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Core Inflation Ticks Up to 2.8% in February, Complicating Fed's Rate Cut Plans
February's PCE data shows inflation remains sticky, with core PCE rising to 2.8%, above expectations of 2.7%. Personal income increased 0.8%, while spending rose 0.4%. The data suggests inflation pressures persist, potentially delaying Fed rate cuts.
UK Retail Sales Surge, GDP Growth Steady Amid Mixed European Economic Data
UK retail sales unexpectedly rose 1% in February, beating forecasts. GDP grew 0.1% QoQ and 1.5% YoY in Q4. Inflation in France and Spain slowed, while Dutch manufacturing confidence declined slightly.
Trump Warns Automakers Against Price Hikes Amid Tariff Confusion
President Trump warned top U.S. automaker CEOs not to raise car prices due to tariffs, leaving executives baffled. The move could lead to higher prices, fewer choices, and supply chain disruptions for consumers as automakers grapple with the 25% tariff on imports.
CoreWeave's Nasdaq Debut: AI Cloud Provider Rallies Despite Downsized IPO
Nvidia-backed CoreWeave debuts on Nasdaq after a downsized $1.5B IPO, priced at $40/share instead of the targeted $47-$55. Despite the lower pricing, shares are indicated to open higher, potentially reaching $50, signaling strong investor interest in AI companies.
Trump and Carney Plan Post-Election Meeting Amid Trade Dispute
President Trump and Canadian PM Carney held a productive call amid trade tensions. They agreed to meet after Canada's upcoming election to discuss a new economic and security relationship, with Carney confirming retaliatory tariffs will be implemented.
Other News
Stock Markets Events
Wall Street Braces for April Volatility as Economic Factors Collide and ECB Signals Potential Rate Cuts
Wall Street faces a turbulent April as multiple economic factors converge. The looming tariff deadline, upcoming jobs report, and persistent recession fears are creating uncertainty in the markets. Meanwhile, European inflation rates are undershooting expectations, supporting potential ECB rate cuts. ECB Vice President de Guindos remains optimistic about the disinflation process, predicting the inflation goal will be reached in the coming months. However, concerns over a potential trade war and its impact on economic growth are casting a shadow over the global financial landscape. Investors are closely watching these developments as they navigate volatile market conditions.
Macro Events
Core Inflation Ticks Up as Consumer Spending Rebounds, Complicating Fed's Rate Cut Outlook
The latest economic data reveals a mixed picture of the U.S. economy, with inflation remaining sticky while consumer spending shows signs of resilience. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose 2.5% year-over-year in February, matching expectations. However, the core PCE index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased to 2.8% annually, above the anticipated 2.7%.
Consumer Sentiment Plummets as Inflation Fears Surge to 30-Year High, Raising Economic Red Flags
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index has fallen to 57.0 in March, its lowest level since July 2022 and below the forecasted 57.9. This decline signals potential economic concerns among U.S. consumers. Notably, inflation expectations have risen sharply, with one-year ahead expectations jumping to 5% and five-year ahead expectations increasing to 4.1%, the highest level since February 1993. These figures surpass economists' estimates and indicate growing worries about persistent inflation. The current conditions index slightly improved to 63.8, while consumer expectations dropped to 52.6. This data suggests a complex economic landscape, with consumers expressing unease about both present circumstances and future economic prospects.
Fed's Daly Stands Firm on 2025 Rate Cut Projection, Urges Patience
Fed's Daly maintains that two rate cuts in 2025 remain reasonable, advocating a wait-and-see approach to monetary policy. She emphasizes solid growth and labor markets while prioritizing a sustainable path to 2% inflation, allowing industries time to adjust to tariffs.
Bitcoin Tumbles Below $85K as Inflation Data Sparks Market Jitters, Dividing Analyst Opinions
Bitcoin's price has taken a hit, dropping below $85,000 amid several market pressures. A hot inflation report showing Core PCE rising 0.4%, higher than expected, spooked investors and led to a sell-off. The cryptocurrency's value slumped to around $83,920, with trading volume jumping 17% as long positions were liquidated. This downturn comes despite Bitcoin recently hitting a record high in computing power at 862 EH/s. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has warned of a potential crash, while Michael Saylor maintains an optimistic long-term outlook, predicting a $500 trillion market cap. The price drop is occurring in tandem with sliding stocks and uncertainty about the Fed's rate cut plans. Analysts are divided on whether this is a buying opportunity or the start of a deeper correction.
German Unemployment Unexpectedly Rises in March, Rate Hits 6.3%
German unemployment rate rose to 6.3% in March, higher than expected. Unemployment increased by 26,000, surpassing forecasts. Total unemployed reached 2.967 million, reflecting a challenging job market.
German Finance Minister Sounds Alarm on Tariffs' Economic Impact
German Finance Minister Kukies warns that higher tariffs will severely impact German automakers and the overall economy. He emphasizes that such measures would also harm the U.S. economy, stating there are "only losers in a trade conflict."
ECB Rate Cut Expected: Markets Predict April Reduction and Lower December Deposit Rate
Money markets anticipate an 80% likelihood of a 25 basis point ECB rate cut in April. They also project the ECB deposit rate to decrease to 1.9% by December, down from 1.95% in late Thursday's estimates.
China Warns of Retaliation Against US Reciprocal Tariffs Set for April 2
China vows to retaliate if the US proceeds with reciprocal tariffs on April 2, threatening countermeasures to protect its interests, according to Chinese state media reports.
Canada's Budget Deficit Expands: January Shortfall Hits C$5.13 Billion
Canada's budget deficit widened in January to C$5.13 billion, compared to a C$1 billion surplus previously. The year-over-year deficit increased to C$26.85 billion from C$21.72 billion, as government spending outpaced revenue growth.
German Finance Minister: Tariffs Spell Doom for Auto Industry and Economy
German Finance Minister warns that higher tariffs will severely impact German automakers and the economy. He emphasizes that tariffs will harm both German and U.S. economies, stating there are no winners in trade conflicts.
Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Estimate Plunges to -2.8%, Signaling Potential Economic Contraction
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q1 2025 GDP has plummeted to -2.8%, a significant drop from -1.8% just days ago. This sharp decline is primarily attributed to weak net exports, which are estimated to reduce growth by nearly 4.8%. The estimate has fallen dramatically from +3.9% in less than three months.
India Mulls Tariff Cuts on US Farm Goods to Avert Trade Tensions
India is contemplating lowering tariffs on US farm imports, including almonds and cranberries, in response to American demands. This move aims to prevent potential reciprocal tariffs from President Trump and improve trade relations. The offer comes as India seeks to address global trade concerns and make concessions to the US.
Corporate Actions Events
CoreWeave's Nasdaq Debut: AI Cloud Provider Rallies Despite Downsized IPO
CoreWeave, an Nvidia-backed AI cloud provider, debuts on Nasdaq after a downsized IPO. Initially targeting $2.3B at $47-$55/share, it settled for $1.5B at $40/share. Despite the weaker-than-expected pricing, shares are indicated to open higher, ranging from $43 to $50. This debut tests investor appetite for AI amid heightened worries, with Nvidia seeing a $200 million market cap loss ahead of CoreWeave's listing.
Musk's xAI Acquires X for $33 Billion in All-Stock Deal
Elon Musk's AI company xAI has acquired social media platform X (formerly Twitter) in an all-stock deal. The transaction values xAI at $80 billion and X at $33 billion, representing a $10 billion loss from its previous valuation.
Blackstone Eyes Minority Stake in TikTok's U.S. Spinoff Amid Ownership Concerns
Blackstone, a major investment firm, is considering acquiring a minority stake in TikTok's potential U.S. spinoff, as the app faces pressure to reduce Chinese ownership.
Geopolitics Events
Trump and Carney Hold "Productive" Call, Plan Post-Election Meeting Amid Trade Tensions
President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney held a phone call described as "extremely productive" amid escalating trade tensions between the two nations. The leaders discussed tariffs, trade, and the economy, with Carney informing Trump of Canada's intention to implement retaliatory tariffs. Despite the ongoing trade dispute, both parties agreed to engage in comprehensive negotiations on a new economic and security relationship. Trump and Carney have scheduled a meeting to take place after Canada's upcoming election, signaling a willingness to continue dialogue and potentially resolve their differences. The call was characterized as constructive by both sides, with Trump stating they "agree on many things." This development comes at a crucial time as the two neighboring allies and major trading partners seek to navigate their economic relationship amidst rising trade tensions.
US VP Vance's Greenland Visit Underscores Arctic Security Concerns
Vice President JD Vance visits Greenland amid growing US interest in Arctic security. Trump advocates for US control of Greenland, citing concerns over Russian and Chinese presence. The visit highlights strategic importance of the region for shipping, energy, and monitoring adversaries, with implications for US national security.
Trump Seeks Supreme Court Backing for Venezuelan Deportations
Trump's administration seeks Supreme Court approval to reinstate deportations of Venezuelan migrants under wartime law, bypassing hearings. This move aims to resume a controversial policy targeting alleged gang members.
Trump Pardons Nikola Founder Trevor Milton in High-Profile Fraud Case
Trevor Milton, founder of Nikola, received a full pardon from President Trump for securities fraud charges. Milton had been convicted for misleading investors about his zero-emissions truck company. The pardon was announced on social media.
Greenland Forms Coalition Government, Balancing Independence Aspirations and External Pressures
Greenland has formed a broad coalition government amid external pressures, particularly from the United States. The new government, led by Jens-Frederik Nielsen of the Greenland Democrats, emphasizes the need for stability and unity while carefully navigating the path towards independence. They plan to initiate talks with Denmark about future relations, stating that the status quo is not an option. This development comes as U.S. Vice President JD Vance prepares to visit Greenland, reflecting renewed American interest in the region. The formation of the government and its stance on independence discussions highlight Greenland's delicate position in international politics, especially in light of previous U.S. interest under the Trump administration.
Putin Probes Trump's Stance on EU Sanctions, Testing US-Europe Dynamics
Putin reportedly tests Trump's resolve to pressure EU on easing sanctions. Kremlin's strategy aims to gauge Trump's willingness to push Europe, with Russia demanding concessions. This move could impact US-EU relations and sanctions policy.
Law Firm Sues U.S. Government Over Trump-Era Sanctions
Jenner & Block, a prominent law firm, has filed a lawsuit against the U.S. government to challenge White House sanctions imposed on them for opposing Trump administration policies. The lawsuit aims to block an executive order targeting the firm.
Court Grants Trump Power to Remove Labor Agency Heads, Reshaping Federal Landscape
A divided federal appeals court in Washington ruled that President Trump can fire members of two independent labor agencies, overturning lower court decisions. This decision strengthens Trump's ability to reshape the US government and impacts the leadership of federal labor boards.
Federal Judge Blocks Trump's Bid to Dissolve CFPB, Mixed Rulings on Agency Control
A federal judge has halted the Trump administration's efforts to dismantle the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). While a divided appeals court ruled Trump can fire members of independent agencies, the CFPB remains protected. This decision impacts the president's attempts to reshape U.S. government agencies.
Canadian PM Carney: No Tariff Guarantees from Trump, Future Trade Talks Uncertain
Canadian PM Carney revealed that in a cordial call with President Trump, no guarantees were given regarding the removal of tariffs on autos, steel, and aluminum. Carney noted Trump's respect for Canadian sovereignty but expressed uncertainty about future trade talks between the US, Canada, and Mexico. He also suggested that Trump's policies could potentially increase US inflation and slow economic growth.
Trump Administration Prioritizes Arctic Security, Citing Strategic Importance
National Security Adviser Waltz emphasizes Trump's serious commitment to Arctic security, highlighting its importance for shipping, energy resources, and monitoring adversaries. The Arctic's strategic significance is underscored, with implications for U.S. national security and global influence.
Judge Extends Block on Trump's Wartime Deportation Strategy, Legal Battle Escalates
A federal judge has extended a temporary block on the Trump administration's attempt to use a wartime law for expedited deportations of alleged Venezuelan gang members. The case has reached the Supreme Court as Trump challenges the ruling and seeks to limit federal union rights.
Trump Team Mulls Tax Hike for Rich, Surprising Policy Shift
The Trump administration is reportedly considering a shift in tax policy, potentially allowing higher taxes on wealthy Americans. This unexpected move could mark a significant change in the administration's approach to tax reform.
Trump Secures $100M Pro Bono Deal with Skadden Arps
Former President Trump announces a $100 million pro bono legal services agreement with Skadden, Arps law firm, avoiding the need for an executive order.
Trump to Welcome El Salvador's Bukele: Talks on Gang Deportation Success
President Trump will host El Salvador's President Bukele at the White House in April. This meeting follows Bukele's agreement to imprison hundreds of alleged Venezuelan gang members deported from the US, showcasing a collaborative approach to regional security issues.
China's 2024 Economic Balance: Surplus in Current Account, Deficit in Capital
China's FX regulator reports a 2024 current account surplus of $423.9B, with a capital and financial account deficit of $434B. The Jan-Feb services trade deficit was $39.1B, with February's deficit at $16.4B.
China Warns of Rocket Debris Danger in South China Sea
China's Maritime Authority issues warning about falling rocket debris in the South China Sea, alerting vessels to potential hazards in the area.
Tensions Escalate: Iran Threatens U.S., Israel Strikes Lebanon
Iran threatens to strike U.S. bases if attacked, while Israel conducts air strikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. Lebanon's PM orders arrests for rocket launches at Israel, and Israeli military warns of hitting a Hezbollah building in Beirut.
Fixed Income And Interest Rates Events
Global Bonds Rally Amid Mixed Inflation Data, U.S. Stocks Stumble as Market Uncertainty Persists
Global bonds rallied as European consumer price data came in softer than expected, signaling potential easing of inflationary pressures. However, the U.S. stock market faced headwinds as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge came in hotter than anticipated. This conflicting data has created uncertainty in the markets, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all opening lower. The bond market is also experiencing challenges, with a deal slump hitting U.S. high-grade bond supply and pressuring spreads. Investors are closely watching the impact of tariffs on the economy and bond prices, as Fed officials remain split on their outlook. Despite the volatility, some experts suggest this is still a mid-cycle slowdown rather than a cause for panic. Traders are advised to remain cautious and avoid emotional decision-making in this uncertain environment. Meanwhile, specific sectors and companies are garnering attention, including Apple's TV+ venture and potential stock picks from Goldman Sachs. As markets continue to fluctuate, investors are seeking strategic approaches to navigate the current economic landscape.
Bond Giants Seize Opportunity Amid Market Volatility and Shifting Investment Trends
Recent market volatility has created opportunities in the bond market. Pimco, AllianceBernstein, and TCW capitalized on this by purchasing risky corporate bonds sold off by multistrategy hedge funds. Meanwhile, EPFR data shows significant inflows into gold, TIPS, Europe, India, and tech sectors, with outflows from US equities and real estate.
Economic Worries Drive Stock Slide and Treasury Rally as Quarter-End Approaches
Stocks are falling while Treasury bonds rally as economic concerns mount. Investors focus on the April 2 tariff deadline and quarter-end, driving yields lower. YieldMax introduces NFLY amid market volatility.
Environment Events
Massive 7.7 Magnitude Earthquake Rocks Myanmar, Tremors Felt Across Southeast Asia
A powerful earthquake of magnitude 7.2-7.7 struck central Myanmar, causing panic and shaking buildings as far as Bangkok, Thailand. The tremors were felt in parts of Vietnam as well, highlighting the quake's widespread impact across Southeast Asia.
Myanmar Earthquake Claims 144 Lives, Sparks Urgent Aid Appeal Amid Crisis
A powerful earthquake struck Myanmar on Friday, resulting in at least 144 deaths and over 700 injuries, according to state media. The shadow government has appealed for urgent international aid amidst ongoing conflict and chaos in the country.
Crypto Events
Trump Pardons BitMEX Co-Founders, Overturning Crypto Exchange's Legal Troubles
President Donald Trump has granted pardons to Arthur Hayes, Benjamin Delo, and Samuel Reed, the three co-founders of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX. The trio had previously pleaded guilty to federal criminal charges related to money laundering. BitMEX had faced regulatory scrutiny and paid a $100 million fine for inadequate anti-money laundering controls.
FDIC Greenlights Banks' Crypto Activities Without Prior Approval, Signaling Regulatory Shift
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has issued new guidance clarifying the process for banks to engage in crypto-related activities. FDIC-supervised institutions can now participate in permissible crypto activities without obtaining prior FDIC approval. This marks a significant shift in regulatory stance, potentially boosting institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies. The FDIC will continue to engage with the President's Working Group on Digital Assets. This development is seen as a major win for the crypto industry, potentially paving the way for increased integration of digital assets in traditional banking.
Bitcoin Tumbles Below $85K as Inflation Data Sparks Market Jitters, Dividing Analyst Opinions
Bitcoin's price has taken a hit, dropping below $85,000 amid several market pressures. A hot inflation report showing Core PCE rising 0.4%, higher than expected, spooked investors and led to a sell-off. The cryptocurrency's value slumped to around $83,920, with trading volume jumping 17% as long positions were liquidated. This downturn comes despite Bitcoin recently hitting a record high in computing power at 862 EH/s. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has warned of a potential crash, while Michael Saylor maintains an optimistic long-term outlook, predicting a $500 trillion market cap. The price drop is occurring in tandem with sliding stocks and uncertainty about the Fed's rate cut plans. Analysts are divided on whether this is a buying opportunity or the start of a deeper correction.
Oil And Gas Events
Elliott Management Bets Against Shell, Backs BP in Oil Sector Shake-Up
Elliott Management takes a significant short position in Shell while simultaneously pushing for changes at rival BP, signaling strategic moves in the oil industry.
India Mulls Scrapping LNG Import Tax to Enhance US Energy Trade
India is considering eliminating the 2.5% import tax on U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) to boost energy trade and reduce its trade surplus with Washington. This move could increase LNG purchases from the United States.
EU Debates Gas Storage Flexibility as US LNG Faces Methane Hurdles
European nations push for flexible gas storage targets, while US LNG exporters face potential methane-related challenges in the European market.
US Oil Rig Count Dips as Baker Hughes Reports Weekly Decline
Baker Hughes reports a decrease in US oil rig count to 484, down from 486 previously. The total rig count also dropped to 592 from 593, while gas rigs increased by one to 103.
Healthcare Events
EU Rejects Eli Lilly's Alzheimer's Drug Kisunla Over Safety Concerns
Eli Lilly's Alzheimer's drug Kisunla failed to secure EU approval due to concerns about potentially fatal brain bleeding. European regulators determined the drug's benefits didn't outweigh the risks for early-stage Alzheimer's patients.
Sanofi's Innovative Hemophilia Drug Qfitlia Receives FDA Approval
FDA approves Sanofi's Qfitlia, a new, easier-to-use treatment for hemophilia A and B, offering hope for patients with bleeding disorders.
RFK Jr. Launches Crusade to Remove Soda from Food Stamp Programs, Shaking Up Beverage Industry
Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is spearheading a nationwide effort to ban soda purchases with food stamps, starting with West Virginia. This initiative, part of his "Make America Healthy Again" agenda, aims to prevent taxpayer dollars from funding unhealthy products. The move could negatively impact major soda companies like Coca-Cola and PepsiCo.
Technology Events
AI Landscape Shifts: Investors Eye New Chip Stocks as Nvidia Falters and Industry Dynamics Evolve
Nvidia and Broadcom stocks are declining, prompting investors to seek alternative chip stocks for AI investments. Tesla's AI claims are questioned, while CoreWeave dismisses AI bubble fears. The Fed acknowledges AI's potential economic impact. GitLab leverages AI for DevSecOps growth. Antitrust concerns loom over BigTech's FinTech ambitions. LogicMark integrates AI for personal safety innovation. Nvidia faces challenges affecting its stock price.
SoftBank's $1 Trillion AI Vision: Robotic Industrial Parks to Revolutionize US Manufacturing
SoftBank is reportedly planning a massive $1 trillion investment to create AI-powered industrial parks across the US. The initiative, led by Masayoshi Son, aims to address labor shortages with autonomous robot-run factories. SoftBank may soon discuss this ambitious plan with US officials, building on their earlier 'Stargate' AI infrastructure project.
EU to Fine Apple and Meta: New Tech Rules Bring Modest Penalties
Apple and Meta face impending fines from the EU under new digital competition rules. The penalties, expected to be modest, are set to be issued next week as part of the EU's Big Tech regulatory efforts.
Legal Events
SEC Partners with DOGE Task Force to Boost Regulatory Efficiency
The SEC is initiating the onboarding of Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) officials, as revealed in a staff email. This move suggests a new partnership aimed at enhancing oversight and operational efficiency. DOGE officials will be granted system access and treated as SEC staff, indicating a significant collaboration that could reshape regulatory processes and enforcement strategies.
CFTC Retracts Guidance on Digital Asset Risk Assessment
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has withdrawn its advisory on reviewing risks associated with clearing and trading digital assets, including cryptocurrencies and their derivatives.
FCC Investigates Disney and ABC's DEI Practices for Possible Rule Violations
The FCC has launched an investigation into Disney and ABC's diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) practices, examining potential employment rule violations. This probe targets the media giants' diversity initiatives.
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