each movement for example 4 answers each movement depending on the changes of the x,y,z coordinates of the device that is mining. I beleve that with bitcoin there is an value that needs to be searched for for example a code with letters and numbers that only have one hash output. And by mining it you try to find the hash out put of the code. ##Please correct me if im wrong##When the user finds this answer the system automatically generate a new block and the user earn the coin that is in the block you mine. The more you move your device there could be a combination set. Example: if like 3 movements are registered then they add them up in some kind of score system and pay out for example 3 movements = 12 answers generated.We can even make a second coin like a secondary coin witch can be mined by achieving or completing a quest witch wil give you a item that can mine this secondary coin.

**The app:**In the app there could be several things .

1: Overview page (in the app)

Where you can see in one view how many devices are connected to you'r account.

  1. So connected devices. Wil be shown in the overview.
  2. You can see how much hash total is earned on each divice in the overview.
  3. You you can see how much coin you mined on each device in the overview .
  4. You you can see how much hash you are generating each mili second.
  5. You you can see the battery levels on each device that is connected to your account and see it in the overview.
  6. You can also see witch items you are using that provide a boost on certain stats (for example increased hashrate by 3% item).

2: Quest/achivements page (in the app).

Where you can view the quests and achievements.

  1. There can be quests added like move your device 3 kilometers a day for a a week to earn an special ietem that give a boost ( walk 3 kilometers).
  2. Items of all classes can be added like easy, medium, hard, rare , legendary or even more classes!
  3. For say there could be achievements like open the app 100 times for easy reward open the app 300 times for midium reward, 1000 times for hard ect.
  4. Ietems go in the inventory page in the app .

Quests like:

  • use the app before 09:00 in the morning 20 times for an item.
  • walk 20 minutes before 09:00 for a special item.-create an account before a specific date to earn a item.-take a walk on this specific day for 30 minutes and earn this item ( example item ).

and Many more!!!

Acievements:

  • use the app and touch 1000 times for this achievement (example item)
  • earn 10 coins for this avievement reward (example item)
  • walk 100.000 steps for this achievement reward (example item)
  • walk 120.000 totally steps for this achievement reward (example item)-open the app 10 times for this reward (example item)

any Many more!!!

3: Inventory page (in the app).

The inventory mage speaks for it self. this is where you store al earned / bought items and artifacts. also level up items.

This page in the app can be opened to see your current owed items and the items you can wield at a certain moment in time.

There are different type of items you can earn by completing quests and achievements. The items will provide special bonuses like 3% more hash of an x% more coins when breaking a block items.

Some items can be traded!

4: Highscores / ranking list (in the app).

The more coin you make the more you level up.Your ID in the high scores Is save and no one can track you by it. you can even generate a new ID at each given time.

In the high scores you can see the user with the best hash rate per year/month/week/day/hour/minute/second (LIVE).In the high scores you can see the user with the best hash per second of all times (LIVE).In the high scores you can see the user with the Most coin (LIVE).

###5. Wallet/ coin (in the app) .Personal address ID can be changes at every times.A wallet page where you can send and receive coins to an address and receive.includes a address generator to generate a adres to send coins to.

###6. Central bank (in the app).where you can store coins in your save with acces code .And retrieve the coins by acces code.

###7. Coin plaza (in the app).The market place where you can trade in coin for Evry single currency that exists.comes with a balance coding that wil protect you from selling expensive coins for coin or currency that is worth less.

  • Ability to see all coins that are available on the market and currency's.
  • A buy option (ability to buy coins/or another currency).
  • A sell option (ability to sell coins or another currency).
  • place where you can sell and trade items.

###8. Profile (in the app)Ability to make a profile with a unique ID number that does not match you other Identification numbers like the id number for ranking or the market place or the chat.

###9. Chat (in the app)Chat speeks for it self. it needs a 256 Encryption. Evry user wil have an unique chat ID number that can be random generated at each given time.

###10. Vote system (in the app)A voting system by witch you can vote on ideas.Users wil earn rewards for the best idea.The best ideas wil be picked and added to the code. you wonder how?By voting on and idea you can give the staff the ability when it have more that 51% of all the votes. to add the code.Then before the code is added the community can vote again to confirm that the code is safe and then it is added to the code. This will make the code (software) better and better.

  • Staff voting category.
  • User vote category.

###11. Clan (in the app)

  • You can join a clan in the app and each special clan items in the quest and achievement page in the app.
  • Also add a clan chat.
  • Clan profile.
  • Clan wars ( you can add a walking competition walk 3 times for 20 minutes per day for a month and the best clans wil win items or artifacts.)

###12. Set up shop (in the app)You can set up a setup shop(may be with bluetooth that when you walk pass some one in person you walk pass and you see someone around is selling cigarettes for example in real life or something else like a lighter you can buy a cigarette trade with him and buy it from that person. Yhe app wil confirm that its the right person. JUST AN IDEA FOR REAL LIFE TRADING)

  • Anti scam: report option witch you can report a user that scammed you and people around you can help you report this user and than the staff wil look in to it and freeze the user his account or many even delete it if it have more then one reports. The staff can do this by voting together on that user. the user is able to start over.

###13. Staff (of the coin and the app)Each staff member is voted on to earn there ranks and can earn points and lose points for good behavior and bad behavior.

  • The staff is devided in different ranks.
  • The director is the highest rank.
  • And a user can become director by good behavior and earning points.

###14. Donation category (in the app)People can donate in Every currency that is used in the world.So all payment options must be open for every currency also crypto curency's.This donations can be used by the staff to develop the app. The donations can be used when the staff brings up an ideain the voting system witch then the users can vote on and then the donations become free and they can use it to upgrade the software or app if this is needed.

###15. Events categorie (in the app)

  • Dubble hash weekend or double hash day on a special day for example holidays.
  • Lotery event.
  • Special holiday items.

******PLease leat me know what you think!?******


Watch out for fake gurus..c0tt0nc4ndyta

So for the last year I followed someone who I thought was incredible. The best trader in the world. Incredibly accurate. Altruistic. Honest.

I'm making this post to aware people be very careful who you follow.

Things to be cautious of:

"Reversed engineered" the market. Hah big NO! markets have been around since 1871 or so. People like Elliot Wave guy spent countless hours understanding patterns. Nobody is going to suddenly come up with new ones that revolutionize day trading. This is a blatant lie that will hook you into thinking someone is a superhero, doing what nobody else has done.

Free courses - rarely people are altruistic. There's always a hidden motive. Free courses = viewers = buy my extremely expensive courses to unlock more or join my patreon or use my affiliate link. There is also no certainty these free courses are actually accurate. They take a lot of time.

Retrospective analysis - If the majority of what you see is someone looking at the past and explaining it.. well how useful is that? anybody can do that. Don't place too much weight on someone's understanding of events that have already happened. It doesn't make them a genius.

Live streams - can be faked. You may just be seeing what they want you to see. Keep this in mind. This will be more obvious in the video linked further down.

A zero tolerance to any other trader or system - this may be due to fear of being exposed, an over confidence/major ego issue (which when trading is a terrible trait).

Poorly explained content - this can be the result of poorly understood concepts or a way of making something appear complex to draw people in so they think they are onto something amazing nobody else will bother learning. The reality is, this is a bad teacher or someone who didn't spend enough time learning these concepts themselves.

Now, my findings, if anybody has followed or thinking about following c0tt0nc4ndayta.. I'd advise against it. I can't attest to whether he actually IS a good trader, maybe, but he is a fraud.

"The most accurate day trader in the world", who reversed engineered the markets over the past 10 years and created this new day trading science. A new Era of day traders.

Information I have uncovered thus far:

- Took dopetrades/tradersumos course 22 Sept 2018.

- Asks tradersumo newbie questions on twitter about breakouts etc (which if you'd be doing it for 10 years with your own science would not be necessary).

- Releases bitcoin course on YouTube 20 October 2018

- Proceeds to release more courses charging upwards of 50k for them

- Then, releases courses for free on youtube a week after reducing the price to 10k, giving no refunds.

- Kicks a whole bunch of people from discord who do not appreciate this dishonesty

- Starts up a patreon which he then gets 40k a month and that enables someone to join this exclusive discord

- Signal pump and dump group, "road to 1 million" signal bot group, all goes terribly. People lose a bunch of money. Blames programmer/bot. Programmer says no issues with it.

- Discord now free, partnered with bitget, large influx of people now joining discord and signing up with his affliate link

- Lies about his trades, may actually not even trade that much at all considering he makes so much money elsewhere. But we'll never know as he will never post his PnL

- Any mention of any other traders = instant ban. Scared of being exposed?

Video of dopetrades exposing him:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Tj5TwQ-IW8&ab_channel=TraderSumo


Welcome #Crypto Lovers to our weekend #Bitcoin Cash Meetup. You can RSVP from below link.. https://www.meetup.com/in_crypto_we_trust/events/xmdtwsydcqbvb/

https://i.redd.it/gmfr8gauog5a1.jpg