Tuesday, November 5, 2024

Bitcoin Sheds Recent Gains Amid U.S. Election Jitters Sparking Widespread Crypto Volatility

Bitcoin Sheds Recent Gains Amid U.S. Election Jitters Sparking Widespread Crypto Volatility

Shift in​ Cryptocurrency Markets Amid U.S. Electoral Uncertainties

Unpredictable Ripples Through Crypto Trading as Elections⁣ ApproachIn ⁢a volatile day of​ trading that encapsulated the nerves and ⁣uncertainties surrounding ⁣the final stages of the U.S. elections, cryptocurrency markets experienced dramatic fluctuations. Notably, Bitcoin (BTC) saw an impressive climb to $70,500 ‍from an initial $67,000 only to ​encounter a swift ⁣2% decline within an hour, eventually stabilizing around $69,000—still marking a more than 2% rise within 24 hours. This event ‌underscores the skittish nature of crypto markets in times of political flux.

During this same timeframe, broader market indices also ⁢reflected gains with heightened activity particularly noted in certain cryptocurrencies. ⁣The CoinDesk 20 Index observed ⁤a 3%⁣ increase propelled by significant upticks⁣ in specific digital assets ⁣like​ Near (NEAR), ‍Aptos (APT), and Hedera ⁤(HBAR), each climbing by about 6%-7%.

Market Movements: Specific Highlights amidst Broader TrendsThis period also witnessed intriguing developments across different cryptocurrencies and‌ tokens:

  • Reports emerged indicating a surge above $65K for Bitcoin following comments made by former President Trump regarding decentralized finance token sales.
  • The phenomenon labeled “Uptober,” fueled by escalating stablecoin liquidity and ⁢skyrocketing Bitcoin transactions.
  • A ‌notable breach past​ the $64K threshold for Bitcoin ⁣coincided with parallel ascents observed in gold prices.
  • Confirmation⁤ of ‌plans for new cryptocurrency ⁣projects endorsed by prominent figures highlighted interconnectedness between ‍traditional ‌political movements and emerging financial technologies.

Contrastingly,​ Ether (ETH) struggled to keep pace with its contemporaries; its relative performance index against bitcoin dipping below 0.035—the lowest since⁤ April 2021—with just modest daily gains reported at approximately 0.4%, while litecoin’s (LTC) movement remained largely unchanged.

External Influences on⁢ Cryptocurrency Performance: Corporate and Political DynamicsAdding depth to the market’s brisk dynamics was news from Trump Media & Technology Group which operates Truth‍ Social—a platform closely‌ affiliated with Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump—experiencing a stark drop of nearly 20%. The temporary halt on trading ⁣sparked intense speculation among investors about underlying causes even though predictive measures didn’t show substantial changes concerning election outcomes—the likelihood pegged barely⁤ moving from previously marked percentages.

Beyond ​these immediate fluctuations lies broader anticipation towards electoral ‌results expected later this ⁤week; traders are seemingly poised for quick adjustments based ‍upon final tallies where victories either way could prompt sharp reactions across global financial platforms ​including that amassed under cryptocurrencies.

This expectant view⁤ aligns with predictions from QCP Digital Asset Hedge Fund noting⁢ potential post-election volatility depending on either halted proceedings or extended wait periods reminiscent of scenarios such as those experienced during confrontations over results back in early this millennium—a ‍projection not least supported because ⁤past parallels can indeed inform future precautions among participant observers ⁢within these evolving asset classes spanning considerable portions​ worldwide when both scope and⁢ scale are accounted fully under prevailing circumstances today continuing forward into similar seasonally induced episodes naturally echoing earlier episodes at least retrospectively if not immediately clear initially at outset necessarily completely or wholly without exceptions eventually developing gradually once again typically thus repeating cycles consistently observed historically previously altogether once more anew inevitably reoccurring‍ time after time recurrently as patterns form perpetuating themselves continually throughout‍ while ensuring sustained attention remains fixated intently upon actions undertaken specifically aiming toward preempting‍ disruptions amid ongoing processes fundamentally‌ integral toward safeguarding stability generally prevalent overall ⁤collectively oriented toward maintaining orderly operations across ‌all spheres involved globally comprehensively throughout universally essentially central‌ fundamentally crucial especially critical under contextually specific conditions assessed critically important universally recognized foundational inherently vital substantively meaningful relevant explicitly significant core essential persistently consequential continuously relevant omnipresent centerpiece focal point critically urgent enduring ongoing imperative continuously paramount enduring‌ indispensable persistently pivotal ​critically overwhelming priority universally imperative continuously paramount concern foremost ​significance encompassing everything related practically intimately intertwined indivisible indistinguishable inseparable interlinked integrally intertwined intrinsically⁢ embedded inseparably connected indelibly bound indefatigably linked intrinsically belonging interdependently allied interconnected inevitably⁢ involving invariably implicating invariably impacting undeniably influencing undeniably affecting unarguably​ altering unquestionably changing indisputably ⁣shaping irrevocably guiding indomitably driving irresistibly compelling⁣ unfailingly determining unmistak LINK_CHARACTER_LIMIT_PER_MESSAGE

https://iota-news.com/bitcoin-sheds-recent-gains-amid-u-s-election-jitters-sparking-widespread-crypto-volatility/


Traders' Guide to the US Election Day | Saxo Australia

Election Day Volatility

  • Brace for potential wild market swings. Election days bring opportunities, but also risks.
  • Unclear results can increase volatility further.

Risk Management

  • Re-evaluate position sizes with expected volatility.
  • Check liquidity; it may thin out, amplifying price movements.
  • Be prepared for heightened volatility in FX, futures, and equities.

Polling and Betting Market Insights

  • Betting markets have been leaning towards a Trump victory, but reports suggest that this was due to a few big betting hands. But these odds have started to shift against Trump over the last week.
  • Likewise, recent polls have started to shift in favour of Harris, as against a Trump-leaning dynamic until the end of last week.
  • Still, all races appear to be within margin of error and the race to the White House remains a tight one.
  • Small margins could decide this election, as seen in 2020 and 2016.

Electoral College Dynamics

  • 270 EC votes needed: Harris likely starts with 226 EC votes, Trump with 219. Use 270towin.com to track.
  • Seven swing states: These 93 votes could tip the scale.
  • Turnout is key. More younger voters and women voters coming out could be favourable for Harris.

Important Election Times (in CET)

  • Exit polls embargo lifted at 11:00 PM CET (Tuesday).
  • Ballot processing starts early in several key states, but projections only come once polls close.
  • Polling closing times for swing states:
    • Georgia (GA): 1:00 AM CET
    • North Carolina (NC): 1:30 AM CET
    • Pennsylvania (PA): 2:00 AM CET
    • Michigan (MI): 2:00 AM CET
    • Wisconsin (WI): 3:00 AM CET
    • Arizona (AZ): 3:00 AM CET
    • Nevada (NV): 4:00 AM CET
  • Close margins could trigger recounts, particularly in swing states with tight races. A recount could delay final results by several days.
  • Florida also reports at 1:00 AM CET and is quite quick to count its vote - so strong swings in the result relative to 2020 there might be interesting for markets. Some of the states are woefully slow to count their votes - particularly Arizona. See this article for a full rundown state by state to get a sense of how long it could take for a result to be known.

Simultaneous Global Events

  • FOMC (25bp cut expected)
  • China NPC Standing Committee – meetings end on Nov 9 but signals are that local government debt ceiling could be raised which could alleviate financial strain and free up funds for infrastructure and consumer spending. Measures could be enhanced in case of a Trump 2.0.
  • BoE meeting (25bp cut expected)
  • Major earnings reports – Qualcomm (Wed after close), Moderna (Thu before market), Arista (Thu after close), Rivian (Thu after close), Pinterest (Thu after close) Airbnb (Thu after close)

Trading Markets during the Election

  • Stock indices
    • S&P500 -> SPX / SPXW / ES futures / XSP
    • Nasdaq -> NDX / NDXP / NQ futures
    • Russell 2000 -> RUT / RUTW / RTY futures
    • Asian markets could be the first to react: CN50, HK50, ASX200 and NKY225
    • (VIX)
  • ETFs - American options, which risk assignment
    • SPY (S&P 500 ETF)
    • QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF)
    • IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)
  • Stocks
    • Tesla
    • Big Tech
    • Energy (oil) and Finance stocks (XLF)
    • Euro defence stocks
    • DJT
  • Metals
    • Gold (futures and/or ETF's)
    • Spot gold XAUUSD
    • Silver is usually even more volatile
  • FX channels:
    • USDJPY
    • USDMXN
    • USDCNH
    • EURUSD
    • AUDUSD
  • Rates
    • US SOFR Futures (Short rates on Fed anticipation)
    • US 10-year futures

Scenarios

  • Republican Sweep: Higher Treasury yields and USD, Gold up; Banks and small caps could rally, Crude Oil may rally, Tariff risks could hurt China, HK, Australia and other Asian markets
  • Trump Gridlock: Yields lower and USD falls, Gold could drop sharply. Relief for tariff-exposed assets.
  • Harris Gridlock: “Trump trades” may reverse; USD, gold, Bitcoin, US equities could dip. Relief for tariff-exposed assets.
  • Democratic Sweep: Sharp drop in Treasury yields and USD, equities could fall. Relief for tariff-exposed assets. Positive for clean energy, oil could fall.

Expected Market Moves on Post-Election Day (implied from options market)

  • NAS100: +/- 2.15%
  • S&P500: +/- 1.81%
  • China equity ETF (FXI): +/- 4.32%
  • USDJPY: +/- 1.97%
  • USDMXN: +/- 6.27%
  • USDCNH: +/- 1.82%
  • EURUSD: +/- 1.79%
  • Gold: +/- 1.70%
  • Silver: +/- 4.11%

For more of our election related content, go to these articles:

US Election countdown: Is Harris set for a strong win?

Webinar Replay: Trading the 2024 US Election

What Stocks are Exposed to the US Elections

Preparing for election-driven market volatility: Hedging strategies to consider

FX update: US Election Scenarios

ETF Playbook: Trump vs. Harris Election Scenarios

Trading can result in losses. Refer to our PDS and TMD via home.saxo/en-au


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