[Altcoin Discussion] - April 2024

Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

• Discussion related to recent events
• Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
• General questions about altcoins

Thread guidelines:

• Be excellent to each other.
• All regular rules for this subreddit apply, except for number 2. This, and only this, thread is exempt from the requirement that all discussion must relate to bitcoin trading.
• This is for high quality discussion of altcoins. All shilling or obvious pumping/dumping behavior will result in an immediate one day ban. This is your only warning.
• No discussion about specific ICOs. Established coins only.

If you're not sure what kind of discussion belongs in this thread, here are some example posts. News, TA, and sentiment analysis are great, too.

⚡Tip Fellow Redditors over the Lightning Network⚡

• Send sats as tips using lntipbot to show appreciation for good content.
• Instructions and more information.

Other ways to interact:

• Get an invite to live chat on our Slack group and check out the #altcoins channel
• Daily Discussion for bitcoin only: Daily Discussion
• Prior Altcoin Discussion: Altcoin Discussion

Meme Coin Speculative Wave

Prominent cryptocurrency trader KALEO predicts that Dogecoin (DOGE) reaching a dollar in value is more than just speculation; it is a tangible possibility in the current market cycle. Recent data from IntoTheBlock reveals the high price correlation between Dogecoin and Bitcoin, highlighting the significant influence of broader cryptocurrency trends on Dogecoin’s market movements. With the recent surge in interest and transactions exceeding $100K totaling $4.46 billion over the past week, meme coin investors are eagerly watching Dogecoin’s trajectory.

​

Key Takeaways:

• KALEO predicts a possible dollar valuation for Dogecoin in the current market cycle.
• Recent data from IntoTheBlock shows a high price correlation between Dogecoin and Bitcoin.
• Dogecoin’s transactions have exceeded $100K, totaling $4.46 billion over the past week.
• Investors are closely monitoring Dogecoin’s market movements amidst renewed interest in meme coins.
• IntoTheBlock provides valuable insights and analysis into cryptocurrency trends and market sentiment analysis.

​

Dogecoin’s Volatile Journey and Current Market Data

Dogecoin’s trajectory soared in early 2021, largely fueled by endorsements from high-profile celebrities and business magnates, including Elon Musk. The meme coin approached the $1 mark, riding the wave of social media buzz and investor optimism. However, its ascent was abruptly halted, and it experienced a significant downturn following Musk’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live,” where he jokingly referred to Dogecoin as a “hustle.” This event triggered a sharp decline in its value, and Dogecoin is yet to reclaim its 2021 peak.

​

According to IntoTheBlock data, the meme coin has witnessed substantial transactions exceeding $100K, totaling $4.46 billion over the past week. Additionally, 57.62% of Dogecoin addresses are “In the Money” (holding coins at a profit), while 34.15% are “Out of the Money” (holding coins at a loss).

​

In order to get a better understanding of Dogecoin’s market movements, it is important to analyze and interpret the data. Let’s take a closer look at the statistics:

Statistic Value

Total Transactions $4.46 billion

% of Addresses “In the Money” 57.62%

% of Addresses “Out of the Money” 34.15%

This data provides valuable insights into the current market dynamics surrounding Dogecoin. Despite its volatile journey, high-profile endorsements and market movements continue to shape the meme coin’s trajectory. It is crucial for investors to closely monitor these factors and make informed decisions based on comprehensive analysis.

Dogecoin's Volatile Journey

Dogecoin’s Unstoppable Rally and Resistance Levels

Dogecoin (DOGE) has been on an incredible rally, experiencing a surging price with a 130% increase in just eight days. This explosive movement within the meme coin sector has exceeded expectations and shattered resistance levels.

IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) indicator provides valuable insights into the next resistance hurdles for DOGE. The table below outlines the resistance levels that Dogecoin has successfully conquered:

Resistance Levels

$0.178

$0.671

An astonishing 11 billion DOGE were acquired by 720,000 addresses at an average price of $0.331. This significant accumulation at a critical price level highlights the potential for selling pressure in the market.

​

While the rally is impressive, seasoned investors in the meme coin sector remain cautious. The volatile nature of meme coins like Dogecoin requires a careful approach. Employing strategies such as dollar-cost averaging can help mitigate risks and navigate the unpredictable market dynamics.

Looking ahead, the next key support level for Dogecoin is anticipated at $0.116. This support level is crucial in determining whether the coin can maintain its upward trajectory or face a potential downturn.

Dogecoin’s Next Frontier and Analyst’s Perspective

Amidst the frenetic trading environment, market analyst Captain Faibik highlights Dogecoin’s trajectory in the volatile landscape of meme coins. Since breaking above a pivotal triangle pattern, Dogecoin has shown impressive growth, with a 150% increase in value. Captain Faibik posits an ambitious target for Dogecoin’s new all-time high (ATH) at $0.8, driven by the bullish sentiment surrounding the meme coin phenomenon.

However, caution is advised as meme coins navigate through a highly unpredictable market. Rapid shifts in sentiment and market dynamics can impact the trajectory of Dogecoin and other meme coins. It’s essential for investors to approach this volatile landscape responsibly and diligently conduct their own research.

“The meme coin phenomenon continues to ride high on waves of optimism and speculative trading. To navigate this volatile landscape, prudent investors are encouraged to consider employing strategies like dollar-cost averaging and keeping an eye on key support levels,” says Captain Faibik.

As a meme coin, Dogecoin exemplifies the unpredictable nature of the cryptocurrency market. However, its trajectory and new all-time high aspirations underscore the resilience and potential for growth within this phenomenon. The volatile landscape of meme coins is a testament to the power of social sentiment and community-driven investments.

Prudent Strategies and Support Levels

Investors are advised to exercise caution and adopt prudent strategies while engaging with meme coins like Dogecoin. Dollar-cost averaging, a strategy that involves steadily purchasing an asset at regular intervals, can help mitigate the risks associated with volatile market movements. Additionally, tracking key support levels is crucial to identifying potential buying opportunities and managing exposure to market downturns.

By staying informed, conducting thorough research, and carefully considering the volatile landscape, investors can capitalize on the bullish sentiment surrounding meme coins like Dogecoin. However, it’s essential to approach these investments with a comprehensive understanding of the risks involved and to make informed decisions based on one’s financial goals and risk tolerance.

Dogecoin's volatility in the market

When it comes to investing in meme coins like Dogecoin, it’s crucial to recognize the speculative nature of these assets and understand the dynamics of the market. IntoTheBlock’s comprehensive data and insightful analysis offer valuable cryptocurrency trends, market sentiment analysis, and blockchain analytics insights to assist investors in making informed decisions. However, it’s essential for readers to conduct their independent research and consult with financial advisors before venturing into these volatile investments.

​

The cryptocurrency market is known for its dynamic nature, characterized by rapid changes and unpredictable shifts. To navigate this landscape successfully, investors should prioritize staying informed and adopting data-driven investment strategies. By keeping up-to-date with the latest market insights and trends, investors can identify potential opportunities while effectively managing risks in the decentralized finance arena.

​

Therefore, cautious and well-informed decision-making, supported by thorough research and expert advice, is key when considering investments in financial instruments like meme coins. Adopting a responsible approach and staying vigilant will help investors maximize the potential benefits of the ever-evolving cryptocurrency market.

COMING UP: PH: CLI FOO ends; PH: March inflation data; INT'L: Crypto shenanigans; SM buys 29% stake in CREIT for P5-B; Cebu Pacific FY23 profit: P7.9-B (up 156%); Jollibee buys 10% stake in Botrista for $28-M (Monday, April 1)

Happy Monday, Barkada --

The PSE gained 5 points to 6904 ▲0.1%

I have always kicked around the idea of doing a fun April Fools' Day episode where I glowingly shill Davao Dennis' PSE shitcoins, or where I breathlessly cover some obvious paid-for story by a starlet with some provocative title like "Marian Rivera appreciates time at home with her Dingdong", but I can never pull the trigger.

It always makes me feel very uncomfortable to deliver anything to your inbox that I don't stand behind 100%. I don't want to muddy the waters and give you even a second of confusion about what you're reading, even if I'm able to squeeze a chuckle out of it.

So, here's to a sober April Fools' Day post, and a wonderful start to Q2!

▌In today's MB:

• COMING UP: The week ahead
  • PH: CLI FOO ends
  • PH: March inflation data
  • INT'L: Crypto shenanigans
• SM buys 29% stake in CREIT for P5-B
• Cebu Pacific FY23 profit: P7.9-B (up 156%)
• Jollibee buys 10% stake in Botrista for $28-M

▌Daily meme | Subscribe (it's free) | Today's email

▌Main stories covered:

• [COMING_UP] Quick look at the week ahead... Domestically, Cebu Landmasters will wrap up its follow-on offering sale of preferred shares tomorrow (the listing is next week), and on Friday, we’ll get the inflation data for March from the Philippine Statistics Authority (which will set the table for the BSP’s decision on interest rates on Monday of next week). Internationally, it’s a relatively quiet period on the central bank front (rate decisions by Chile, Kenya, and Poland – not a big deal for us), and we won’t get very much in the way of inflation data in the US as the American consumer price index data won’t be available until Thursday of next week.

  • MB: You will have to forgive me if my eyes have been wandering a little bit into the crypto space. It’s hard to ignore Bitcoin’s run, and while these blooms aren’t rare, they aren’t even a yearly thing so when they come around I pay attention. The latest data shows that the next Bitcoin halving event is scheduled to happen on April 20. The biggest question in crypto: is the halving already priced in?

• [NEWS] SM Investments buys 28.79% stake in CREIT for ₱5-B... SM Investments [SM 972.00 ▼1.0%; 63% avgVol] spent ₱5 billion to purchase 1,884,374,000 shares of Citicore Energy REIT [CREIT 2.79 halted] from CREIT’s parent company, Citicore Renewable Energy Corporation (CREC), at a price of ₱2.6534/share. The shares were all secondary, meaning that the money that SM paid for the shares went to CREC (not CREIT), and the transaction was completed by way of a block sale. CREIT shares were voluntarily halted to “give the investing public sufficient time to consider or assess the impact of the execution of the block sale before transacting CREIT shares.” In the associated press release, CREC referred to its relationship with SM as a “partnership” that “unlocks potential synergies given the energy requirements of the SM group”. CREC is still CREIT’s single largest shareholder at 32.88%.

  • MB: While the price SM paid is at a ~5% discount to CREIT’s current market price, it’s in line with CREIT’s Q1 average price and oddly similar to where CREIT traded during that weird flash crash on March 19, the day before the Biz Buzz article broke the news an unnamed “blue chip conglomerate” was looking to buy a significant stake in CREIT. There was no talk in the press releases of SM getting representation on CREIT’s board, but I’d expect that kind of detail to come out once the deal is formalized.

• [EARNINGS] Cebu Pacific FY23 profit: ₱7.9-B (up 156%)... Cebu Pacific [CEB 32.00 ▲3.2%; 195% avgVol], the Gokongwei Family’s budget airline, reported a FY23 net income of ₱7.9 billion, up 156% from its FY22 net loss of ₱14.0 billion. Revenues were up 57% to ₱85.1 billion, with the passenger segment up 78% to ₱62.5 billion and the ancillary revenue segment up 66% to ₱24.1 billion. Cargo segment revenues were down 42% to ₱4.1 billion. CEB reported flying 20.9 million passengers (up 41%) on 140,730 total flights (up 30%) in FY23, with a load factor of 84.0% (up from 75.3%). CEB’s average fare was ₱2,993, up 26.4% from FY22’s average fare of ₱2,367. Looking ahead to 2024, CEB said that a “return of the global aviation industry to normal growth patterns is expected”, with “international recovery” (mainland China and “traffic rebound”) a major focus for regional airlines in SE Asia. CEB said that it expects to announce the “single biggest aircraft order in the history of Philippine aviation” in the second quarter.

  • MB: This is the first year of profitability for CEB since COVID obliterated domestic and international air travel as we knew it. Globally, airlines are projected to generate record operating profits in FY24. Domestically, CEB’s metrics for FY23 were exceptional, and its prospects for an even stronger FY24 are basically certain. The company is poised to sign on the dotted line for the biggest plane buy deal in PH history. On paper everything is great, but there’s an issue beneath the surface that makes these boom times different from previous periods of hypergrowth in CEB’s life: plane scarcity. To put things in Cars terms, the pre-COVID growth of CEB was like Lightning McQueen’s journey through the Piston Cup in Cars 1: sleek rookie ripping through a field of aged race cars, marking the change in the game from legacy largess to upstart efficiency. Then, the global tragedy occurred: Cars 2, which we will not discuss here. Also COVID. Now, in its Cars 3 phase, CEB is back to its old tricks, pushing the limits of what its fleet can do, but it’s struggling to achieve growth without a little help from friends. There’s a plane shortage. Every airline in the world is growing. Like when McQueen supports his friend Cruz Ramirez to race on his behalf, CEB has had to basically rent planes from other airlines to satisfy its route commitments. Can you tell I have a toddler? The moral of this bad analogy is that Cars 2 should have never been made as a sequel to Cars 1, and CEB’s ability to sustain growth will come as a function of its ability to cobble together a ragtag team of homegrown and rented assets to bridge the gap between now and whenever it can get the first deliveries of its new set of planes.

• [NEWS] Jollibee buys 10% stake in Botrista for $28-M... Jollibee [JFC 252.60 ▼0.6%; 240% avgVol] disclosed that it purchased a 10% stake in Botrista, a “leader in the beverage technology space”, for $28 million through its subsidiary, Jollibee Worldwide Pte. Ltd. (JWPL). According to JFC’s press release, Botrista “holds more than 100 patents globally for its proprietary dispense technology” that allows an automated system to prepare and sell “cold specialty coffee and tea-based drinks”.

  • MB: The company’s tagline is “increase ticket size with craft beverages”, but this investment likely serves a dual purpose for JFC which is increasingly coffee- and beverage-focused. This isn’t a vending machine play. This is about putting a self-serve kiosk inside of an existing JFC branded location (Jollibee, Coffee Bean and Tea Leaf, Highlands Coffee, Milksha, Common Man, etc) and having consumers purchase and receive drinks directly from this machine without having to interface with a cashier, and without the location’s back-of-the-house staff needing to prepare the drink. So while it remains to be seen if ordering drinks from a robot will cause consumers to upsize and upsell themselves into spending more, at the very least you can bet that JFC is thinking of this as a way to cut operational costs and further streamline the on-premises dining experience. Not for the consumer, but for the company. It reduces the amount of preparation space needed for a location to serve specialty drinks, which increases the “potential paying customers per square meter” of each location. It reduces the number of touches needed to fulfill orders, which lowers headcount and increases profitability. Will customers like it? I get the feeling we’re about to find out.

MB is written and distributed every trading day. The newsletter is 100% free and I never upsell you to some "iNnEr cIrClE" of paid-membership perks. Everyone gets the same! Join the barkada by signing up for the newsletter, or follow me on Twitter. You can also read my daily Morning Halo-halo content on Philstar.com in the Stock Commentary section.

Subscribe here

Read today's full newsletter here