🔮 Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 9–13, 2025 🔮

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🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍

📱 Apple WWDC & Tech Momentum
Apple’s annual Worldwide Developers Conference kicks off Monday with CEO Tim Cook set to discuss new products, services, and likely AI initiatives—tracks should watch include impacts on $AAPL and AI-related stocks

🧨 GameStop Eyed for Crypto Pivot
GameStop (a meme-stock darling) reports earnings Tuesday. Markets are watching for updates on its $500M bitcoin investment and potential pivot toward crypto-driven revenue streams

🇨🇳 U.S.–China Trade Talks in London
High-level trade dialogue begins Monday between U.S. and Chinese representatives in London, offering possible relief to trade tensions and providing a lift to risk assets

📉 Key Inflation Data Midweek
Wednesday brings the May CPI release—crucial for assessing tariff-driven inflation trends and likely to influence Fed policy outlook ahead of next month’s meeting

💹 Oil Markets React to Trade Uncertainty
Oil prices are stable to slightly up ahead of trade talks, as Brent holds around $66/barrel—reflecting balanced supply concerns and hopes for easing global tensions

🌐 G7 Summit and Global Policy Risks
G7 finance ministers convene in Canada (50th anniversary), tackling trade strains, Russia–Ukraine, and inflation. Global macrospoilers could trigger renewed volatility

📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊

📅 Monday, June 9

• Apple WWDC begins (CEO keynote)
• U.S.–China trade talks start in London

📅 Tuesday, June 10

• GameStop Q2 earnings (+ bitcoin update)
• NFIB Small Business Index (6:00 AM ET)

📅 Wednesday, June 11

• 8:30 AM ET – Consumer Price Index (May) Watch for inflation signal from tariffs.
• 8:30 AM ET – Core CPI (May) Core inflation trend under scrutiny.

📅 Thursday, June 12

• 8:30 AM ET – Producer Price Index (May) Early check on wholesale inflation
• 8:30 AM ET – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims

📅 Friday, June 13

• 10:00 AM ET – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June, preliminary) Consumer mood and tariff impact insights

⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is for informational/educational purposes only. Not financial advice. See a licensed advisor before making investing decisions.

📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis

First to the Key

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Preface

• Team America (plus Ryan Cohen) have reverse-engineered market algorithms and can precisely predict underlying stock movements and prices.
• Team America can induce future volatility with large trades.
• Using this information and ability, Team America have constructed a game for retail to play.
• The purpose of the game is to enact the greatest wealth transfer in history, the UNO reverse.
• The Butterfly squeeze is intended to provide a large cash infusion to play the game.
• Greg is Keith Gill
• YOLO!

Part 1 of the San Francisco NFT was a countdown to the the May/June squeezes using the eight days of Passover and the lunar phases. Players were guided to follow Buck the white rabbit (7:41 in The Matrix) up and over the bridge. The May 15th first-quarter moon represented the finish line for the first squeeze, which is apparent when overlaying the Golden Gate bridge with GME. Not only did Ryan use the days of Passover as a countdown, but he stylized the NFT as the Israelites crossing the Red Sea in Exodus.

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On December 11th Bill Pulte pinned an out-of-season photo of the Michigan Mackinac Bridge, signaling The Requel was upcoming.

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Fast forward to today and we've almost completed the double rainbow formation seen in the NFT, which should come to a rapid finish after the June 8th Sunday sunset and a $24 close on Monday.

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The June 8th sunset is seen three other times across the tinfoil universe: a Bill Pulte X post, the banner at the top of the Gmerica NFT page, and the final page in Teddy and the Corn Stand announcing the emergence of the best stock stand in the world: Butterfly.

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In his Sunday June 30th X post at sunset, Bill arranged items to depict the release of the Butterfly modified plan of reorganization and GameStop merger agreement. Inside the Butterfly box are all of the assets Ryan has gathered into the former BBBY estate. According to further tinfoil below, Butterfly should emerge on Monday, followed by a $24 GME close and M&A announcement Tuesday. Bill used a tennis ball and golf clubs to represent the June 11th full-moon and U.S. Open starting on June 12th.

The May 15th first-quarter moon was used as finish signal for the first squeeze last year. The June 11th full moon may be a similar signal to sell the Butterfly squeeze and first GME squeeze on June 10th.

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Keith symbolized Butterfly's emergence with hotdog Jesus tinfoil back in April. Keith used a hotdog with ketchup to represent the crucifixion, and a Kirkland #3 golf ball to represent the 3 days and 3 nights Jesus spent in the tomb. Using modern counting of days and nights, Jesus would've emerged on Monday, not Sunday.

Keith replied to his first post with a #69 golf cart, signaling Butterfly would emerge on 6/9. On Friday June 6th, Keith started the 3 day and 3 night countdown to Monday June 9th with a "Sweet Jesus" post.

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A countdown to the June 2025 Requel is also illustrated in the NFT page banner, starting with Independence Day 2024 in the foreground and ending with the June Requel in the background, Buck's final destination. All of the Gmerica NFTs contain iconic American landmarks, and GME's December-January double-top is represented by the iconic double-top of Mt. Rainier.

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In Keith's latest post, Keith asked himself what the puppy was waiting for. On the merger agreement page in Teddy Gets a Puppy, the puppy food priced at $24 represents the closing price of GME used to calculate the share exchange ratio. In other words, Tuesday is the earliest possible day for the M&A announcement, assuming GME crashes to $24 on Monday.

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Back in August Team America published the Requel cheat codes in spreadsheet format. Taking a closer look at the spreadsheet, we can see the suggested prices Team America manufactured for retail. The rows are purposefully repeated to signal the double squeeze pattern. The $100 double squeeze will be quickly followed by MOASS.

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Importantly, a spreadsheet for Butterfly was also provided. At the end of October GameStop replied to Milkshake's Switch collection resembling a butterfly. GameStop ran the numbers and disclosed Butterfly would squeeze to around $400.

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Back in June 2022, Ryan expressed his love for China on X and posted the Asian noodles emoji, then followed up with a post about China's highspeed rail network. Almost one year later, Ryan wrote the Chinese characters for ni hao, the Chinese expression for greeting someone for the first time or trying to grab their attention.

On the first few pages of Teddy Says Money Doesn't Grow on Trees, the final Teddy book in the series, we can see Ryan's Chinese crush attempting to grab the reader's attention by waving and looking straight on. There's also references to Asian noodles and the China Railway CR400AF Fuxing highspeed train.

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Later in the book, Ryan shows us the shareholder vote and closing transaction for the GME/Butterfly acquisition will occur shortly after the Apple Worldwide Developers Conference in June. The Game Over posters indicate the date of the closing transaction is possibly the peak for MOASS and the end of the game. Presumably the June 12th shareholders meeting will have to be partially adjourned to vote on the acquisition.

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A few pages later we se more references to China and its highspeed rail network, this time with squeeze and MOASS imagery (dinosaurs shaped like a classic squeeze), indicating the Requel will be a rapid event. If 22,000 miles is taken as 22,000 minutes, all four squeezes including MOASS will happen in just under two weeks. Ryan also supplied us with a MOASS price target of $485 ($1940 post-split).

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On the final page we see Ryan and his family eating ice cream while swearing jackets, indicating the Requel will be complete by end of spring. Including June 9th as a start date to the Requel, it's 12 days until the final day of spring on June 20th, almost two weeks.

Keith also gave us a potential timeline for the Requel in his TIME post. 1:09 has already been deciphered to 69 seconds, or June 9th. The number four is symbolic of the four seasons, and June is the month of the summer solstice; therefore, 4:20 may represent the Requel end date on the June 20th summer solstice.

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Putting all of the above together we can create a rough squeeze chart. I put the second $100 squeeze on earnings because the tinfoil supports the first squeeze and MOASS peaking on dates of other corporate events (earnings and shareholder vote for closing transaction). In his Bitcoin interview, Ryan said "Don't follow GameStop." Maybe that's what he was getting at. At any rate, the prices are more important than the exact dates, which are subject to change with additional tinfoil.

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Good luck and don't forget to thank the liquidity fairy at the top!

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Market Briefing for 2025-06-08

Market Overview

The latest news cycle is dominated by pivotal stories in technology, healthcare, and industrials, with major headlines spanning critical product launches, M&A activity, regulatory issues, and sector-defining earnings outlooks. Notable company moves—from strategic investments in AI and semiconductor advancement to major capital raises and regulatory developments—are poised to shape investor sentiment in the weeks ahead. 

Global Macro

BTC-USD and the crypto markets are experiencing both supportive institutional narratives and notable internal debates, with high-profile advocates predicting outsized long-term growth amidst development controversies around Bitcoin's core functions. However, recent crypto fund outflows and discussions about topping signals reflect growing market caution as macro pressures, including mixed U.S. economic data and rising yields, begin to weigh on risk sentiment.
BNB-USD is approaching a critical technical resistance, signaling that a confirmed breakout could catalyze new upward momentum, but any failure to breach may reinforce near-term stagnation.
CVX and the broader oil complex are facing amplified volatility, highlighted by Venezuela's sharp gasoline price hikes triggered by U.S. sanctions and suspended operations—an event underscoring the fragility of politically sensitive supply chains and their downstream market impacts.
EPD and ET—both major U.S. energy exporters—are confronting bottlenecks and pricing pressures as new export licensure requirements disrupt ethane flows to China, threatening near-term profitability and exposing vulnerability to trade policy risks. UNH faces a critical shift as the DOJ launches an investigation into Medicare billing practices, compounding leadership turnover and sparking a reevaluation of forward earnings guidance—an event that could have contagion effects across the managed care industry.

Sector Performance

• Technology: 5 - Positive
• Financials: 4 - Somewhat positive
• Healthcare: 3 - Neutral
• Industrials: 4 - Somewhat positive
• Consumer Discretionary: 3 - Neutral
• Communication Services: 4 - Somewhat positive
• Energy: 2 - Somewhat negative
• Utilities: 4 - Somewhat positive
• Real Estate: 3 - Neutral
• Materials: 3 - Neutral

Sector News

Technology

• Apple (AAPL): Investors await WWDC for pivotal AI strategy announcements amid competitive and institutional sentiment shifts; Berkshire Hathaway’s stake reduction signals added caution.
• Adobe (ADBE): FQ2 earnings previewed as a market-moving catalyst; expected 10% revenue/EPS growth seen as critical amid AI disruption and recent history of earnings-induced volatility.
• AMD (AMD): Despite Chinese export bans, anticipation around new data center GPUs and solid CPU demand fosters a cautiously optimistic outlook for accelerating growth.
• Arista Networks (ANET): Shares surged 12.25%, driven by bullish tech sentiment following a strong U.S. jobs report.
• ASML (ASML): Top ratings for Buffett-like investment metrics reinforce its position as a dominant EUV supplier poised to weather geopolitical risks.
• Broadcom (AVGO): VMware acquisition and AI infrastructure momentum sharpen competitive edge; new AI addressable market projections and perfect momentum ratings attract growth investors.
• C3.ai (AI): Stock down ~40% since IPO; new generative AI products and major client extensions are being closely watched as potential inflection points amid sector rotation.
• Cisco (CSCO): New product launch (Catalyst-2026 switch series) underpins significant medium-term revenue growth potential and additional analyst upgrades.
• CrowdStrike (CRWD): Revenue growth is decelerating, prompting negative price action and increased investor scrutiny despite positive long-term fundamentals.
• Intel (INTC): Announces Saimemory JV with SoftBank targeting AI memory, representing a strategic push into advanced memory solutions.
• Meta (META): Intensified investment in AI, including potential $10bn+ stake in Scale AI, positions company for platform transformation and sector leadership.
• Microsoft (MSFT): Momentum sustained by Azure cloud outperformance and continued OpenAI partnership investment, reinforcing leadership in commercial AI.
• Nvidia (NVDA): AI/data center leadership drives 69% revenue growth; export controls, competition, and margin compression flagged as key risks.
• Oracle (ORCL): Imminent Q4 earnings and heavy AI hardware capex represent critical tests of cloud pivot and sustained growth trajectory.
• Palantir (PLTR): Momentum slows on valuation and political controversy, despite large contract wins and AI expansion.

Financials

• Bank of America (BAC): High multi-factor model score underpins strong institutional interest.
• BlackRock (BLK): CEO Larry Fink urges urgent fiscal reforms and private investment mobilization, warning of economic risks if systemic challenges are ignored.
• Citigroup (C): Plans major China job cuts amid restructuring, weighing operational efficiency against regional growth prospects.
• Goldman Sachs (GS): Strong model scores but faces heightened competition in investment banking, especially as Wells Fargo emerges as challenger.
• JPMorgan (JPM): Flags 40% U.S. recession risk while positioning for higher yielding EM bonds, signaling a tactical shift in response to macro uncertainties.
• UBS Group (UBS): Faces a $26 billion regulatory capital hike post-Credit Suisse rescue, challenging near-term capital deployment flexibility.
• Wells Fargo (WFC): Sheds asset cap, upgrades strategic focus for growth in investment banking and credit cards.
• Blackstone (BX): Spotlight on BX from Bill Ackman as key catalyst in shareholder activism success.

Healthcare

• AbbVie (ABBV): Strong upward revision to immunology product sales guidance (>$31 bn by 2027) could boost revenue forecasts and sentiment.
• Becton Dickinson (BDX): Raised full-year revenue guidance after mixed earnings; underscores appeal to income-focused investors despite revenue miss.
• Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY): Strikes $11.1 bn licensing deal with BioNTech, strengthening oncology presence but adding risk tied to drug development.
• Cigna (CI): Faces legal challenges over claims underpayment, introducing investor uncertainty.
• UnitedHealth Group (UNH): DOJ probe and CEO resignation weigh on forward guidance; currently seen as a sector overhang.

Industrials

• Boeing (BA): Receives BofA 'Buy' upgrade to $260; optimism on order book and cash flow but faces muted sector momentum amid backlog concerns.
• Deere (DE): Upgraded to 'Buy' with $750 target, driven by agtech leadership and rising recurring revenue.
• FedEx (FDX): Faces strategic threat as Amazon scales up robotics delivery, pressuring legacy logistics margins.
• Quanta Services (PWR): Stock gains 5.49% on sector-wide jobs data boost.
• UPS (UPS): Share price recovery hinges on strategic retreat from Amazon partnership; dividend yield at record highs frames its valuation case.

Consumer Discretionary

• Airbnb (ABNB): Rallied 9.02% last week, signaling renewed confidence in travel and hospitality demand rebound.
• Best Buy (BBY): Shares surged 10.17% on optimism diverging from the sector downturn.
• Carnival (CCL): Citi ups target to $28, maintaining 'Buy' amid positive web traffic/pricing signs.
• Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH): Gained 10.82% post-Citi upgrade, reversing industry malaise.
• Royal Caribbean (RCL): Rallied 7.54% as Citi raises target; Cramer brands it 'best of breed'.
• Wynn Resorts (WYNN): Fell 8% post-acquisition announcement for Wynn Mayfair, reflecting deal skepticism.

Communication Services

• Pinterest (PINS): JPMorgan upgrades to 'Overweight' with $40 target, citing strong user and revenue trends.
• Reddit (RDDT): Under SEC investigation over AI-driven user growth disclosures; stock drops >9% following a Baird downgrade.

Energy

• Chevron (CVX): Venezuela gasoline prices spike +50% as CVX suspends operations; potential for heightened market volatility.
• Enterprise Products Partners (EPD): Ethane exports to China stalled on new U.S. licensing rules exposes key market risk.
• Energy Transfer (ET): Faces ethane shipment disruptions, underscoring sector vulnerability to policy shifts.

Utilities

• Constellation Energy (CEG): Top model ratings highlight growth prospects in electric utilities.
• GE Vernova (GEV): Perfect momentum rating signals rising investor interest.
• Dominion Energy (D): Strong dividend strategy aligns with rising appetite for stable income plays.

Cryptocurrencies

• BTC-USD: Buoyant long-term projections fueled by institutional narratives; internal governance debates and technical resistance levels present headwinds.
• BNB-USD: Facing pivotal resistance level; further upside contingent on breakout confirmation.
• XRP-USD: Chart "death cross" raises short-term caution despite hopes for a reversal.

Other Major News

• BlackRock (BLK): CEO Larry Fink's warning about U.S. fiscal trajectory and the need for urgent private investment may signal systemic financial risks.
• Bill Ackman/Blackstone (BX): Ackman's remarks highlight the growing influence of activist investing and private equity’s role in shaping public company outcomes.
• Elevance Health (ELV): Faces securities fraud lawsuit over Medicaid disclosures, aggravating recent negative stock momentum.
• California Wildfires (PCG, EIX): Investor scrutiny mounting as hedge funds target wildfire insurance subrogation claims, drawing regulatory backlash and raising stakes for utilities like PG&E and Edison International.

Connections & Insights

Insight: Multiple major U.S. energy exporters are facing simultaneous disruptions (ethane export halts, Venezuela sanctions), spotlighting how shifting U.S.-China relations and geopolitical volatility are directly pressuring North American midstream and upstream players—potentially foreshadowing increased volatility and dividend risk in the sector. Insight: Tech’s leadership is reinforced by strong AI-driven demand (Broadcom, AMD, Nvidia, Meta), yet sector rotation risk emerges as valuation and regulatory momentum builds, particularly with mega-cap institutional stake reductions and shifting legislative landscapes. Insight: Ongoing regulatory/legal investigations—from cryptocurrency governance debates to health insurer lawsuits—signal rising headline risk, with market sensitivity to compliance and policy shifts likely to intensify.

Has anyone used coinbase loan feature?

I'm asking about the newish feature in which you can receive a USDC loan backed by Bitcoin. I am assuming this means they hold your collateral, give you USDC, you sell the USDC for USD and withdraw. The USDC sale is technically a taxable event but there's no gain on that sale, so no taxes due.

Anyone try it? How did it go?