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Monday, July 11, 2022
Crypto Market Outlook Bitcoin: Hovering Above Support
By: Joshua Aldio, Business Associate
Disclaimer: Tokenomy does not provide any investment, financial, accounting, valuation, tax, legal or other professional advice. The opinions expressed in the article is the author’s personal view only. All decisions to buy, sell or trade any Digital Asset using the Services are made solely by you, and you are fully responsible for all such decisions.
The price of BTC could be set for a bullish rebound this year, says Bloomberg’s senior commodity strategist Mike McGlon, as the market shows similar signs to the bottom of 2018. Bloomberg’s senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone is tipping that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) will rebound in the second half (2H) of 2022. Sharing his thoughts to his 48,100 Twitter followers, McGlone saw positive signs in the data Bloomberg’s Galaxy Crypto Index (BGCI) and the 50-week and 100-week moving averages of BTC’s price. He suggested that the current indicators are showing similar signs to the bottom of the bear market in 2018, which preceded a strong rebound in the first half of 2019.
The Bloomberg’s Galaxy Crypto Index (BCGI) is designed to measure the performance of the largest crypto assets to ascertain a general view of the market’s overall performance. Moving averages pinpoint the average price of an asset over a specific amount of time, such as 50 or 100 days.
Crypto winter in 2018 was a rough time for BTC, as the price plunged down from the $16,000 region in January to a market bottom of around $3,200 by mid-December, according to data from CoinGecko. Following the carnage, however, BTC went on to pump to around $13,000 by late June.
McGlone predicted in a follow-up post that BTC is either on track for “one of the greatest bull markets in history at a relatively discounted price to start 2H” or that data is showing that the crypto market is starting to fail and scare away investors.
“Our bias is [that] Bitcoin adoption is more likely to continue rising,” he said.
McGlone likened the washout in 1H to the “2000-02’s bursting Internet bubble,” which saw many firms tank but also paved the way for top companies like Amazon and eBay to grow.
Weighing over the analysis, however, is the fact the bearish conditions have been in large part in response to the United States Federal Reserve’s hawkish monetary policy and inflation reel-in attempts via a series of interest rate hikes.
In 2022, BTC and the overall crypto market have suffered from several macro factors such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, global regulation and unemployment rates. Meanwhile, crypto projects and companies imploding have turned sentiment even more bearish.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
As shown in the chart above, Bitcoin is forming area of demand by ranging at $18,500 to $20,500. We see that Bitcoin also forming a potential reversal pattern called Double Bottom with bullish candlesticks is taking over the movement. We have to wait the break of the double bottom neckline to be confirmed for the next bullish move.
If we see in the bigger timeframe and using Elliot Wave analysis, the next bullish move is only a rebound movement from its bigger bearish structure. Wave 2 has finished with Fibonacci 38.2 level, and we analyze that wave 4 will finish at Fibonacci golden area and continue its bearish to next target at $15,000.
Bitcoin on-Chain Analysis :
Number of New BTC Addresses Reaches New All-Time High
Number of BTC Addresses
The total number of non-zero BTC addresses has been moving upwards since March 2018. This followed a sharp sell-off after the then all time high in December 2017. The rate of increase accelerated greatly after December 2018, when the current bull run began.
Initially, the number of new addresses dipped slightly in April 2021 when BTC reached a local top. However, the upward movement continued afterward in Oct 2021. After another small dip this May, the number of new addresses reached a new all-time high of 42,171,167 on July 7. So, despite the market correction, the interest at BTC is still at an all-time high.
Firstly, the number of addresses with more than one BTC (red) has increased significantly and is at a new all-time high.
However, addresses with more than 10 (blue) and 100 (orange) has decreased since the beginning of 2021. While both have started to increase since March, they are nowhere close to their all-time highs.
So, the data for medium sized addresses shows that while they are increasing since the beginning of the correction, the trend has been mostly downwards since the beginning of 2021.
The readings for large addresses are interesting. While accounts with more than 1,000 (purple) and 10,000 BTC (yellow) fell in the beginning of 2021, they have begun to increase sharply since March (red circle). Therefore, while large addresses started to distribute their holdings in the beginning of 2021, they have begun to stack at a significant rate since the correction began.
Trading Call : Buy on Neckline Breakout at $22,200
To Holding BTC Right Now
While we are doing DCA ‘Dollar-Cost-Averaging’ and waiting the bull cycle of BTC, we can utilize our BTC asset by using Fixed Deposit feature in our platform to earn more BTC rather than just hold and waiting.
Traders and investors can utilize Tokenomy’s Dual Currency Deposit to place pending limit orders and earn yield while waiting for the order to be executed.
For more info please contact our team on www.tokenomy.com
SIGN UP NOW AT TOKENOMY.COM
Crypto Market Outlook Bitcoin: Hovering Above Support
By: Joshua Aldio, Business Associate
Disclaimer: Tokenomy does not provide any investment, financial, accounting, valuation, tax, legal or other professional advice. The opinions expressed in the article is the author’s personal view only. All decisions to buy, sell or trade any Digital Asset using the Services are made solely by you, and you are fully responsible for all such decisions.
The price of BTC could be set for a bullish rebound this year, says Bloomberg’s senior commodity strategist Mike McGlon, as the market shows similar signs to the bottom of 2018. Bloomberg’s senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone is tipping that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) will rebound in the second half (2H) of 2022. Sharing his thoughts to his 48,100 Twitter followers, McGlone saw positive signs in the data Bloomberg’s Galaxy Crypto Index (BGCI) and the 50-week and 100-week moving averages of BTC’s price. He suggested that the current indicators are showing similar signs to the bottom of the bear market in 2018, which preceded a strong rebound in the first half of 2019.
The Bloomberg’s Galaxy Crypto Index (BCGI) is designed to measure the performance of the largest crypto assets to ascertain a general view of the market’s overall performance. Moving averages pinpoint the average price of an asset over a specific amount of time, such as 50 or 100 days.
Crypto winter in 2018 was a rough time for BTC, as the price plunged down from the $16,000 region in January to a market bottom of around $3,200 by mid-December, according to data from CoinGecko. Following the carnage, however, BTC went on to pump to around $13,000 by late June.
McGlone predicted in a follow-up post that BTC is either on track for “one of the greatest bull markets in history at a relatively discounted price to start 2H” or that data is showing that the crypto market is starting to fail and scare away investors.
“Our bias is [that] Bitcoin adoption is more likely to continue rising,” he said.
McGlone likened the washout in 1H to the “2000-02’s bursting Internet bubble,” which saw many firms tank but also paved the way for top companies like Amazon and eBay to grow.
Weighing over the analysis, however, is the fact the bearish conditions have been in large part in response to the United States Federal Reserve’s hawkish monetary policy and inflation reel-in attempts via a series of interest rate hikes.
In 2022, BTC and the overall crypto market have suffered from several macro factors such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, global regulation and unemployment rates. Meanwhile, crypto projects and companies imploding have turned sentiment even more bearish.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
As shown in the chart above, Bitcoin is forming area of demand by ranging at $18,500 to $20,500. We see that Bitcoin also forming a potential reversal pattern called Double Bottom with bullish candlesticks is taking over the movement. We have to wait the break of the double bottom neckline to be confirmed for the next bullish move.
If we see in the bigger timeframe and using Elliot Wave analysis, the next bullish move is only a rebound movement from its bigger bearish structure. Wave 2 has finished with Fibonacci 38.2 level, and we analyze that wave 4 will finish at Fibonacci golden area and continue its bearish to next target at $15,000.
Bitcoin on-Chain Analysis :
Number of New BTC Addresses Reaches New All-Time High
Number of BTC Addresses
The total number of non-zero BTC addresses has been moving upwards since March 2018. This followed a sharp sell-off after the then all time high in December 2017. The rate of increase accelerated greatly after December 2018, when the current bull run began.
Initially, the number of new addresses dipped slightly in April 2021 when BTC reached a local top. However, the upward movement continued afterward in Oct 2021. After another small dip this May, the number of new addresses reached a new all-time high of 42,171,167 on July 7. So, despite the market correction, the interest at BTC is still at an all-time high.
Firstly, the number of addresses with more than one BTC (red) has increased significantly and is at a new all-time high.
However, addresses with more than 10 (blue) and 100 (orange) has decreased since the beginning of 2021. While both have started to increase since March, they are nowhere close to their all-time highs.
So, the data for medium sized addresses shows that while they are increasing since the beginning of the correction, the trend has been mostly downwards since the beginning of 2021.
The readings for large addresses are interesting. While accounts with more than 1,000 (purple) and 10,000 BTC (yellow) fell in the beginning of 2021, they have begun to increase sharply since March (red circle). Therefore, while large addresses started to distribute their holdings in the beginning of 2021, they have begun to stack at a significant rate since the correction began.
Trading Call : Buy on Neckline Breakout at $22,200
To Holding BTC Right Now
While we are doing DCA ‘Dollar-Cost-Averaging’ and waiting the bull cycle of BTC, we can utilize our BTC asset by using Fixed Deposit feature in our platform to earn more BTC rather than just hold and waiting.
Traders and investors can utilize Tokenomy’s Dual Currency Deposit to place pending limit orders and earn yield while waiting for the order to be executed.
For more info please contact our team on www.tokenomy.com
SIGN UP NOW AT TOKENOMY.COM
Central African Republic launches "Sango" cryptocurrency hub
The Central African Republic is launching the cryptocurrency hub "Sango" aimed at promoting innovation and attracting businesses.
The official Sango documentation states that the government will create a dedicated legal framework for cryptocurrencies by the end of the year.
The site also posted a link to a video describing the SANGO Coin genesis event. The video describes the asset as "the birth of a new digital monetary system."
Among Sango's features are:
- Electronic Residency Program.
- Citizenship Program.
- Tokenization of natural resources.
- "The only metaverse backed by reality."
It is unclear what exactly that last feature entails, but the Central African Republic has made it known that it is interested in the metaverse.
The Sango cryptocurrency hub was first announced in May, with the government saying it would encourage innovation. The hub will be based on an island called Sango, and residents will not be subject to corporate or income taxes.
Like Malta's blockchain island, the Touadรฉra administration hopes these amenities will attract business and entrepreneurship.
Central African Republic bets on cryptocurrencies and blockchain
The Central African Republic has been in the media spotlight in recent months as the country turns to cryptocurrencies to boost its economy. The country recently made Bitcoin legal tender, joining El Salvador in doing so.
Obviously, the decision to make Bitcoin legal tender was met with criticism and disapproval from global organizations, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
These authorities consider that the cryptocurrency market has many risks and that legalizing cryptocurrencies could create macroeconomic and legal risks.
Other countries will closely monitor how cryptocurrencies can benefit their economies. The Central African Republic is perhaps an extreme case of countries adopting cryptocurrencies and may face some bumps along the way.
But developing countries want to leverage technology to drive digitalization.
๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ ๐น๐ผ๐; ๐๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ป ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ผ๐น ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ด๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐๐ต ๐ต๐ถ๐ด๐ต; ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ฎ ๐ฝ๐๐บ๐ฝ๐ ๐ผ๐๐ ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐ป๐ธ ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฏ๐; ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐ป๐ธ ๐ฟ๐๐ป ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐๐๐ ๐ฏ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ ๐ผ๐๐ ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ฎ; ๐ป๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ ๐ ๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐ธ
There was a US Treasury 3 year bond auction earlier today delivering higher yields. It was very well supported delivering a median yield of 3.04%, up from 2.87% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.
In the US we should also note that now more than 5% of new car sales are electric, which is considered a tipping point from where mass adoption of EVs will rise fast from here. (In New Zealand we are at about 3%.)
More electric demand is problematic for some states there. Demand due to summer heat alone is drawing warnings in Texas that they face blackouts again this year.
Wall Street is getting ready for their Q2 earnings reports and expectations are low for what is to come. Overall, earnings growth of +4.3% is anticipated for this upcoming set, the lowest gains since 2020.
Big banks and other financial companies will dominate the early part of the scheduled releases later this week. PepsiCo will report tomorrow and Delta Air Lines on Thursday, NZT. They start a flood of releases.
China is successfully pumping bank debt out the door is a rather spectacular way. In June, new yuan loans increased by ¥2.81 tln (+NZ$0.7 tln), a year-on-year increase of +24% taking their total bank debt to ¥205 tln (NZ$50 tln) or 173% of annual economic activity. For perspective, the same ratio in New Zealand is 148% and for the US is just 70%.
China isn't shaking its pandemic risks and new lockdowns seem inevitable, keeping supply chain troubles bubbling away.
Meanwhile, China has a new and explosive bank-run risk. A large crowd of angry Chinese bank depositors faced off with police on Sunday, some roughed up as they were taken away, in a case that has drawn attention because of earlier attempts to use a COVID-19 tracking app to prevent them from mobilising.
Hundreds of people held up banners and chanted slogans on the steps of the branch of China's central bank in the city of Zhengzhou, Henan Province, about 620 km southwest of Beijing.
Video taken by a protester shows plainclothes security teams being pelted with water bottles and other objects as they charge the crowd. The protesters are among thousands of customers who opened accounts at six rural banks in Henan and neighbouring Anhui Province that offered higher interest rates.
They later found they could not withdraw their funds after media reports that the head of the banks' parent company was on the run and wanted for financial crimes. This is the type of bank run by depositors that Beijing fears.
And we should also note that foot & mouth cattle disease has broken out in Indonesia, and travelers from Bali especially are at risk of bringing it back. The risk is much higher for Australia of course, but it is not trivial for us either.
The price of gold will open today at US$1736/oz which is -US$7 lower than this time yesterday.
And oil prices have moved back down -US$1 to just under US$101.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still just over US$105/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar will open today down more than -½c from this time yesterday at 61.3 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are +½c firmer at 90.8 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 60.8 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 70.4 and a minor -20 bps lower.
The bitcoin price has slipped fractionally since this time yesterday and is now at US$20,595 and down +1.4%. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/-2.2%.
Source: Interest .co .nz
*** CHART-1: In the first half of the year, Bitcoin lost 60% of its value, but this does not stand out from the general number of IT companies that have lost from 23% to 74% of their capitalization in the same time ***
*** CHART-2: The Euro is at its lowest level since 2002, down 36% from its 2008 peak ***
*** MAP: Global map of countries vulnerable to a sovereign debt default ***
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