Thursday, April 17, 2025

🚨 Ethereum Sees 77K ETH Moved to Derivatives – Market Prepping for Another Drop?

Ethereum has recently experienced a slight rebound, yet its overall performance for 2025 is not looking promising. Having lost over 50% of its value this year, the altcoin seems to be gearing up for another decline.

Current on-chain data suggests that ETH prices are at risk. Notably, derivative exchange inflows spiked by over 77,000 ETH, marking the largest single-day inflow in months. This follows previous inflow events that coincided with price drops, indicating a possible shift towards increased hedging or short-selling as major players send ETH to derivative platforms.

This inflow surge aligns with growing global economic tensions, particularly escalating trade disputes between the US and China. China's new tariffs on US goods have sparked anxiety in risk markets worldwide, leading investors to retreat to safer assets, which adds to the bearish sentiment surrounding digital currencies.

Currently, ETH is trading near multi-month lows around $1,500 and could face even more pressure if these inflows continue. Historical patterns suggest these inflow spikes could indicate that institutional investors are preparing for further downside moves.

Moreover, Ethereum whales have recently offloaded about 143,000 ETH, a trend which may suggest an overall bearish outlook that could intensify selling pressures in the days ahead.

Despite ongoing pressures, there's a glimmer of hope. Cryptocurrency transaction fees on the Ethereum network have dropped to a five-year low, averaging just $0.168. Historically, such low fees can precede price rebounds, which may present a lower-risk entry point for buyers in an otherwise uncertain market.

In conclusion, while the current market signals suggest potential downturns for Ethereum, the unusually low transaction fees might signal an opportunity for a rebound. Keep an eye on how these developments unfold in the coming days.

memecoin #crypto #solana #Ethereum #ai #bitcoin #cryptocurrency

⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.


The Daily Market Flux - Your Complete Market Rundown (04/17/2025)

MarketFlux.io is a real-time financial news and analytics aggregator that gathers textual news from over 350 sources, providing instant insights and advanced filtering capabilities. With AI-powered sentiment analysis, historical search, and customizable filters, MarketFlux.io enables traders and investors to efficiently track market-moving events as they unfold. Visit Marketflux.io

Top Stories🎯

ECB Set for Rate Cut as Global Trade Tensions Escalate

The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates for the seventh time in a year to bolster the economy against Trump's tariffs. This move aims to lower euro zone inflation and counteract global trade fallout, while the Fed maintains a hawkish stance.

Trump Escalates Attack on Fed Chair Powell, Demands Lower Rates

President Trump harshly criticizes Fed Chair Jerome Powell, calling for his termination and lower interest rates. Trump claims Powell is "always too late and wrong" and that the Fed should have cut rates long ago, comparing it to the ECB's actions.

Netflix Beats Q1 Forecasts, Raises Revenue Outlook for 2025

Netflix surpasses Q1 earnings expectations with $10.54B revenue and $6.61 EPS. The company forecasts Q2 revenue of $11.04B, above estimates. Netflix's 2025 guidance remains unchanged, with revenue tracking above the midpoint of projections.

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Company News

Unitedhealth Group Incorporated (UNH)

Performance Overview

1D Change: 📉 -22.38%

5D Change: 📉 -23.6%

News Volume: 📰 270

Unusual Volume Factor: 🚀 14x

UnitedHealth Shock Rocks Markets: Dow Plunges as Insurer Slashes Outlook on Soaring Medical Costs

UnitedHealth Group, one of the largest health insurers in the United States, shocked investors on April 17, 2025, with a disappointing first-quarter earnings report and a significant cut to its full-year profit outlook. The company's stock plummeted by over 20% in its worst single-day performance since 1998, dragging down the Dow Jones Industrial Average and creating a rare divergence between the Dow and other major indices.

Full coverage of $UNH on MarketFlux.io

Eli Lilly And Company (LLY)

Performance Overview

1D Change: 📈 14.3%

5D Change: 📈 16.51%

Eli Lilly's Oral Weight-Loss Drug Matches Ozempic's Efficacy, Stock Skyrockets

Eli Lilly and Company has made a significant breakthrough in the field of diabetes and weight loss treatment with its experimental oral drug, orforglipron. The company announced successful Phase 3 trial results for this once-daily pill, which is the first small molecule GLP-1 to complete such a trial.

Full coverage of $LLY on MarketFlux.io

Other News

Fixed Income And Interest Rates Events

Trump Escalates Feud with Fed Chair Powell, Demands Termination Over Interest Rate Policy

President Trump has launched a scathing attack on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, criticizing his leadership and calling for his termination. Trump claims Powell is "always too late and wrong" in his decision-making, particularly regarding interest rates. The President argues that the Fed should have lowered interest rates long ago, comparing the situation to the European Central Bank's expected rate cuts. Trump's frustration stems from his belief that Powell's actions are hindering economic growth. This latest outburst reignites the ongoing tension between the White House and the Federal Reserve, raising concerns about the central bank's independence. The President's comments have the potential to impact financial markets and fuel debates about monetary policy in the United States.

European Regulators Cast Doubt on U.S. Treasuries' Safe-Haven Status

European financial regulators are challenging the traditional view of U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven investment, sparking debate in global financial markets.

ECB Slashes Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points Across All Facilities

The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut interest rates across the board by 25 basis points. The deposit facility rate is now 2.25%, the main refinancing rate is 2.25%, and the marginal lending facility rate is 2.40%, all in line with market expectations.

Egypt Slashes Interest Rates by 2.25%, Marking First Cut Since 2020 Amid Economic Challenges

Egypt's central bank has made a significant move, cutting interest rates by 225 basis points for the first time since 2020. This decision comes as inflation rates have fallen and global trade uncertainties loom. The overnight deposit rate is now set at 25%, while the lending rate is at 26%. This rate cut aims to stimulate investment and ease Egypt's high debt-servicing costs, potentially boosting economic recovery.

Treasury Secretary Yellen Warns Against Firing Fed Chair Powell, Citing Market Stability Concerns

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has reportedly warned White House officials against attempts to dismiss Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The cautionary advice comes amid concerns that such a move could destabilize financial markets and undermine economic confidence. Yellen's stance highlights the delicate balance between political decisions and market stability.

Turkey Surprises Markets with Aggressive Rate Hike to 46% Amid Political Unrest

Turkey's central bank unexpectedly hiked its main interest rate by 350 basis points to 46%, surpassing market expectations of 42.50%. This aggressive move aims to combat inflation, stabilize the lira, and restore investor confidence amid recent political turmoil and market volatility. The decision follows the arrest of Istanbul's mayor and reflects the bank's commitment to monetary tightening.

Ukraine Holds Interest Rate Steady, Lowers Growth Outlook Amid War and Trade Concerns

Ukraine's central bank maintained its key interest rate at 15.5%, anticipating a decline in inflation this summer. However, it downgraded its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 3.1% due to ongoing war challenges and global trade tensions. The bank aims to balance inflation control with economic recovery amid uncertain conditions.

Treasury Yields Surge as Economic Signals Turn Bearish

Treasury yields rise sharply, with the 10-year yield increasing significantly. The yield curve steepens to a 3-year high, signaling potential economic challenges. Fed chief's tariff warning and options activity in bond ETFs add to market dynamics.

Treasury Yields Fall Amid Strong Labor Market, Impacting Rate Cut Expectations

Treasury yields dipped as the US labor market showed strength, causing traders to reassess Fed rate cut expectations. Bond volatility reached lows, while Indian government bond yields also decreased slightly.

Geopolitics Events

Trump "Very Confident" on Imminent US-EU Trade Deal

President Trump expresses strong confidence in reaching a trade agreement with the European Union in the near future, signaling potential progress in US-EU economic relations.

Supreme Court to Hear Arguments on Trump's Birthright Citizenship Order

The Supreme Court will hear arguments on Trump's executive order aiming to restrict automatic birthright citizenship, potentially altering a long-standing constitutional right. This rare May hearing could determine the scope of previous rulings and the administration's ability to implement the policy in other areas.

Meloni Meets Trump: Italy Seeks EU-US Trade Deal

Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visits the White House to discuss EU-US trade relations and seek a tariff agreement amid tensions.

Trump Touts Diplomatic Momentum: Productive Talks with Mexico and Japan, More to Come

President Trump reports productive discussions with Mexico's President and Japanese trade representatives. He claims high global interest in meetings, including from China, and mentions upcoming talks with Italy. This flurry of diplomatic activity suggests active engagement in international trade and relations.

Trump Reveals US-Ukraine Minerals Deal, Signing Set for Next Week

President Trump announced a minerals deal between the US and Ukraine, set to be signed next Thursday. This agreement is expected to maintain positive relations with Kyiv as the White House aims to negotiate a swift ceasefire with Russia.

US Alleges Chinese Aid to Houthis in Targeting American Ships

The US has accused a Chinese company of assisting Yemen's Houthi rebels in targeting American warships, according to a Financial Times report.

Trump: China Initiates Dialogue Amid Trade Tensions, Deal Expected

President Trump confirms ongoing talks with China, stating that Xi has reached out multiple times since recent tariff increases. Trump reiterates his commitment to securing a deal with China.

Xi Jinping Promotes 'Asian Family' Unity, Strengthens Ties in Southeast Asia Tour

Chinese President Xi Jinping's Southeast Asian tour emphasized regional unity and an "Asian family" concept. During his visit to Malaysia, both nations signed 31 agreements, pledging to strengthen ties, enhance strategic coordination, and maintain stability in the South China Sea. China also expressed willingness to deepen political trust with Cambodia.

Trump Administration Intensifies Battle with Harvard, Threatening Foreign Student Enrollment and Tax Status

The Trump administration is escalating its conflict with Harvard University, threatening to bar foreign student enrollment and revoke its tax-exempt status. This move comes after Harvard pushed back against a deal tied to federal funding. The administration's actions have sparked a House panel probe and raised concerns about international students potentially seeking education elsewhere.

US Jobless Claims Fall Unexpectedly, Signaling Strong Labor Market

US jobless claims dropped to 215,000 in the April 12 week, lower than expected. Continuing claims rose to 1,885,000. The decrease in initial claims suggests a resilient labor market despite economic concerns.

Hamas Offers Hostage Release for War's End and Gaza Withdrawal, Proposes Prisoner Swap

Hamas' Gaza chief proposes a deal to release Israeli hostages in exchange for ending the war, Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and allowing reconstruction. Hamas is ready to negotiate swapping all hostages for Palestinian prisoners. This offer comes as Hamas seeks to leverage the hostage situation for broader concessions in the ongoing conflict.

Rubio Unveils U.S. Peace Framework for Ukraine in Talks with Russian Foreign Minister

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio engaged in crucial talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, presenting a new U.S. peace framework for the Ukraine conflict. The proposal, which received positive reception in Paris discussions with U.S. and French officials, aims to establish a durable and lasting peace. Rubio emphasized that peace is achievable if all parties commit to reaching an agreement. The State Department reported that the talks were constructive and showed clear motivation to end the Russia-Ukraine war.

SpaceX Leads Race to Build Trump's "Golden Dome" Missile Shield

SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, is the leading contender to develop a key component of Trump's "Golden Dome" missile defense shield. The company is proposing a subscription model for the U.S. government, according to sources familiar with the process.

Trump Weighs Nippon Deal in Japan Talks, Prioritizes U.S. Steel Ownership

Trump suggests Nippon deal might factor into Japan tariff talks, but doubts it. He emphasizes keeping U.S. Steel in American hands, highlighting his stance on domestic steel production.

Trump Flexes Negotiation Muscle: "We'll Set the Deal" if Countries Won't Cooperate

President Trump asserts a strong negotiating stance, claiming countries are eager to make deals with the US. He emphasizes America's willingness to listen but warns that if nations refuse to negotiate, the US will set terms unilaterally, showcasing a bold approach to international trade.

Trump Extends Federal Hiring Freeze, Tightening Government Workforce Until 2025

President Trump is set to sign an executive order extending the federal hiring freeze until July 15, 2025. This decision prolongs workforce constraints across government agencies, impacting their ability to fill positions and manage operations.

China Welcomes Nvidia and US Firms to Invest, Says Vice Premier

Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang in Beijing, welcoming US companies to invest in China's market and deepen mutually beneficial cooperation.

US Pulls Hundreds of Troops from Syria in Major Military Move

The United States is withdrawing hundreds of troops from Syria, signaling a significant shift in military presence in the region.

Italy Commits to NATO's 2% Defence Spending Goal for 2024

Italy's economy minister announced the country will meet NATO's 2% GDP defence spending target this year, a significant increase from previous levels. This move aligns Italy with alliance expectations and demonstrates a renewed commitment to military readiness.

U.S.-Congo Minerals Deal to Include Private Sector, State Department Confirms

The U.S. State Department revealed that an upcoming minerals deal with the Democratic Republic of Congo will involve private sector partners alongside government collaboration. More details are expected to be announced soon as the process moves forward.

Trump Downplays Concerns, Claims Friendship with Nvidia CEO Huang

Trump expresses friendship with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, stating he's not concerned about him or the company.

Zelenskiy to Reveal Evidence of Chinese Weapons Support for Russia

President Zelenskiy claims Ukraine has evidence of China supplying Russia with artillery and gunpowder, and assisting with weapons production on Russian soil. He plans to present this evidence next week.

Macro Events

BoJ and BoK Governors Outline Cautious Monetary Strategies Amid Inflation Concerns

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda and Bank of Korea Governor Rhee have provided insights into their respective monetary policies. Ueda emphasized the need for time before rate adjustments impact prices and stated that the BoJ won't decrease rate hike pace due to financial concerns. He stressed the importance of managing policy with financial stability in mind and warned that maintaining low rates during accelerating inflation could force rapid hikes. Ueda also highlighted the gradual approach towards the 2% inflation target. Meanwhile, Rhee defended the Bank of Korea's neutral monetary policy stance and suggested the Korean won is undervalued. Both central banks are closely monitoring economic indicators, inflation expectations, and financial conditions to guide their future policy decisions.

Fed's Williams: Economy Strong, No Rate Changes Needed Despite Tariff Concerns

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams has shared his views on the current state of the U.S. economy and monetary policy. Despite ongoing uncertainties, Williams believes the economy is in a good place and that monetary policy is well-positioned. He doesn't foresee a need to change interest rates in the near future. However, Williams acknowledges that tariffs will likely drive up inflation and slow growth this year. He projects GDP growth to be under 1% and unemployment to rise to 4.5-5%. Williams emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation expectations and keeping them anchored. He estimates the neutral interest rate remains low, with the longer-run federal funds rate likely around 3%. While market pricing reflects uncertainty about the economic outlook, Williams maintains that his fundamental views on monetary policy haven't changed significantly.

IMF Cuts Growth Forecasts Amid Trade Tensions, But Recession Not on the Horizon

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warns of lowered global growth forecasts due to escalating trade tensions and U.S.-driven tariff shocks. While a recession isn't expected, the IMF's updated outlook will include notable markdowns and increased inflation forecasts for some countries. Georgieva emphasizes that protectionism erodes productivity and impacts growth upfront, with rising uncertainty posing risks to financial market stability. Despite these challenges, she maintains that economic fundamentals remain strong and advises monetary policy to stay agile and credible.

Chicago Fed's Anna Paulson to Lead Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank

Anna Paulson, current research director at Chicago Fed, appointed as Philadelphia Fed's new president, effective July 1, 2025. This move marks a significant leadership change in the Federal Reserve System.

ECB Rate Cut Expectations Surge: Markets Eye 1.57% Deposit Rate by December

Markets are ramping up bets on ECB rate cuts, now pricing in a deposit rate of 1.57% for December, down from 1.71% before the ECB statement. Traders anticipate three more cuts this year, reflecting increased expectations for monetary easing.

Turkey Surprises Markets with Aggressive Rate Hike to 46% Amid Political Unrest

Turkey's central bank unexpectedly hiked its main interest rate by 350 basis points to 46%, surpassing market expectations of 42.50%. This aggressive move aims to combat inflation, stabilize the lira, and restore investor confidence amid recent political turmoil and market volatility. The decision follows the arrest of Istanbul's mayor and reflects the bank's commitment to monetary tightening.

Fed's Williams Forecasts Slow Growth, Emphasizes Inflation Vigilance Amid Economic Uncertainty

Fed's Williams offers a cautious economic outlook, projecting GDP growth under 1% and unemployment rising to 4.5%-5% this year. He emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation expectations and keeping them anchored. Williams notes that recent inflation data has been positive but remains above target. He acknowledges the impact of tariffs on inflation and growth, highlighting the uncertainty in the economic landscape. While refraining from predicting recessions or specific Fed actions, Williams maintains that his fundamental views on monetary policy haven't changed, with a longer-run federal funds rate likely around 3%.

Apple CEO's Secret Talks on iPhone Prices Amid Trump's China Tariffs

Apple CEO privately discussed potential iPhone price increases with Trump officials due to China tariffs, according to Washington Post report. The talks highlight tech industry concerns over trade tensions.

BoJ's Nakagawa: Market Uncertainty Persists, Policy Decisions Await Tariff Talks

Bank of Japan's Nakagawa acknowledges financial market uncertainty ahead of the next policy meeting. He emphasizes the need to assess various factors, including tariff negotiation progress, before making decisions. The BoJ is carefully monitoring the situation with two weeks remaining.

Fitch Warns of US Credit Decline as Trade War Threatens Long-Term Economic Stability

Fitch Ratings warns of deteriorating US credit trends due to tariffs and policy volatility. Despite temporary market stabilization, Trump's trade war could have lasting impacts. Breakingviews columnists analyze potential long-term effects on US Treasuries and the dollar, highlighting concerns about bond market volatility and gold's performance.

ECB Unanimous on Rate Decision, Rejects 50bps Cut

ECB President Lagarde reports unanimous decision on interest rates. Various options discussed, but no support for a 50 basis point cut. Consensus reached among policymakers.

Crypto Events

Bitcoin Consolidates Near $84K Amid Record Hashrate and Mixed Signals, Analysts Eye Potential Rally

Bitcoin continues to show resilience, consolidating near $83,000-$84,000 despite recent volatility and mixed market signals. The cryptocurrency's hashrate hit a record high, indicating strong network security and potentially bullish long-term fundamentals. However, Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows, with some analysts suggesting a possible "shakeout" before further gains. On-chain data reveals accumulation by long-term holders, while short-term investors show signs of panic selling. The cryptocurrency's performance remains impressive compared to traditional assets, with some experts predicting potential rallies to $90,000 or even $150,000. Bitcoin's relationship with gold and its role as a safe-haven asset are being closely watched, especially as economic concerns rise and the dollar faces potential weakness. Meanwhile, altcoins like XRP are gaining attention, with some speculating on their potential for ETF approval. The crypto market continues to navigate regulatory challenges, with stablecoin providers competing to shape US rules. Despite mixed headlines, many analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects, citing factors such as improved risk sentiment and potential breakouts from current price ranges.

Binance Guides Nations on Bitcoin Reserves as Global Crypto Interest Surges

Binance, the leading cryptocurrency exchange, is reportedly advising multiple governments and sovereign wealth funds on establishing strategic Bitcoin reserves. CEO Richard Teng confirmed that several countries have approached Binance for guidance on managing crypto assets and shaping policies, indicating growing global interest in cryptocurrency adoption at a national level.

XRP's Mixed Signals: Outperforming Ethereum Amid Volatility and ETF Speculation

XRP's performance remains mixed amid broader crypto market recovery. While outperforming Ethereum for six months, XRP faces volatility near $2.10 support. ETF speculation fuels optimism, but downside risks persist. Analysts debate XRP's potential to surpass Dogecoin and Solana in the ETF race.

Earnings Events

Netflix Crushes Q1 Earnings Expectations, Projects Strong Growth Amid Leadership Changes

Netflix has delivered a stellar performance in its Q1 2025 earnings report, surpassing Wall Street expectations and showcasing strong growth. The streaming giant reported earnings per share of $6.61, significantly beating the estimated $5.68, while revenue reached $10.54 billion, slightly above the forecasted $10.5 billion. This represents a 13% year-over-year increase in revenue. Netflix's outlook for Q2 is equally impressive, projecting revenue of $11.04 billion and EPS of $7.03, both exceeding analyst estimates. The company's operating margin for Q1 stood at an impressive 31.7%, with free cash flow at $2.66 billion. Netflix attributes its success to pricing strategies and growth in ad-supported tiers. Despite economic uncertainties, the company remains bullish on its 2025 forecast, with revenue tracking above the midpoint of its projected range. In a leadership shake-up, Tim Haley is stepping down, and Reed Hastings will transition to a non-executive chair role. The positive results have led to a rise in Netflix's stock price in after-hours trading.

AmEx and Blackstone Beat Q1 Expectations, Showcase Financial Strength Amid Economic Uncertainty

American Express and Blackstone reported strong Q1 2025 earnings, both surpassing estimates. AmEx posted EPS of $3.64 and revenue of $16.97B, maintaining full-year guidance. Blackstone's distributable EPS hit $1.09, with revenue at $3.29B and AUM reaching $1.17T. Both companies demonstrated resilience in the current economic climate, with AmEx noting steady spending and Blackstone reporting significant inflows of $61.64B.

L'Oreal Defies Market Challenges with 3.5% Q1 Sales Growth, Fueled by European Luxury Demand

L'Oreal reports resilient Q1 sales, with 3.5% growth to €11.73 billion, beating forecasts. Strong European demand for high-end makeup and perfumes offset challenges in the US market. China performed slightly better than expected, contributing to the positive results.

UnitedHealth Shares Nosedive on Earnings Miss and Medicare Concerns

UnitedHealth Group's shares plummeted after reporting lower-than-expected earnings and cutting profit forecasts due to soaring medical care costs, particularly in Medicare Advantage programs.

ABB Beats Q1 Profit Expectations, Plans Robotics Division Spin-Off for 2026

ABB reports strong Q1 profit, beating forecasts with a 13% increase in operational earnings. The company announces plans to spin off and list its robotics division as a separate entity in 2026, signaling a strategic shift.

TSMC Crushes Q1 Expectations with 60% Profit Surge, Forecasts Strong AI-Driven Growth for 2025

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has reported impressive first-quarter results for 2025, surpassing market expectations. The world's largest contract chipmaker posted a net profit of NT$361.6 billion ($11.12 billion), marking a 60% increase from the previous year. This surge in profits was primarily driven by strong demand for semiconductors used in artificial intelligence applications. TSMC's revenue reached NT$839.25 billion, with a gross margin of 58.8% and an operating margin of 48.5%. The company's performance was bolstered by growth in its advanced N3 and N5 processes for high-performance computing. Looking ahead, TSMC forecasts second-quarter revenue between $28.4 billion and $29.2 billion, exceeding analyst estimates. The chipmaker maintains that AI-related sales will double in 2025 and reiterates a mid-20s growth outlook for the year. Despite recent concerns about U.S. tariffs, TSMC reports no changes in customer behavior and continues to see robust AI-related demand.

Healthcare Events

Eli Lilly's Weight-Loss Pill Matches Ozempic's Efficacy, Sending Shares Soaring

Eli Lilly's shares skyrocketed after their experimental weight-loss pill, orforglipron, showed promising results in a late-stage trial. The oral medication rivaled the efficacy of injectable treatments like Ozempic, with patients losing an average of 16 lbs or 7.9% of their body weight. The pill also significantly lowered blood sugar levels, marking a potential breakthrough in diabetes treatment. This development could revolutionize the weight-loss drug market, offering a more convenient alternative to injections.

uniQure's Huntington's Therapy Earns FDA Breakthrough Status, Shares Skyrocket

uniQure's gene therapy for Huntington's disease, AMT-130, receives FDA breakthrough therapy designation, causing shares to surge over 50% pre-market on promising trial results.

Real Estate Events

U.S. Housing Starts Plunge 11.4% in March, but Building Permits Rise Unexpectedly Amid Mixed Economic Signals

The U.S. housing market showed mixed signals in March, with housing starts falling sharply while building permits unexpectedly rose. Housing starts plummeted 11.4% to a 1.324 million-unit pace, well below the expected 1.420 million and the previous month's 1.501 million. This steep decline suggests potential construction layoffs ahead. However, building permits, a forward-looking indicator, increased by 1.6% to 1.482 million units, surpassing expectations of 1.450 million. In other economic news, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index dropped dramatically to -26.4 in April, its lowest level in about a year, with new orders turning sharply negative. Initial jobless claims came in at 215,000, slightly better than the 225,000 forecast. The conflicting data paints a complex picture of the U.S. economy, with some sectors showing resilience while others face significant challenges.

UK Mortgage Market Poised for Stability as Lenders Boost Availability

Bank of England survey reveals UK lenders anticipate increased mortgage availability in the next quarter, while demand for house purchase mortgages is expected to remain stable. This follows a recent uptick in early 2025, suggesting a potential stabilization in the mortgage market.

Mortgage Rates Spike to 6.83%, Hitting 8-Week High and Potentially Cooling Housing Market

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the US surged to 6.83% this week, marking the highest level in eight weeks and the largest weekly increase in a year. This sharp rise could potentially dampen housing demand and put pressure on homebuyers, just as buyer traffic was beginning to improve.

US Housing Market Slumps: Starts Hit 8-Month Low Amid High Costs

US housing starts plummeted in March, hitting an eight-month low for single-family homes. High prices and mortgage rates dampened demand, causing builders to hesitate on new construction.

Environment Events

Energy Department Mulls $10B Cut to Clean Energy Funding

The US Energy Department is contemplating significant cuts, potentially halting nearly $10 billion in federal funding for clean-energy projects, according to a Wall Street Journal report citing department memos.

Technology Events

Tech Markets Soar: AI, IoT, and Web3 Fuel Billion-Dollar Opportunities Across Industries

The tech and finance sectors are buzzing with growth opportunities. Insurance BPO, NDR, and DMA markets are projected to reach billions by 2034. AI, robotaxis, and IoT are driving innovation across industries. Super Micro Computer and Pony AI are capitalizing on AI infrastructure demand. BST offers a high-yield fund for tech investors, while Waaree Renewable Technologies saw an 83% profit surge. Polygon's partnership with Jio aims to bring Web3 to 450M users.

OpenAI-Backed Stargate AI Eyes Major UK Investment for Global Expansion

Stargate AI, backed by OpenAI and SoftBank, is considering a significant investment in the UK to expand its global AI infrastructure. This move could strengthen the company's presence and support its ambitious AI development plans.

Tesla Scales Back Cybertruck Production Goals, Shifts Workers

Tesla reportedly reduces Cybertruck production targets and reassigns some workers, signaling potential challenges in manufacturing the highly anticipated electric pickup.

Corporate Actions Events

Kraken Slashes Workforce in Pre-IPO Efficiency Drive

Crypto exchange Kraken has reportedly laid off hundreds of employees across all departments in recent months. The move aims to streamline operations and boost profitability ahead of its anticipated IPO, as the company prepares for public market scrutiny.

Monte Paschi Shareholders Greenlight CEO's Mediobanca Takeover Bid

Monte Paschi shareholders approved CEO Luigi Lovaglio's bid for rival Mediobanca, advancing his strategic goal. The move signals potential consolidation in Italian banking sector.

Oil And Gas Events

U.S. Natural Gas Storage Increase Misses Forecast, Raising Market Concerns

U.S. natural gas storage increase falls short of expectations, with actual 16B compared to 24B forecast and 57B previous, surprising analysts and potentially impacting market dynamics.

U.S. Oil and Gas Rig Counts Inch Higher, Baker Hughes Reports

Baker Hughes reports slight increase in U.S. oil and gas rig counts. Total rigs rise to 585, with oil rigs at 481 and gas rigs at 98, indicating modest growth in drilling activity.

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Earnings Season is Upon Us… 4-17-25 SPY/ ES Futures, and QQQ/ NQ Futures Weekly Market Analysis

A few things to start with. First, I will be out of town next week. We leave Sunday and don’t return until Saturday. We will be in the Bahamas on a Disney Cruise! I plan to buy a wifi package so I can check in with you guys and of course the markets. Second, I apologize for no TA last night. The baby finally got discharged from the hospital again last night and its just been a rough week with all of that happening.

Next week as I the title suggests is earnings week. We will see some of our larger names start to report earnings such as Tesla, and google.

https://preview.redd.it/tz26ujxgdgve1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=4efea411f3d11dcb3e61abcf72587c9f68abf016

If you some how missed it… the market is CLOSED tomorrow for Good Friday…

https://preview.redd.it/oxbi139hdgve1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c640900f7a71f0ee6f975a0fa8b394de30fda42

Data wise for next week honestly a pretty light week of events/ releases. Biggest market mover likely comes on Friday when we get the U of Mich consumer sentiment release.

SPY/ ES WEEKLY

https://preview.redd.it/rdbl20khdgve1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=55c35e04c016e04585b008230290455a76e8e609

The one thing I was watching this week was for whether the weekly double top would play out or not. I didn’t quite anticipate the massive gap up which makes the double top technically invalid from a candle stand point. However, the bigger thing I am watching here is the fact that we came up and touched the weekly 8ema resistance and had a major rejection on both SPY and ES.

The failure to break through the weekly 8ema is certainly bearish. However, as you can see here the weekly 100ema support at 524.28/ 5279 also held. Much like intraweek here the daily 8 and 20ema levels were our support/ resistance here now on the weekly the 8/ 200ema are the levels to watch.

Because I wont have a post up for you guys at all next week I will give a bigger projection here… as long as the bears continue to reject the weekly 8ema resistance and this weekly yellow bear channel resistance the favor goes to the downside.

If the bears can close us under weekly 200ema support of 524.28/ 5279 next week then the target would be a retest of the double demand/ support from 495.03-504.79/ 5000-5092. The bears must close below that level to see the next major leg down.

If the bulls can hold the weekly 100ema support there is a weekly double bottom that may play out. The double bottom can play out two ways… it can either cause a retest the following week back off weekly 8ema resistance that then sets up the bigger rejection lower or it could be a massive bounce that takes us over weekly 8ema. If the bulls can retake weekly 8ema resistance my target then is weekly 20ema resistance near 566/5712.

SPY WEEKLY LEVELS
Supply- 609.64
Demand- 504.79 -> 570.76

ES WEEKLY LEVELS
Supply- 6130
Demand- 5092 -> 5755

QQQ/ NQ WEEKLY

https://preview.redd.it/ohnw4pzhdgve1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=c7bcd1f89b05deecdd08ce98d7b683b9db53e694

Here on QQQ/ NQ we have a pretty similar setup as we do over on ES/ SPY. One thing that I did not talk about on ES/ SPY that I will mention here is that we did not get a new weekly supply. Generally speaking the failure to put in a new supply despite a rejection like this can play out as a major failed breakdown and lead to even bigger breakout. However, that is only one metric to look at and as of right now I am seeing quite a bit of bearish price action in terms of the EMAs.

When you look at the weekly 8ema of 466.51/19277 here on QQQ/ NQ we have an even more impressive and strong rejection off that and the weekly yellow bear channel. Here on QQQ we officially have three touches of the same trend line which is a VERY strong line to watch.

Much like on ES/ SPY the weekly 100ema support of 444.34/18380 is the level to watch. Here on QQQ/ NQ as you can see the bears are winning just a little bit more here but the fight is not over yet.

If the bulls can double bottom and bounce us here then they must take out and close over 466.4/ 19272 the weekly 8ema resistance. If they manage to do that we will see a bigger break out to 20ema resistance near 485.9/20070.

On the flip side if the bears can hold yellow channel resistance at 454.06/ 18990 next week they will look to close under ideally 422.41/17479 which is demand/ support from our previous lows. That then sets up a weekly 200ema support test near 392.07/ 16178.

QQQ WEEKLY LEVELS
Supply- 383.75 -> 538.18
Demand- 422.41 -> 487.33

NQ WEEKLY LEVELS
Supply- 15857 -> 22191
Demand- 17480 -> 20173

VX/ VIX DAILY

https://preview.redd.it/m27mcweidgve1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=ff609bc78631d70a4d67c9ea47718329e01a4da7

I would call today mostly a flat/ neutral day. Honestly much of the last 3 days was flat and tight range trading. Which we have not seen on an intraday level in quite a while. I have been watching Vx/ VIX closely for a hint of where we may be going next and honestly there really is not a good hint yet.

I thought 4/15s bounce and doji would put in a new demand and cause us to see a breakout on VX/ VIX and a breakdown in the markets. However, we did not get a new demand. So that plays along with the weekly ES/ NQ failure to put in a new supply.

Generally speaking until I see VX/ VIX break and lose the daily 50ema support of 23.54/ 25.77 I struggle to be longer term bullish. Likely this breakout would coincide with a daily 8/ 20ema breakout through resistance too. However, I struggle to see strong continuation lower until we get a closure back over daily 8ema resistance of 29.32/33.27.

As of right now Vx/ VIX is also in a tight choppy range just like the market.

BITCOIN DAILY

https://preview.redd.it/57f1yzridgve1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc3c488d252b2ce85734bfaac0fcde181e3f7e43

The one thing I continue to watch here on bitcoin is the fact that it largely remains unphased by all the market shenanigans. I am actually quite impressed by that. Largely if we zoom out the trend is technically the same as we have seen a downside move that has led to largely consolidation.

Last week it appeared we were seeing a daily 20ema rejection and that 85056-85967 supply/ resistance was going to be the top and that we would get a move back down to test weekly 200ema support at 80771. However, impressively we held the daily 200ema support and now we are actually back over both daily 8 and 20ema resistance.

Bitcoin is attempting to establish 8/ 20ema as support at 83837. If that support holds the next major level to watch is 50/ 100ema resistance at 86835. If the bulls can breakout and close over 50/ 100ema resistance I honestly  could see a larger recovery in both bitcoin and the markets.

However, if that 50/ 100ema resistance rejects or if this 85056-85967 supply/ resistance rejects I would like to see a move back to 80770 the daily 200ema. The bears will then need to close under that level and hold to then look for 77038 demand to be retested.

WEEKLY TRADING LOG

https://preview.redd.it/nyd7cz5jdgve1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=707ade80e65cc7f248838758efec8d7205c8e0e5

I have got to say outside of trading this was just a crazy busy wild week with everything going on. This week for being a 4 day trading week honestly was pretty kind and not too bad. I almost let the week get away from me today on my FFF accounts. I was very much so struggling and I came very close (about $100) from blowing those 4 funded accounts. However, I am happy I put in a perfect week and I am closing out a nice green week with 3 payouts heading into my vacation!

Truly I am a weebit sad that I am leaving for my trip cause I am back on a hot streak and I also have every single account I have setup for a payout next week. But I am also looking forward to some much needed family time and time away from the market!

FFF- I completed day 4 of 7 today. I just need three small days and I will be set up for a great payout from all 4 accounts.

Tradeify- I completed day 6 of 10 today. I am at the point now where I have completed the required consistency rules, buffer and profit target too. For now I just need to flip 4 more days of trading and I will be able to get a payout! This will be my first payout with Tradeify and I am excited for that!

MFFU-
I took a payout in all three accounts this week and all three accounts will be ready for a payout the week I get back!
365/394- just need 2 more $100 days for another payout
395- just need 4 more days of $100 for another payout

If all goes well. Next week I should be able to get 8 payouts between the three firms.


Random thought: If you were thrown in the past when you were 10 years old, losing all skills and memory, and were allowed to bring **one** item, what would you take?

Personally a like 1tb disc filled with data about my life, advice of what to do and what not to, to improve my current life, some dates and winning lottery ticket numbers, BUY BITCOIN, and a LOT of stuff from the news since then. Imma be like a prophet, announcing every event before it happens on an anonymous account on the dark web, leaving people wondering and doubting the reality.