Friday, March 3, 2023

If everyone believes in halving, then halving will not make you rich

To readers in 2025 and beyond: at the time of this post, 1 year before the March 2024 halving, investors generally believed that the 2024 halving event would cause the price of Bitcoin to go parabolic.

If all investors believed in the power of the halving, they would have already invested all of their money before the event. This means there would be little new demand for Bitcoin from existing investors after the halving. The pace of new investors joining will be the major factor tipping the balance between supply and demand. The change in mining output, however, would have less of an impact on the price.

Let me ask: Will new investors be more likely to invest before or after the halving? I would say there is no reason for new investors to prefer joining after the halving and it is a minor factor. New investors decision is based on the amount of money they have, inflationary stress and most importantly, the past performance of Bitcoin. If this year's Bitcoin performance is down, by March 2024, the "past performance" (i.e. today's performance) will not look good, so there is even less reason to buy the dips today.

The winner could be those who actually bought the dip after the halving in March 2024, as demand slowly creeps back. At that time (exactly 1 year later), few will chant "buy the dip".


Reflecting on the 2013 Bitcoin Bull Market: What We Can Learn from its Rise and Fall

Don't take my post as financial advice, just as a reflection

The first bitcoin bull market began in 2013 and lasted several months, leading to a sharp rise in the value of bitcoin. At the beginning of the bull market, the price per bitcoin was around $13, but by the end of the bull market it had peaked at $1,000. This meant a rise of more than 7,500% in just a few months, making it one of the most significant financial events of the decade.

The first bitcoin bull market was driven by several factors. One of the most significant was the increased awareness and acceptance of bitcoin as a digital currency. As more people began to use bitcoin, its value rose, leading to a positive feedback loop that resulted in more people becoming interested in buying it.

Another factor was the growing interest of institutional investors in bitcoin. Hedge funds and other investment firms have begun to invest in bitcoin, leading to an increase in demand and value. In addition, several high-profile events, such as the banking crisis in Cyprus, contributed to bitcoin's rise in value as people looked for alternative stores of value.

The first bitcoin bull market also saw the emergence of new exchanges and trading platforms that made it easier for people to buy and sell bitcoin. This helped increase the liquidity of the market and made it more accessible to a wide range of people.

Now history is repeating itself. Bitcoin is down a lot, but it will rise above its previous peak and break new records.


U.S. crypto taxes in 2023: What you need to know

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The end of the tax year is fast approaching, and the clock is ticking for crypto holders to report their transactions to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).

In a bid to clamp down on crypto tax evasion, the IRS modified its terminology this year from “virtual currency” to “digital assets.” The new change encompasses all actions involving convertible cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and non-fungible tokens.

April 18, 2023 is the deadline for declaring your 2022 crypto activity as part of your 2022 U.S. federal income tax return. The 2022 tax year includes any activity between January 1, 2022 and December 31, 2022.

Late filings, failure to pay taxes owed, and crypto tax evasion all carry penalties ranging from fines to jail sentences. We’ll cover these below.

2022 Tax brackets

2022 U.S. federal income tax brackets*1

https://preview.redd.it/kvp5szh9alla1.png?width=1085&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=eb58688a096cebbca09ad552def7ea831f133bd4

*Source: Internal Revenue Service

1 The tax brackets for U.S. federal income tax apply to short-term capital gains

2022 Long-term capital gains rates*

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*Source: Internal Revenue Service

How is cryptocurrency taxed in the United States?

For tax purposes, the IRS treats digital assets as property, not currency.

Generally speaking, this means most crypto-related activities will be subject to capital gains tax. However, there are some instances where the IRS views cryptocurrency gains from specific actions as ordinary income.

Here, the IRS makes the distinction between profits made when disposing of or selling cryptocurrencies and profits earned from other activities (for example, staking or airdrops).

There are no minimum thresholds involved with crypto tax reporting. Transacting any amount, even as little as $100 worth of crypto, still needs to be reported to the IRS.

Before we dive into taxable crypto events, let’s look at what crypto-related activities you can do tax-free.

Tax-free crypto actions

The following actions are not taxable events according to the latest guidance provided by the IRS:

  • Purchasing cryptocurrency (including NFTs) using fiat currency
  • Transferring digital assets (including NFTs) from one of your crypto wallets to another crypto wallet you own
  • Minting NFTs
  • Gifting cryptocurrency (subject to the per person gift limit: $16,000 for 2022 filing and $17,000 for 2023 filing).
  • Depositing cryptocurrency as collateral for DeFi loans
  • Donating cryptocurrency to charitable causes (subject to qualification noted below)
  • Locking up digital assets in a staking smart contract (this does not include any rewards earned through staking)

It’s important to stress here that buying cryptocurrency using another cryptocurrency is a taxable event. The IRS considers this action a disposal, which we’ll explore below.

Additionally, charitable crypto donations can be tax deductible. However, a new IRS memorandum mandates anyone claiming a tax deduction above $5,000 must obtain a qualified appraisal first.

Capital-gains taxable actions

The following actions are taxable events according to the latest guidance provided by the IRS:

  • Trading any digital asset for another (this includes stablecoins and NFTs)
  • Selling digital assets for fiat currency (including metaverse items or property)
  • Selling or using digital assets to pay for goods or services

Under this tax treatment, you only owe taxes if you’ve sold or otherwise disposed of a digital asset for a profit. The amount you owe is based on the difference between the price you paid for the asset (known as the “cost basis”) and the price for which it sold.

There are two different capital gains tax rates for digital assets:

  • Short-term capital gains
  • Long-term capital gains

Which one you pay depends on how long you’ve held each investment.

Gains on the disposal of any digital asset investment held for one year or less are subject to short-term capital gains tax. Gains on the disposal of those held for over one year are subject to long-term capital gains tax.

The IRS taxes short-term capital gains at the same rate as your income tax bracket. See the tax bracket charts above for the latest figures.

The IRS taxes long-term capital gains at a lower rate, encouraging crypto investors to HODL assets.

You will usually “net” gains and losses; i.e. you would apply a long-term capital loss to a long-term capital gain, and a short-term capital loss to a short-term capital gain. If there are excess losses in one category, you can net these against gains of either type.

Income tax actions

The following actions are also taxable events according to the latest guidance provided by the IRS:

Any profits made from any of the above actions are considered ordinary income and taxed the same as short-term capital gains. See the short-term capital gains table above for the latest federal income tax brackets.

Staking with Kraken

The IRS has not yet issued clear guidance on how (character) and when (timing) staking rewards should be taxed. However, some practitioners view rewards as ordinary income and say that they are currently taxable.

Other practitioners may disagree with this position. Please consult your tax advisor for further guidance.

U.S. customers that received over $600 in staking rewards in 2022 will receive IRS Form 1099-MISC from Kraken and a copy of this form. Kraken will also send this form to the IRS. This form helps in calculating the amount includible on your U.S. tax return.

You can learn more about IRS Form 1099-MISC here and the Kraken Tax Forms FAQ here.

IRS Form 1099-B and 1099-DA Reporting

A Form 1099-B reports proceeds from sale of stocks and other financial instruments. Form 1099-B may also report other details of the sale such as basis and more. U.S. taxpayers use this form to calculate their gains or losses from selling such instruments. Kraken does not currently issue Forms 1099-B.  

The Infrastructure and Investment Jobs Act, signed on November 15, 2021, requires cryptocurrency “brokers,” like Kraken, to report customer activity to the IRS using a new Form 1099-DA.

The IRS, via announcement 2023-2, deferred the requirement to report digital asset transactions on Form 1099-DA for the 2023 tax year. Therefore, Kraken does not currently file Forms 1099-DA with the IRS, nor do we issue Forms 1099-DA to customers. Instead, we provide you with the ability to download your account history, as described below. Forthcoming U.S. tax regulations will require reporting of cryptocurrency sales or transfers in future years. We anticipate these new regulations soon.

Please check the Taxes section of our Support Center going forward for updates.

How to calculate and file your crypto taxes

Calculate your cost basis

For investors that only complete a handful of digital asset activities per year, calculating taxes is a relatively straight-forward process. But, for people who are highly active in the crypto space and engage with multiple platforms and assets, it can be significantly harder.

Thankfully, the IRS accepts several methods for calculating the cost basis of investments subject to capital gains tax. It’s important to note that the amount you’ll pay in taxes can vary depending on which option you choose.

  • First in first out (FIFO): Digital assets bought first are the first assets sold
  • Highest in first out (HIFO): Your most expensive digital assets are sold first
  • Last in first out (LIFO): The assets you bought last are the first assets sold
  • Specific identification (Spec ID): You calculate the specific cost basis for each transaction

Kraken provides you with the ability to download your account history for all of your trades and other account history on your Kraken account. Third-party providers can help you when calculating your crypto taxes utilizing the CSV file downloaded from Kraken. You may also provide the below forms when filing your crypto taxes. We are currently working on enhancements to our tax reporting capabilities.

We also want to note that you should be including fees as adjustments to your cost basis and gross proceeds. This adjustment will impact your gain/loss calculations.

If there was an acquisition fee when you purchased cryptocurrency, you can add that fee to your purchase price to increase your cost basis. Similarly, when you sell cryptocurrency, you can deduct the selling fees from your proceeds. This deduction is beneficial because it results in lower gains or higher losses.

Filing your crypto taxes

Once you’ve calculated how much tax you owe, you’ll need to complete the following forms.

For capital gains tax, you’ll need to complete Form 8949. If you’ve reported losses, you may be able to deduct the amount from your capital gains tax liability. To do this, you will need to complete Form 1040, Schedule D.

For crypto-based income taxes, most people will be required to complete Form 1040, Schedule 1 or Schedule C.

However, depending on your status, you may be required to complete a different type of 1040 form.

  • Form 1040–ss: Applicable to residents in Guam, American Samoa, the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI), the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), and Puerto Rico
  • Form 1040-nr: Applicable to people considered “nonresident aliens”

Penalties

Crypto tax evasion can lead to severe penalties. The IRS can issue fines up to 75% of unreported crypto gains (a maximum of $100,000 for individuals and $500,000 for corporations) and a tax year audit may remain open indefinitely.

Additionally, criminal convictions can result in a five-year jail sentence.

If you’re unsure how to calculate or file your tax returns, it’s advisable to seek guidance from a tax professional.

Keep learning about crypto

Now that you understand how your digital asset investments are taxed, why not continue your crypto journey by checking out our Learn Center.

Learn more

These materials are for general information purposes only and are not investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, stake, or hold any digital asset or to engage in any specific trading strategy. Some crypto products and markets are unregulated, and you may not be protected by government compensation and/or regulatory protection schemes. The unpredictable nature of the cryptoasset markets can lead to loss of funds. Tax may be payable on any return and/or on any increase in the value of your crypto assets and you should seek independent advice on your taxation position.


Was this time actually different? If we look from each Halving until the next halving the price structure is actually very similar…

One way that is often used to basically describe time through crucial events, are the Bitcoin Halvings. Events where the block reward of BTC gets reduced by 50% thus the inflation of Bitcoin also falls, this time inflation will even fall below the 1% mark. Often we say that in a bear market we are just waiting for the next Halving as that could most likely bring in a new rally.

Especially this time there has been calls that “it is very different“ than during previous times as we had recessions and other macro events happening for the first time in Cryptos but if we solely look at the price structure there has been some big similarities to previous Halving cycles.

Chart from Blockware Solutions

Here we can see how the price has played out since each Halving until the next one. Here we can see that just everytime we had a massive bull run happening a few months after the halving, then slowly after about 500 days we had the bull run exhausting and a bear market setting in.

Interestingly each time the bear market bottom has been getting later and later in the timeline, in 2018 it was later than in 2015 and now in 2022 it is later than in 2018 too as we made fresh lows at $15k after it. On the other hand the return to a rally after the bottom has been coming quicker. In 2018 it was before 2015 and now in 2023 it was quicker than in 2018 at the timeline.

What do you think, do the similarities have something to do with a never-ending cycle of greed and depression?


Koii Labs, Idexos launch middleware bridge aiming to replace CEXs

Attacks on bridge technology in 2022 led to the theft of $2.5 billion from decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, according to a report by Token Terminal. While this could have been a setback for many projects — and, thus, the crypto space — it seems to be fueling infrastructure and security developments.

At the 2023 ETHDenver conference, Web3 protocol Koii Labs and software company Idexo announced a new middleware bridge to advance deployments on-chain with “just a few lines of code,” Cointelegraph exclusively learned from the teams. The solution aims not only to improve security and speed up deployments but also to create a path to replace centralized crypto exchanges with DeFi bridges.

Through bridges, two or more blockchains can share data, such as smart contracts or tokens. Bridges connect different architecture and database networks, but security has been a continuing challenge for projects.

“The core risk associated with bridges is that they require signing wallets to put through transactions on the destination chain. If those wallets were compromised, then they could make arbitrary transactions that don’t correspond to an event on the originating blockchain,” explained Idexo CEO Greg Marlin regarding 2022’s security incidents targeting bridges.

The new middleware bridge, however, forces randomization of the signers (decentralized nodes), with ​​a large number of signers available compared with a threshold number of signers for a destination transaction. The bridge’s staking and reward mechanism ensures that the size of transactions is limited by the stake of the eligible participating nodes, claimed Marlin, adding:

Also Read : Conflicting Signals: The Big Difference Between Bitcoin And Crypto Charts | TheSpuzz

“The big difference […] is the security offered by the high number of nodes, combined by the random ordering mechanism, choosing at random 10 sequential nodes from potentially thousands of nodes.”

Related: Uniswap DAO debate shows devs still struggle to secure cross-chain bridges

Another pain the bridge seeks to address is liquidity across pools and the DeFi ecosystem. “DeFi has operated in silos,” noted Koii Labs CEO Al Morris. According to him, the growth of layer-1 and layer-2 protocols has fragmented liquidity across many chains:

“One of the main reasons that centralized crypto exchanges came to exist is because you need to get from fiat to crypto, and from chain to chain. Cross-chain transfers are a necessity, […] but until now, it has been difficult to accomplish in a decentralized manner.”

Through the bridge, self-custodied tokenholders can choose an origin and destination chain, as well as the amount to be sent across chains, said the companies. Their goal is to provide a decentralized alternative to centralized exchanges and developers seeking to deploy new bridges for native utility tokens.

Technologies planned to be incorporated in the bridge over time include zero-knowledge proofs and a cross-chain messaging protocol, enabling smart contracts on different chains to be synced with one another. The bridge will support a range of Ethereum Virtual Machine-based chains, including Arbitrum, Avalanche, Dogechain, Ethereum, Fantom, OKC and Polygon, among others. Non-EVM chains, such as Solana and Polkadot, will be included in later updates.

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