Friday, October 13, 2023

Help me with my cognitive dissonance. How do we reconcile betting on the continued expansion of the economy, with the knowledge that a continually expanding economy will destroy the planet?

The title encapsulates my question.

Edit: I'm honestly amazed that so many who've commented think nothing is wrong and that I'm just a doomer out dooming. Many of you have asked for "sources" lol. The science on the greenhouse effect has been published since the 1960s and if you don't care now nothing I post will change your mind.

Our economy is fundamentally based on finite resources, if they weren't finite then it wouldn't work, it's literally that simple. From blueberries to Bitcoin, something from the ground has to be expended to create them and turn a profit. Even if you don't believe in climate change, there's only so much we can dig out of the ground and burn (decreasing), there's only so much soil to grow food in (decreasing rapidly), and there's only so much water we can drink (also decreasing).

Politics aside, just dealing with hurricane after hurricane or wildfire is incredibly expensive and damages our economy - if those events are more common, spoiler, they are, then it seems prudent to consider such things when financially planning for the long term.


The Ripple Effect: SEC’s Non-Appeal Decision Sparks Positive Uproar in Bitcoin Circles

In a landscape often punctuated by regulatory hurdles and cautionary tales, the cryptocurrency market has found a triumphant narrative through Grayscale’s resilient venture into establishing a spot Bitcoin ETF. This journey, which has now been subtly endorsed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision not to appeal a favorable court ruling for Grayscale, crafts a new chapter in the annals of crypto-regulation and market maturity.

Grayscale’s Unwavering Pursuit Amidst Regulatory Resistance

Grayscale’s ambitious endeavor began with a bid to convert its Bitcoin Trust into a spot Bitcoin ETF, a move that promised to usher in a wave of regulated Bitcoin investment. However, the SEC, maintaining its traditionally conservative approach towards crypto-based investment vehicles, declined the application. Undeterred, Grayscale escalated the matter to court, sparking a legal battle that culminated in a vindication of their initiative, as the court sided against the SEC’s initial rejection in late August.

The SEC Stands Down: A Surprising and Welcome Development

As the SEC silently let the final day for an appeal lapse without action, the crypto community exhaled in collective relief and tentative celebration. Following the news, Bitcoin’s price experienced a subtle yet optimistic 1% increase, illustrating the market's positive reception of the development. Beyond this immediate impact, however, analysts suggest that the SEC’s decision could be a harbinger for a more accommodating regulatory environment for spot Bitcoin ETFs moving forward.

Parsing the Potential: Future Implications of the Decision

Experts have now kindled the expectation that this development significantly heightens the likelihood of the SEC green-lighting future spot Bitcoin ETFs. The prospect of regulated direct exposure to Bitcoin, devoid of the necessity to navigate through the technical and security challenges of holding the cryptocurrency, stands as an appealing prospect to both institutional and individual investors. Furthermore, it bridges the crypto market with traditional financial structures, enabling a smoother integration of digital assets into conventional investment strategies.

Grayscale: A Beacon of Perseverance and Innovation

Grayscale, through its tenacious legal pursuit and unwavering commitment to broadening regulated cryptocurrency investment avenues, has positioned itself as a vanguard in the financial innovation sphere within the crypto space. The victory not only underpins its endeavors but also could potentially serve as a catalyst, encouraging other financial entities to explore and challenge existing regulatory norms, fostering a climate of innovation and integration within traditional and digital finance realms alike.

Wider Ramifications on the Cryptocurrency Landscape

While immediate impacts, such as the slight uptick in Bitcoin’s price, are readily observable, the undercurrents of this event may harbor longer-lasting implications for cryptocurrency adoption and its intersection with traditional finance. The SEC’s non-appeal and the resultant legal precedent might embolden other financial entities to innovate and integrate cryptocurrency into their offerings, gradually dismantling barriers to mainstream crypto adoption.

Conclusion: A New Dawn for Bitcoin ETFs?

The unfolding of events culminating in the SEC’s non-appeal to the Grayscale case victory potentially signals a subtle yet significant shift in the regulatory and investment landscape of the cryptocurrency market. While the short-term market response has been mildly positive, the longer-term implications may see a gradual evolution towards a more integrated and regulated financial market where digital and traditional assets converge seamlessly. In such a landscape, the role of regulatory bodies like the SEC, and pioneering firms like Grayscale, will undeniably sculpt the future trajectory of global finance.

Footnotes:

https://youtube.com/shorts/Sdo--o_BTb0?feature=share

https://bcubc.life/2023/10/13/the-ripple-effect-secs-non-appeal-decision-sparks-positive-uproar-in-bitcoin-circles/

https://en.bitcoinsistemi.com/breaking-sec-wont-object-to-grayscales-spot-bitcoin-etf-case-bitcoin-is-on-the-move/?utm_source=CryptoNews&utm_medium=app


Top 3 Crypto Casinos 2023

The crypto world is evolving at a pace we can barely keep up with. With it comes an exciting intersection of traditional online entertainment and the new age of decentralized currencies.

BC.game - Up to 3BTC deposit bonuses + WIN up to 1BTC every day on BC wheel TOP CHOICE

Duelbits - Up to 50% rakeback + up to 100% welcome bonus

Gamdom - Instant rakeback on all bets no wager required!

New Crypto Casinos - Best crypto bonuses and sites

One of the most booming sectors within this intersection is crypto casinos. Here's a brief look into the top 3 crypto casinos in 2023:

  1. BC Game
    Overview: BC Game has been a pioneer in the crypto gambling industry. It distinguishes itself from many other platforms by offering a plethora of games that are both innovative and exciting.
    Unique Features: One thing that stands out about BC Game is its in-house developed games, offering users a fresh and unique gambling experience. The platform also boasts a robust provably fair system, which allows players to verify the fairness of every bet.
    Supported Cryptocurrencies: BC Game supports a wide range of cryptocurrencies, including BTC, ETH, DOGE, and many others. This flexibility is a boon for those who prefer to gamble in different currencies.
  2. Duelbits
    Overview: Duelbits has rapidly emerged as a favourite in the crypto casino space, especially among the younger audience. Its sleek design and user-friendly interface combined with high stake games make it a go-to platform for many.
    Unique Features: Duelbits provides an array of traditional casino games, such as Roulette and Dice, alongside its unique and interactive live game shows. Another significant highlight is the Duelbits store, where players can exchange their rewards for various luxury items and gadgets.
    Supported Cryptocurrencies: Primarily supporting Bitcoin and Ethereum, Duelbits has recently expanded its portfolio to include other popular cryptos, making transactions more versatile for its users.
  3. Gamdom
    Overview: Gamdom is known for its vast community and interactive user experience. With a perfect blend of traditional games and new formats, it offers something for everyone.
    Unique Features: Gamdom shines with its social features. The chat system, community events, and daily bonuses provide an engaged community platform beyond just gambling. It also incorporates progressive jackpots and a rainbot feature, distributing free coins to active users.
    Supported Cryptocurrencies: Gamdom provides a broad spectrum of supported cryptos, such as BTC, ETH, LTC, and more. It's one of the platforms which is continually evolving to incorporate the needs of the crypto community.

📉 Is it Time to Consider Shifting from Ethereum (ETH) to Bitcoin (BTC)?

Is it time to rethink your crypto portfolio?

Ethereum (ETH) has been facing a challenging month, with its price slipping by over 7.5% and hitting a seven-month low of around $1,520. The world's second-largest cryptocurrency has pulled back by approximately 28% from its yearly highs near $2,150 earlier this year.

In contrast, Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has seen more modest losses of around 0.5% for the month, currently trading in the mid-$26,000s, down roughly 16% from its yearly highs achieved in June.

Given this divergence, some investors are pondering whether it's the right time to swap their Ether for Bitcoin. Here are three compelling reasons why such a move might be a good idea:

1️⃣ Technical Indicators Signal Bearish Trends: The ETH/BTC trading pair has been ensnared in a bearish falling wedge pattern for almost a year. About a week ago, this pattern was breached to the downside, and since then, ETH/BTC has encountered strong resistance at the previous support-turned-resistance trendline.

This, coupled with recent struggles against key moving averages, suggests that bearish momentum persists. These technical developments indicate a continuation of the recent bearish sentiment, with a potential test of mid-2022 lows around 0.049 on the horizon.

2️⃣ Challenges to Ethereum's Demand and Inflation: Ethereum is grappling with issues related to demand and inflation. Spot trading volumes across major cryptocurrency exchanges are shrinking, which is indicative of lackluster demand for cryptocurrencies in general. This waning demand is particularly pronounced for Ethereum. Despite the recent launch of several Ether futures Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States, trading volumes have been disappointing. These Ether futures trading volumes have been dwindling significantly since March.

According to data from The Block, in September, Ether futures trading volumes were only about $250 billion, down from roughly $770 billion in March. On-chain metrics, including active users, transfer counts, total transfer volume, and new addresses, have stagnated, leading to low gas fees. Moreover, the supply of Ether has become inflationary.

All these factors raise concerns about Ether's demand. Staking yields for ETH are consistently below 4%, compared to nearly 5% for long-term US government bonds, which are considered a risk-free asset. Investors may prefer the safety of the bond market over the lower yields and higher risk of Ether.

3️⃣ Bitcoin's Attractiveness as a Near-Term Investment: Bitcoin appears to be a more appealing near-term investment option due to its relatively better technical outlook and lower regulatory risks.

In contrast to Ethereum, Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency explicitly stated by the current SEC leadership not to be considered a security. The SEC has been actively pursuing lawsuits against major US companies and designating cryptocurrencies as securities. While the SEC hasn't definitively labeled Ethereum as a security, Chairman Gary Gensler has expressed his opinion that ETH might be considered one. This regulatory uncertainty keeps investors on edge regarding Ethereum's status in the US.

The only way to alleviate this concern is through comprehensive crypto legislation passed by Congress or decisive victories for crypto firms in ongoing SEC lawsuits, which are unlikely to conclude soon. In comparison, Bitcoin stands as a more secure asset within the cryptocurrency space. Furthermore, a bright future is anticipated for Bitcoin, with expectations of the SEC approving various spot Bitcoin ETFs and the upcoming halving event in April.

Thus, now might be the opportune time to contemplate shifting your portfolio towards Bitcoin.

In a market filled with uncertainties and fluctuations, a strategic shift in your cryptocurrency holdings could be the key to securing a more stable and promising future. Is it time to rethink your crypto portfolio? 📉💭 #Ethereum #Bitcoin #CryptoInvestment #CryptocurrencyAnalysis


A batch of 190,000 Ethereum options will expire today 13/10/2023

A batch of 190,000 Ethereum options will expire today. These have a max pain point of $1,600 and a notional value of $290 million. 

https://preview.redd.it/jjnh0u9jqytb1.png?width=839&format=png&auto=webp&s=74cc3601ff2771c967f300bf0a62ce088403e69b

Furthermore, the Ethereum contracts have a put/call ratio of 0.71, which means more calls are being sold than puts as ETH remains bearish. 

Ethereum Price in USD 1M Chart.

This week’s options expiry event is unlikely to shake spot markets, which have declined $54 billion over the past seven days. 

Total capitalization is currently $1.08 trillion, with very little movement over the past 24 hours. However, sentiment and direction remain bearish, so there could be further losses over the weekend. 

Personal opinion:

Personally I think that the market will not even notice and that this new is already priced in.

Source: https://ailtra.ai/bitcoin-options-expiry-crypto-markets/


Top Crypto Algo Trading Bot strategies To Consider in 2023

Algorithmic cryptocurrency trading platforms such as Aesir are empowering retail investors and helping them level the playing field, with a series of tools which can be used to create highly profitable crypto algo trading bots. Naturally, the advantage of such strategies is the lack of constant manual input, and increased accuracy due to it, as well as mitigating an emotional response. Another important advantage that trading bots offer is they open brand new trading opportunities, which could not be traded manually. In this article we’re looking at some of the best, proven algorithmic crypto strategies that you can consider for your next bot.

The origin of cryptocurrency trading bots

The first algorithmic trading systems came onto the market in the early 90s, and they have been initially employed by big financial institutions such as Bloomberg, Blackrock and JP Morgan. At the time, exchange data was incredibly expensive so retail investors has little to no chance of creating their own trading systems. Not to mention that very few exchanges (if any) has an API that allowed for algorithmic trading. The first introduction of algorithmic trading to the “public” took place in 2004 with the release of MetaTrader 4 terminal, which would aggregate exchanges and allow quant traders to code their own trading bots.

We’ve come a long way since then with algorithmic cryptocurrency trading platforms such as Aesir, that allow users to easily create, test and run powerful crypto trading bots with no code at all.

crypto algo trading strategies to consider

There are many types of strategies that can be employed on the cryptocurrency market. They fall into several categories, including analysis-type strategies, entry-based strategies, market analysis strategies, parameter-based strategies, and time-based strategies. Each category has its own benefits and drawbacks, making it crucial for traders to understand them thoroughly before diving into trading.

Analysis-Type Trading Bots:

  • Analysis-type strategies involve measuring and analyzing the performance of one or many financial assets with the use of financial instruments such as technical indicators, oscillators and moving averages. These can also include indicators such as price, volume, or even less tangible factors like sentiment analysis of news or social media chatter.
  • A sentiment analysis bot might analyze social media and news outlets for positive or negative sentiment about a particular cryptocurrency, then make trades based on this sentiment. If sentiment is particularly positive, the bot might buy, anticipating a price increase. If sentiment is negative, the bot might sell.

Macro Analysis Trading Bots:

  • Macro analysis strategies involve bots analyzing broader market trends or conditions, not just those related to a specific asset or group of assets. These strategies might involve factors such as overall market volatility, the performance of particular sectors, or notable news or global events that are about to or are currently unfolding.
  • A bot using a market analysis strategy might be programmed to buy a diversified portfolio of assets when the overall market drops by a certain percentage, anticipating a recovery. For instance - the announcement of a recession or an increase in national / global inflation may trigger certain financial assets to temporarily dip.

Time-Based Trading Bots:

  • Time-based strategies involve making trades based on the time of day, week, month, or year. These types of trading bots are less concerned with timing the market, and more focused on averaging out over a longer period of time.
  • A time-based bot might be programmed to buy a certain financial asset periodically, every week. This can be as simple as a weekly DCA across one or multiple assets, or more complex, by also combining certain analysis into the logic.

Crypto Trading Bot Tactics

Trading tactics are a specific set of rules that your trading bot will follow. Unlike strategies, which can be relatively broadly defined, tactics are a lot more detailed Here are some popular cryptocurrency trading bot tactics to consider in 2023.

Mean Reversion Trading Bots:

This strategy is based on the statistical concept that prices and returns eventually move back towards the mean or average. A bot using mean reversion will buy when the price is below the average and sell when it’s above the average. For example, if the 30-day moving average of a cryptocurrency’s price is $100 and the current price drops to $80, a mean reversion bot would see this as a buying opportunity, expecting the price to return to its mean.

Momentum Trading Bots:

This strategy involves buying assets that are trending up and selling assets that are trending down. It’s based on the idea that assets which have performed well recently will continue to do so, and vice versa. For instance, if a cryptocurrency’s price has been steadily increasing over the last few days or weeks, a momentum trading bot would buy that asset in anticipation of the price continuing to rise.

Arbitrage Trading Bots:

Arbitrage involves taking advantage of price differences across different markets or exchanges. The bot would buy a cryptocurrency on an exchange where the price is low and sell it on another where the price is higher. For instance, if Bitcoin is trading for $30,000 on Exchange A but $31,000 on Exchange B, an arbitrage bot would buy Bitcoin on Exchange A and sell it on Exchange B, pocketing the $1,000 difference.

Machine Learning (ML) Trading Bots:

ML strategies involve using complex algorithms to predict future price movements. These algorithms can be based on historical price data, trading volumes, and a variety of other factors. For example, an ML bot might use a neural network to analyze patterns in historical price data and predict future price movements. These predictions are then used to execute trades.

News-Based Crypto Trading Bots:

This strategy involves programming a bot to execute trades based on news events. The bot would scan news headlines and social media feeds for keywords related to cryptocurrencies and execute trades based on this information. For instance, if there’s a news headline about a major company investing in Bitcoin, a news-based trading bot might immediately buy Bitcoin in anticipation of a price increase.

Crypto Trading Bot Objectives and Goals

It’s important to remember that while these strategies can be profitable, they also carry risk. Market conditions can change quickly, and trading bots need to be carefully monitored and adjusted accordingly. Furthermore, bots are as good as their underlying strategies and the soundness of their programming, so not all bots are equally effective or safe to use. It’s always essential to do your due diligence before employing a bot for cryptocurrency trading.

Regardless of the strategy, the main objective remains consistent - increasing cash flow for traders. To assess any strategy, it’s essential to understand the global economy’s influence on the market, including its impact on liquidity, prices, and critical levels. This analysis will provide insight into the market situation and future expectations. Backtesting is the subsequent step, considering data like analysis and historical trends. After formulating and backtesting a strategy, traders can apply it in a real scenario, starting with smaller investments and examining each trade’s outcome.

In 2023, some of the most effective cryptocurrency trading bot strategies include mean reversion, momentum trading, arbitrage, machine learning, and news-based trading. With a 24/7 operational timeline, trading bots capitalize on more opportunities than human traders can. Moreover, bots eliminate losses attributable to emotional trading.

Aesir stands out as an innovative platform for automated trading. Users can take advantage of Aesir’s copy trading feature, which enables them to see and clone the configurations of other successful traders on the Social Hub with a single click. This powerful feature makes the platform especially user-friendly and accessible, even for novice traders.

In conclusion, algorithmic cryptocurrency trading is a game-changer for traders aiming to make a profit in the digital asset market. With platforms like Aesir and trading bots that offer strategies such as mean reversion, momentum trading, arbitrage, machine learning, or news-based trading, automated trading provides an efficient, reliable, and profitable way to navigate the volatile cryptocurrency market.

The best way to learn algorithmic cryptocurrency trading is by doing, and on Aesir you can test your strategies risk free using our paper trading mode. Get started!