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When it comes to investing in cryptocurrencies, it's important to approach it with caution and consider various factors. Here are some steps you can consider when determining the best way to invest in cryptocurrencies:

1. Educate Yourself: Begin by learning about different cryptocurrencies, their underlying technology, and the overall market trends. Familiarize yourself with popular cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others, as well as their potential use cases and risks involved.

2. Set Investment Goals: Define your investment goals, such as long-term wealth accumulation, short-term gains, or diversification. Having clear objectives will help you make informed decisions and stay focused.

3. Determine Risk Tolerance: Cryptocurrency investments are known for their volatility. Assess your risk tolerance level, keeping in mind that higher returns often come with higher risks. Allocate your investment capital accordingly, considering a diversified portfolio to minimize risk.

4. Choose a Reliable Exchange: Select a reputable cryptocurrency exchange platform that facilitates buying, selling, and storing cryptocurrencies. Ensure the platform has strong security measures, user-friendly interface, and good customer support. Look for exchanges that are regulated and have a solid track record.

5. Conduct Thorough Research: Before investing in any specific cryptocurrency, do thorough research. Study factors like project behind the cryptocurrency, team members, market capitalization, trading volume, and community support. Also, consider any upcoming developments or partnerships that might impact the value.

6. Decide on Investment Strategy: Determine whether you want to invest in the long term or capitalize on short-term price fluctuations. Long-term investing involves buying and holding cryptocurrencies, potentially benefiting from a rise in value over time. Short-term trading involves leveraging price movements, requiring active monitoring and trading skills.

7. Secure Your Investments: Implement robust security measures to protect your cryptocurrency investments. Use hardware wallets or secure software wallets to store your digital assets. Enable two-factor authentication, regularly update your devices and software, and be cautious of phishing attempts and scams prevalent in the cryptocurrency space.

8. Stay Informed: Keep up to date with cryptocurrency news, market trends, regulatory changes, and global events that might impact the cryptocurrency market. Use reliable sources of information to make informed decisions.

Remember, investing in cryptocurrencies carries risks, and it's crucial to only invest what you can afford to lose. Consider consulting with a financial advisor or professional who specializes in cryptocurrencies to receive personalized advice tailored to your specific financial situation.

Bitcoin's Price Trajectory through Logarithmic Regression

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Bitcoin Logarithmic Chart with High/Low 3rd Order Regression Models

I would like to start off with mentioning that this analysis has been done numerous times by other people, but I have found it to consist of old data. I have decided to furthermore improve it with up to date price action.

Understanding the Chart First, it's critical to note that the chart is not your standard linear graph. It's a logarithmic scale, which means each increment on the price axis represents an exponential increase. This type of scale is particularly useful for Bitcoin, as it has seen exponential growth stages and allows us to see patterns that aren't immediately obvious on a linear scale. This chart includes third order regression curves (green/red) that best fit the highs and lows of bitcoin.

Depicting the Power-Law Growth Corridor Central to the chart is the concept of the 'power-law growth corridor,' which represents a regression analysis performed in logarithmic space. This model helps in visualizing the trend lines that Bitcoin prices have historically followed, providing a 'best fit' for both the highs and lows. The model produces a corridor which has captured the upper and lower bounds of Bitcoin's price movements for over a decade.

Diminishing Returns and Price Stability The patterns that emerge from the graph indicate a cycle of diminishing returns after each bull run, which points to a maturing market. 599x in the 2012-2014 bull run, 100x in the 2015-2018 bull run, 21x in the 2019-2022 bull run, and what regression analysis suggests to be a 9-11x from the low in this bull run (2023-2026). With each cycle, the percentage increase from the previous peak has reduced. This corresponds with the concept that as Bitcoin becomes more widely adopted, extreme fluctuations are dampened by the larger and more liquid market.

Halving Events and Market Cycles The halving events, which occur approximately every four years and cut Bitcoin mining rewards in half, are also marked on the chart. Historically, these events correlate with the middle of bull market cycles. This correlation is significant because it impacts the supply side of Bitcoin, contributing to a reduction in new coins entering the market, which, in theory, leads to upward pressure on prices.

A Stabilizing Market Examining the power-law corridor over time, we can observe a stabilizing effect on the volatility of Bitcoin's price. Despite the general perception that cryptocurrencies are prone to unpredictable swings, the regression curves show a consistent trajectory that offers a glimpse into potential future movements. Combining this regression model and our understanding of the correlation between the halving events and historical bull runs, this analysis can suggest a $150-175k bitcoin top with the bull run possibly coming to an end in Q4 2025. This is not financial advice.

Conclusion The graph offers not a certainty, but a grounded estimate of Bitcoin's trajectory. While unexpected events can always cause deviations, the power-law growth corridor suggests a somewhat predictable pattern of growth, with volatility slowly reducing.

I'm interested by your perspectives and interpretations of this analysis—let's discuss where we see Bitcoin going next.

Blockchain.com Invalid QR

I'm at an event where I'm setting up participants with blockchain.com wallets. When I try to scan the QR code for their bitcoin public address, my wallet returns that it's an "invalid QR code". Note I am scanning this with my own blockchain.com wallet. How is this possible? It's happened three times in an hour on three totally unique devices.

Homage to BTC Halving

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https://preview.redd.it/ae23r9hsy40c1.png?width=1814&format=png&auto=webp&s=57885a505d4ed957a251d3e192daf8c60e8c49fb

As the CKB halving is steadily approaching, we wanted to pay our respect to Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator/s of Bitcoin, the originator who heavily influenced the designs of all subsequent cryptocurrencies, including CKB.

The "halving" is a key monetary policy feature of Bitcoin, which for very good reasons, has subsequently been used in many other cryptocurrencies. The term "halving" refers to a scheduled reduction in the rate at which new cryptocurrency units are generated.

https://preview.redd.it/v0tuks4wy40c1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=039244c0966b31e0c01cc3cdadd312690a060cd5

In the case of Bitcoin, the halving event occurs approximately every four years, or precisely- every 210,000 blocks. When Bitcoin was first created in 2009, the reward for mining a block (i.e., adding transactions to the blockchain) was 50 bitcoins.

https://preview.redd.it/ouz8y3wzy40c1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ed28634b3f3422a0ff26c4fbc775469494e221b

After the first halving in 2012, this reward was cut to 25 bitcoins, then to 12.5 after the second halving in 2016, and then to 6.25 after the third halving in 2020.

https://preview.redd.it/nfm0oi22z40c1.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=27cc5165e30f7c7150ee0d2b406f44f021f035b0

The halving mechanism is one of the ways Bitcoin mimics gold and other scarce resources: over time, it becomes progressively harder (and thus more costly) to mine new bitcoins, which in turn makes the existing bitcoins more valuable.

https://preview.redd.it/9znycjf6z40c1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=c4228d82800495874a4e7a222f09b00ca714813f

That being said, Satoshi could have made Bitcoin a scarce asset only by capping its total supply without ever introducing the halving mechanism. So why did he do it? Well, let's look at what the legend themself had to say:

https://preview.redd.it/8l6hctl9z40c1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=1b9924cfff35007a2a0394f953dd357e56d27c6a

Before we dig in, let's look at another quote:

https://preview.redd.it/4qmv9wpbz40c1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=dfd27644aa4dd37d438c250c44d61f9ba1f3d4dd

Scheduling halvings every four years was Satoshi's way of balancing the supply of bitcoins with the demand. If the full supply of 21 million bitcoins was made available upon launch, supply would’ve far exceeded demand, and its value would’ve had very little chance of rising. Moreover, without the steady addition of a constant amount of new coins, there wouldn't be a way to *fairly* distribute the coins into circulation or a way to incentivize miners to support the network during its early stages. The reason why Bitcoin's supply starts high and decreases over time (halves every 4 years) is that the network needs to *heavily* incentivize miners to provide security during its bootstrapping phase, which can't be done with transaction fees alone.

https://preview.redd.it/ve4gr7ciz40c1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=4cbf89fa9a475bb9fff962f5111e36e5825feddb

Instead, the halving creates a flywheel effect by distributing as many coins to as many people as possible early on and then decreasing the inflation rate over time, creating an attractive-to-hold, hard or sound money asset with the likeness of gold.

https://preview.redd.it/a4fk3tymz40c1.png?width=741&format=png&auto=webp&s=7310fe256691082f0b72b67bd18183fad7262dad

The halving mechanism also gives the network time to mature and eventually transition to a fee-based incentive structure. Whether transaction fees will eventually provide ample compensation for miners to guarantee sufficient security for Bitcoin remains a hotly debated issue. ↓

https://preview.redd.it/3shilmdpz40c1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=d25baa528c1ff81fe4993394bbf33891edb961af

This is why CKB iterates on Bitcoin's original monetary design, ensuring miners will always have a predictable source of income from block rewards, while also ensuring CKB acts as a hard asset with a capped supply for its long-term holders.

Does anyone else think that BlockFi paying out at the $15k Bottom is just a little to Coincidental?

I had a heart surgery in 2021 and decided to place an inconsequential amount of Bitcoin and Ethereum with BlockFi in the event that if something happened to me, the amount would continue to earn interest for my, at the time, 3 year old son as he grew up.

To be sure, trying to get an extra 6% on an asset that is likely to go up tens of thousands of percent over the course of 20 years while putting the entire amount in the hands of a centralized entity is clearly based on hope on top of hope, but now that the bankruptcy appears to be in its tail end I am questioning how this group of professional investors with insider information, at least in regards to where the market was at in November of 2022, managed to sell everyone's Bitcoin at the absolute bottom of $15,348.00.

This may have been fine if they paid us out when Bitcoin was at that price, but by the time we receive the dollar amount, the price of Bitcoin will have tripled or more. Maybe I'm just being cynical, but does anyone else think something is a little suspicious about this?

I am reminded of the Mt.Gox bankruptcy where the 200,000 Bitcoins they had left they sold at $30k years later, but only had to pay out $550 for each Bitcoin to the owners of the 750,000 they lost. Profiting in the Billions from stalling and making it take longer to complete. Does anyone else think something similar is happening here?