Successful Recovery of BTC from a HW.1 Ledger Wallet with Firmware 1.0.0 (seed lost!)

HW.1 ledger Wallet

TL;RD - Don’t lose your seed!

In spring 2015, our client went to an event at “La Maison du Bitcoin“ in Paris, where he met the president of a hardware startup called Btchip, that was presenting a revolutionary USB device called HW.1 Ledger Wallet, designed to secure Bitcoin private keys. He bought a HW.1 ledger, and took their offer to set it up with a BTC account loaded some Bitcoin, which, at the time, were about €200 per BTC. Then he just put it in a box and forgot about it.

Fast-forward to 2021: “La Maison du Bitcoin” merged with Btchip and a small exchange to form the Ledger Company, which designed and commercialized the very successful Ledger Nano S and Nano X.

And our client found his old HW.1 Ledger, with its unlocking PIN and its “security card” (a challenge-response system designed to generate a confirmation PIN when signing transactions, since the HW.1 device has no screen and no buttons). No trace of his 24-word recovery phrase... So the only option was to recover his Bitcoin by using the actual HW.1 Ledger device to sign a transaction.

The old Chrome extension that used to work with the HW.1 Ledger cannot be used anymore (and its back-end server has been discontinued), so Electrum looked like the only option. Electrum could unlock his HW.1, access his account, and see his BTC balance, which is good news, but unfortunately, Electrum always displayed an error when signing a transaction.

We agreed on our bounty (if the recovery was successful) and started working on it. We got lucky that our client is a very nice French-speaking IT guy (located in Montreal Quebec), familiar with Linux and comfortable with running virtual machines and editing script files.

To start, we modified the ledger plugin in Electrum to figure out what was causing the error in Electrum, and we found that the function of the Bitcoin app (firmware) on the device that was normally used to sign BTC transactions, was in fact not implemented on his HW.1.

The Electrum Ledger plugin relies on the ledger device supporting the so-called “alternate protocol”, via a function called “finalizeInputFull”. Unfortunately, this function was not implemented until Bitcoin firmware 1.0.2, and it turned out that we had firmware 1.0.0, which was supporting a different tx signature protocol, limited to tx with only one output address and one “change” address (and only BTC “legacy” addresses). For some reason, the code handling this old ledger firmware was removed from future version the Electrum ledger plugin (probably to simplify its maintenance when segwit was later added).

So from there, we had to figure out how to support the “old protocol” used by version 1.0.0, and to hack a very customized version of the ledger plugin that we hoped might be able to sign a correct transaction with his ledger.

We found that Electrum 2.2, which dated from about April 2015, had a plugin called btchipwallet.py that was implementing the “old protocol”. Unfortunately, even if we could rebuild a working Electrum 2.2, it would not have worked because Electrum completely changed the API they use for communicating with their backend servers, around their version 3.0. So this was not an option.

And using the old btchipwallet.py in the current Electrum was not an option either, for two reasons: Electrum is now running on python3, while the old plugin was written in python2, and more importantly, the API between Electrum and its plugins has completely changed.

So the only option was to try to understand what the old btchipwallet.py plugin was doing, and hack a completely custom plugin using pieces of the old ledger plugin code (modified and ported to python3), and to integrate them into the current ledger plugin to use the old protocol instead of the ”alternate protocol” to sign the tx.

We thought that our work would be simpler if we had access to a HW.1 device for testing. Fortunately a reddit user was nice enough to sell us their old HW.1 that was just taking dust, so we could test some of our code. Unfortunately this HW.1 turned out to have firmware version 1.0.4, which only implemented the “alternate protocol”, so we could not test all our code, but we could test about half of it. A few old python2 test scripts from the Github repository for the bitcoin app dating from April 2015 also helped us understand how the old protocol was working.

We did all the development and testing work on a Kali (Debian) Linux virtual machine, running in virtualbox on a Win10 system. About 5 or 6 times, we tested our new hacked electrum plugin with the client’s actual device, and the copious amount of traces in the terminal showed that we were making progress and helped moving forward. Overall the entire effort took a few weeks of work (and a few hours from our client), and would have been much harder if our client had not been an engineer familiar with Linux.

Finally, a couple of days ago, we shipped a Linux virtual image with our hacked Electrum plugin to our client, and while sharing a google-meet view of our client’s screen, we were able to successfully sign a valid transaction that transferred all his BTC to another account!

We were both really happy to finally see the Tx being confirmed on the BTC network!

Is there value in $EBON?

Hey all,

Does anyone see value in $EBON?

It was one of the biggest gainers last week, up 35%.

The financials are on par with a glamour (promise of rainbows & sunshine) growth company. But could there be more to $EBON?

ABOUT THE COMPANY:

$EBON (Ebang Intl Holdings) core business is crypto mining rigs (small plug n' play boxes that mine crypto-currency and as the company declares, consume less power than their counterparts), recently they announced that they were also moving into the exchange business (such as Coinsbase, Coinspot, etc) and sentiment appears positive in their space for them and their products.

CATALYST:

With the currently Crypto goldrush, this company is essentially selling shovels to miners.

BTC (and other crypros) are clearly gaining momentum, naturally many are divided on this space. Some see a lack of intangible value, whilst the bulls see Crypto as an integral part of our future.

Their recent announcement of moving into the Crypto exchange business was most likely the catalyst behind the 35% increase in price, the exchange business will add another (more lucrative) segment to their business.

CASE FOR $EBON:

Personally, last week, a number of banks in our region were down, the institutions didn't announce 'why', but many suspect it was linked to another attack by hackers (like Solarwinds, or the recent attack on Microsoft).

I wondered if we were on a currency (Bitcoin or similar) which implicitly has been designed to be secure against this type of manipulation, on a public blockchain, events such as this would not occur.

As public sentiment shifts in greater numbers (possibly driven by greed) to adopt Crypto, $EBON will only see their business strengthen, in sales of their products and growth in the exchange business.

CASE AGAINST $EBON:

Naturally, the powers that be (banks, govts.) are fearful of this type of store of value (and rightfully so), simply because they cannot create more by the push of a button. Hence, BTC (or another blockchain Crypto) are inconvenient and will tax resources (power, admin, tech) to obtain more 'value' when governments require it. Hence taking us back to a Gold standard (backed by a physical store of value such as Gold) and in the case of Bitcoin by proof of work.

The IOU's type of fiat currency, as many argue, works well. Governments can create as much (or little) store of value as they desire, back by their country's financial output (GDP). When they step out of equilibrium, the currency increases or decreases in value, which they can control through levers such as Q.E. (Quantitive Easing). These will not be as easily available on a BTC blockchain (digital store of value, obtained only by proof of work) .

Companies like $EBON are operating in a space that will only see headwind from institutions and governments globally.

Based on its declared financials, $EBON is overvalued and will see slow growth as Crypto currency may largely remain (or be exiled) to the fringes.

CONCLUSION:

$EBON, at least in the short-term, has the potential to see growth (increased sales) fuelled by the current Crypto goldrush & their move into the exchange business.

Let's organize a SILVER TREASURE HUNT event?? We hide some of spare SILVER coins globally around where we live. Give some hints, and make it into a GLOBAL TREASURE HUNTING event. Bitcoin cannot do this 😉

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Bitcoin4life

Earn Bitcoins while using your browser CryptoTab is the world's first browser with a built-in mining function. With CryptoTab you earn cryptocurrency just by visiting your favorite sites, watching videos, and chatting online.https://cryptotabbrowser.com/20954633

i just need Referrals guys help me out

SOS ANALYSIS MADE BY RETAIL INVESTOR FOR RETAIL INVESTORS

You can find this analysis in pdf file here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/p2vndwo7vk30quy/sos%20analysis%202021%20march.pdf?dl=0

SOS analysis 13th of March 2021

This is an analysis that intends to inform every single retail investor for important facts and data regarding SOS Limited stock. All this information based on doxing I have made regarding the company SOS Limited and all effective factors so far involved in the price move of its stock. I hope that summarizes many other information published in reddit and stocktwits last 1 month or so. In order to make it easier for all to verify the information laid here, I will refer also every single link that gives the proof of evidence. This is not a consultation for trading, it is a report from a retail investor who reads and searches very well the company he invested in so to be sure for the potential expected in the upcoming period.

SOS Limited activities

Although SOS Limited has been connected strongly with BTC, the company has a plenty of different activities:

· We provide a wide range of data mining and analysis services to our corporate and individual members, including providing marketing data, technology and solutions for insurance companies, emergency rescue services, and insurance product and health care information portal in China. Our mission is to make it easier, safer and more efficient for our clients to obtain and process the data of their target customers.

· We primarily address the large unmet demand for marketing-related data for clients such as insurance companies, financial institutions, medical institutions, healthcare providers and other service providers in the emergency rescue services industry by creating a SOS cloud emergency rescue service software as a service (SaaS) platform.

· Recently, we have launched our crypto mining business, and aim to start infrastructure services in blockchain security for our big data insurance marketing as well as provide insurance and banking services for digital assets and crypto currencies.

You can find this information here:

https://service.sosyun.com/sos_en/news_list_210309.html

MINING CRYPTO ACTIVITY

The most interesting for retail investor activity. SOS Limited achieved to buy 15,465 mining machines from a company which did not want to uncover identity. The buy of these rigs is already payed despite a small amount left just before arrival of the 3rd batch. This, because mining machines are in great luck last 6 months and some producers have signed exclusive sales to some bitcoin mining companies. All these machines are used already and seems to be the fastest solution to start mining cryptocoins.

From the total 15,465 rigs, the first batch of 5,000 rigs arrived on 9th of February and are already online mining. The second batch of 5,000 rigs arrived on 24th of February and are still under installation to work next few days. The third batch of 5,465 rigs will arrive on or about 15th of April 2021 and are going to be functional in early May.

It is vital to understand that SOS Limited is mining BOTH BTC and ETH, which is very good because ETH has a greater potential than even BTC according to crypto experts. First batch of miners are mining BTC, the second batch will be online for BTC and ETH mining and the 3rd batch is upon decision of the company what to do.

CURRENT RIGS AND FUTURE ACQUITION OF MINING RIGS

What kind of rigs has SOS Limited bought? According to the company in PR given here https://service.sosyun.com/sos_en/news_list_210309.html they bought Momentum T2T and A10 Pro models. Which models are these and which their specifications?

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https://preview.redd.it/0ylx7vy6vvm61.png?width=672&format=png&auto=webp&s=a5e264c6497089c83d92c2088c86a522b48d3af0

As we do not know exactly the number of each model in the lot bought, I have made a reverse calculation to check how many miners (dividing total Hashrate of each cryptocoin with each type rig’s Hashrate) have been in the published mining ability by SOS Limited:

BTC:541 Petahash/37 Terahash = 541000 Th/37 Th= 14,621 mining rigs

ETH:1082 Gigahash/500 Megahash = 1082000 Mh/500 Mh =2,164 mining rigs

If we add the numbers of BTC and ETH rigs, we have a total of 14621+2164= 16785

And the vital question is: Where are the rest of 16785-15465= 1320 rigs?

The answer is possibly in the specific comment of SOS Limited right here: “Some of the rigs include components which are similar to those contained in the HY-Momentum T2T and HY-A10 Pro, although they are not necessarily these particular branded models.”

That means, SOS Limited bought a lot of used machines, which have characteristics same or similar to these models and are going to give a TOTAL HASHRATE POWER of 541P for BTC and 1082G for ETH mining. Because this is the important thing: The acquired Hashrate of the lot of rigs and not the models. Why? Because they are used and maybe there are changes in the components like all we do in our personal computers; imagine that we are talking for machines working 24/365 which may had damages and needed the replacement of parts. This is not a fraud statement made by SOS Limited but a realistic view of an investor for a lot of used machines SOS bought because they could not find stock of BRAND NEW mining rigs in 2021.

We expect SOS Limited to announce cryptocoins mined and then we will see in practice if the announced ability of 541P for BTC and 1082G for ETH is real or not. But this can happen only after the installation of the last (3rd) batch which will arrive on 15th of April and will get functional early May 2021.

Will SOS Limited stop buying miners in 2021? I think will NOT (my opinion). There is a lack of miners because of the outstanding need globally but they will surely seek for new or used rigs as they have Chinese to negotiate and it is easier to make it happen (1) and also plenty of cash to give for these buys (2) which will be analyzed later in this report. Around 300 million of $ in cash today and they already payed 20 million $ for these 15,465 rigs (“The Company has already paid for all three batches, with a small holdback that will be paid upon delivery of the third batch.”).

On my opinion, I think that they can raise the number of their rigs to 100k as they do have the ABILITY to achieve it.

I do not expect SOS Limited to announce the search they do for mining rigs because all mining companies do their best to find machines. I believe that from time to time they will announce future purchases after they have sealed the deals only and possibly without publishing the identity of the sellers (for reasons I mentioned previously).

With these 15,465 rigs mining activity is going to be according to SOS Limited:

1st batch: 175P for BTC

2nd batch: 175P for BTC and 350G for ETH

3rd batch: 177P for BTC and 706G for ETH

According to precise mining profit calculators, giving the ability of 527P for BTC and 1056G for ETH giving:

BTC: 1.91 BTC/day, 58.10 BTC/month, 697 BTC/year, which equals with BTC price of 55,000$ => 697*55,000$= 20.77 million$ profit per year

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https://preview.redd.it/3dniniq4tvm61.png?width=501&format=png&auto=webp&s=64d87740bcdcaf501878bf1a0c701cc20254a502

ETH: 64.43 ETH/day, 1,933 ETH/month, 23,520 ETH/year, which equals with ETH price of 1,774$ => 40.96 million$ profit per year

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https://preview.redd.it/f2s69ua6tvm61.png?width=521&format=png&auto=webp&s=17b0da3c9ae4a5e3b5c6c679d379f0738633c812

BTC mining calculator: https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/mining/calculator/

ETH mining calculator : https://www.cryptocompare.com/mining/calculator/eth?HashingPower=1082&HashingUnit=GH%2Fs&PowerConsumption=1&CostPerkWh=&MiningPoolFee=1

TOTAL PROFIT FOR 2021 CRYPTO MINING

Assumptions for the calculation

1) BTC price for calculations = 55,000$ and ETH price for calculations = 1,773$

2) Total Hashrates for BTC and ETH were divided by the total number of rigs to have the average Hashrate of each rig. For BTC 527P/14238rigs and for ETH 1056G/1408rigs. This average hashrate was imported in calculations for every batch of rigs.

3) Energy consumption costs calculated having an average of 3100W for each BTC rig (consumption of T2-T model) and 1350W for each ETH rig (consumption of A-10 Pro+ model).

4) I have picked the later dates to get online 2nd batch and 3rd batch of rigs, expected dates I mention are upon the period needed for 1st batch to get online (14 days-9th Feb to 23rd Feb).

Calculation of Energy Cost for Mining

Energy for the mining activity is with Hydropower company Leibodong in Definite Agreement (renewable energy, environmentally friendly) with a cost between 0.22-0.38 RMB/Kwh. An average cost is 0.3RMB which is equal to 0.0461$/Kwh. This cost for energy gives to the mining activity, a total energy cost/year for BTC mining (estimated 14,621 rigs of 3.1KW) of 18.05 million$ and ETH mining (estimated 2,164 rigs of 0.95KW) of 0.83 million $.

Total profit of mining BTC and ETH (if crypto prices do NOT raise at all) will be yearly (ONLY having these 15,465 rigs installed) around 64,47 million$.

Break even point for BTC mining and ETH mining (the price of crypto where company has no profit and the cost of energy is equal to the value of mined crypto) is for BTC 25,223$ and for ETH 35$. Below these prices company has damage and above these prices SOS Limited has profit from mining.

PRICE OF SOS LIMITED AND ATTACKS IN RECENT PERIOD

Most of the retail investors are very unhappy with the price of the stock SOS Limited has. Since the peak of 17th of February 2021 (12.8$) the stock has declined with a minimum price of 4.77$ on 26th of February 2021. Let’s see the reasons analyzed and understand where we are and where we can go.

SOS Limited has made several Registered Direct Offerings for a huge amount of money in a very short period, guided of the peak of the stock even in 15.86$. Every company with common sense chooses a very good momentum for the price of stock to make offerings because in this specific period the shares will be absorbed more easily by the market. You can not avoid a small decrease of the price but usually, after a Direct Offering, stock flies high as it becomes stronger by increasing its market cap with new money from investors. Let’s see the list of Direct Offerings and Warrants’ Exercise made:

Direct Offerings and Warrants’ Exercise

SOS Limited got tons of cash in 2021. In 41 days (from 8th of January to 25th of February) SOS Limited got in total 317.7 million $:

8th of January 2021: 25 million $ in Registered Direct Offering https://service.sosyun.com/sos_en/news_list_210108.html

12th of February 2021: 110 million $ Registered Direct Offering

https://service.sosyun.com/sos_en/news_list_210212.html

18th of February 2021: 86 million $ Registered Direct Offering

https://service.sosyun.com/sos_en/news_list_210218.html

25th of February 2021: 96.7 million $ Exercise of Warrants

https://service.sosyun.com/sos_en/news_list_210225.html

CASH OF SOS LIMITED

This amount of cash is great for the size of SOS Limited and its market cap it has. Almost 40% of its current market cap is money in cash. Huge offerings in a short period of time produced a great cash ability for the company. Cash is a tool for several things: To buy more miners during 2021 (a), to establish earlier Crypto-Insurance Service and Crypto-bank, the first of its kind in planet (investment in new services-expansion of current services) (b) and to buy back shares in order to fight Short Funds (c).

For all the above reasons CASH is a MUST HAVE parameter. Without them, no development for the company. I have to add that SOS Limited has ZERO DEBT so it is not chased by Bank Institutions for loan payments. For every single retail investor, this “Zero Debt” feeling is very well known, how great it is.

HINDENBURG AND CULPER REPORTS

I will offer you a wide analysis for Hidenburg and Culper companies just because it does worth the reading for every single retail investor to see WHO said WHAT for SOS Limited and caused a great damage in stock’s price.

These 2 “companies” (I will explain the reason I put them into brackets) came in a very sensitive moment for SOS: BTC has made a correction from 57,425$ on 21st of February 2021 to 48,149$ on 25th of February giving a great decrease in the price of the stock. Additionally, on 25th February, SOS Limited had scheduled Exerrcise of Warrants with a value of 96.7 million$ (which was known to the owners of the Warrants => so Institutional Investors only). The stock was in the most sensitive (and lower) point just before starts to cover the height to a new All Time High price.

The day after, the “Reporting companies” came with plenty of Tweets in Twitter and PR to all the biggest websites for stock news (Yahoo, Prnewswire etc)…

PS: No big website ever searched Who is Hidenburg and Culper. They published without comment the PR. Have they been payed for this? Who payed them? It is important to know who promoted this Bad News Attack which is far away of “A bad tweet from a stock activist”…

HINDENBURG RESEARCH

On 26th of February 2021, Hindenburg Research made via their Twitter account attack to SOS Limited accusing the company as a Scam Company, with no rig farms, no HQ, no existence, having a PT of 0$.

They claimed that they sent a Chinese to HQ address and found nothing, the websites of possible partners/suppliers of SOS are fake and stolen from others etc etc. Many responses from retail investors have proven the false points in Hindenburg report. But before this, we have to see some important things:

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https://preview.redd.it/4u69915rtvm61.png?width=433&format=png&auto=webp&s=15df7deeaeafdd0365f3bc79880f2a16db354ae3

This was the initial statement of Hindenburg: “We are short $SOS”. It is a statement that has to do with a way to avoid some legal actions: When you state that you DO have a conflict of interest, then you have the motivation stated why your optical view is to PROVE that company is a SCAM. So, you are excused to use every single point in your report, to prove and if you are false, it was the optical view you had (I have put money in so my interpretation of data was emotional. In case of Hindenburg, they are not neutral, like so many analysts post “at the time of this post, Mr. X does not have any interest in this stock”.

The second point is the “legal disclaimer” they have, on their website, where they have NOT yet published the report for SOS (it is still in Twitter account as tweets…):

“However, all information contained herein is provided “as is” and Hindenburg Research, LLC (“Hindenburg”) expressly disclaims making any express or implied warranties with respect to the fitness of the information contained herein for any particular usage, its merchantability or its application or purpose.”

“In no event shall Hindenburg be responsible or liable for the correctness of any such material or for any damage or lost opportunities resulting from use of this data.”

“You should assume that as of the publication date of any report, post or communication referencing any publicly traded security, Hindenburg (possibly along with or through our members, partners, affiliates, employees, clients, investors, industry contacts and/or consultants) may have a position in the stock covered herein, and therefore stands to realize significant gains in the event that the price of stock moves.”

As you see, Hindenburg, does not guarantee that reports are ACCURATE and TRUE but puts a Legal Disclaimer because they know very well that many things of their reports are proved as FALSE in hours/days after publication. And they are used to NEVER express apologies for these FALSE statements.

Before going to “investigate” (very common verb used by Law Firms) the report, we have previously to check WHO is Hindenburg Research and what history and web say about them. We care of WHO said WHAT, we do not stay only in Reports.

Hindenburg Research is a website. As you can see in the link https://hindenburgresearch.com/ they do not have physical address, no phone number, no names of team. Just a contact form and an email. The only name mentioned in their website is the Founder “Nate Anderson” CFA, CAIA. I searched for this person and found that “Nate Anderson” is “Nathan Anderson” (why they have given nickname of “Nate” instead of formal “Nathan”?). According to his profile in LinkedIn, Nathan Anderson CFA, CAIA has as in Contact Info as company website, NOT the Hindenburg Research website BUT Clarity Springs website.

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Which is Clarity Spring?

I visited the website https://www.clarityspring.com and there is NO website. It is a dead link.

So, I decided to search further. In order to understand where Nathan works. And I found this:

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https://preview.redd.it/mobar52vtvm61.png?width=627&format=png&auto=webp&s=3b97a8f8b10345d0ba7e4a5c1133c5f7fefd4718

https://startup-map.berlin/companies/clarityspring

Clarity Spring started on 2015 to work, having founders 2 men, Dmitriy Yermolayev and Jeff Katz. NOT Nathan.

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I could not be happy and I searched further to find more information for this Clarity Springs company. And I visited Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/profile/company/1390771D:US where I found more information:

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https://preview.redd.it/kofb3ejxtvm61.png?width=670&format=png&auto=webp&s=c70ad5d3eb8a5af3248fcaf6b4aff5cf202d5b9b

So, Clarity Spring has been a BROKER company specializing in “buying and selling securities such as stocks etc”. Fine. There is also the physical address in NY and a phone number for this company (finally a regular contact information for the company). What made me unhappy was the number of employees: ZERO. And this triggered me further to search even deeper….

So I went to the next stop of my journey:

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https://preview.redd.it/ggt04x6ztvm61.png?width=430&format=png&auto=webp&s=3787ae8baa5a3b7ec5d61a7cb5c8fce7fcfdd014

https://pitchbook.com/profiles/company/83191-78#overview

And this “Out of Business” made me think that I should continue searching this to cross-check the TRUTH:

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https://preview.redd.it/n0yjh0j0uvm61.png?width=456&format=png&auto=webp&s=bfa9b035f916b06b1df8d62ccc44df6f74d5ee7a

https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/clarityspring-inc

We have to STOP here and check some things:

a) Nathan Anderson seems to be among the other 2 founders of Clarity Spring.

b) The company has the same phone number/address we found earlier in Bloomberg

c) The “out of business” status in pitchbook is evaluated here by giving Operating Status “Closed” and also Closed Date “Dec 2018”.

So Nathan Anderson is NOT any more in Clarity Springs but does not give any contact detail of Hindenburg Research (physical address, phone number) where he is a “proud” Founder.

Nathan Anderson profile in LinkedIn is valuable for research. At first, I found a second person working there:

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https://preview.redd.it/nlpfg9q1uvm61.png?width=415&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc4ab5c40b6e00529fd536febd8f5ec2dfb6bae4

I do not know how many people Hindenburg has to hire “Director of Human Resources” but I am very curious to see a number of 30+ there…. I have to mention also that Nathan Anderson has targeted long ago the crypto sector. The proof is laid in his profile of course. 4 years before liked (very much) a post of Ari Paul (CIO of BlockTower Capital) having this inside:

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https://preview.redd.it/5y3r6me2uvm61.png?width=337&format=png&auto=webp&s=088efae6f21460e46aaa945f98a6318abc5b38c5

Everyone who speaks English understands what the author wants to say…. There is no need for comments. BUT, all these made me search even deeper for Hindenburg Research till I find more information. And I visited opencorporates website where I found this:

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https://preview.redd.it/e4a5gub3uvm61.png?width=292&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a3e775686b9944110b1eb986c17175e02336987

https://opencorporates.com/companies/us_ny/5471661

So finally, I have an address (different from Clarity Spring’s) and an incorporation of 9th of January 2019. I then checked in NYS Department of State/Division of Corporations/Entity Information and found this link:

https://appext20.dos.ny.gov/corp_public/CORPSEARCH.ENTITY_INFORMATION?p_token=AEDDE2776DCFCF053A3B18554760AE9A4A0F68CDE4A4790F2FB1717D5E1FB39C13B48D33502866C8BF6F736CFDBE88F2&p_nameid=62461B7E4F349608&p_corpid=6EB8EB06EA7C9F46&p_captcha=13946&p_captcha_check=AEDDE2776DCFCF053A3B18554760AE9A4A0F68CDE4A4790F2FB1717D5E1FB39C5FF776AEA76DABFF53FCC583A980C42D&p_entity_name=%48%69%6E%64%65%6E%62%75%72%67&p_name_type=%25&p_search_type=%42%45%47%49%4E%53&p_srch_results_page=0

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https://preview.redd.it/pt52cg35uvm61.png?width=664&format=png&auto=webp&s=030ea802e304235753b724788451deb4be3c1a05

As soon as I found incorporation date of 9th of January 2019, I realized that I have seen reports with EARLIER DATE than this in the website of Hindenburg Research:

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https://preview.redd.it/38nuegy8uvm61.png?width=316&format=png&auto=webp&s=867600286391f6f05c7d8a139567baf57830faf1

So, if Hindenburg has been incorporated in January 2019 (according to the OFFICIAL DOCUMENTS OF NYS), who has issued these reports BEFORE January 2019? They have signed these reports as “Hindenburg Research” despite they did NOT exist (so issued by a ghost-company).

You should read the Disclosure they have in all of their reports. You can read below “report” for MARATHON of 2017:

Disclosure: I am/we are short MARA, RIOT, COOL.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Use of Hindenburg Research’s research is at your own risk. In no event should Hindenburg Research or any affiliated party be liable for any direct or indirect trading losses caused by any information in this report. You further agree to do your own research and due diligence, consult your own financial, legal, and tax advisors before making any investment decision with respect to transacting in any securities covered herein. You should assume that as of the publication date of any short-biased report or letter, Hindenburg Research (possibly along with or through our members, partners, affiliates, employees, and/or consultants) along with our clients and/or investors has a short position in all stocks (and/or options of the stock) covered herein, and therefore stands to realize significant gains in the event that the price of any stock covered herein declines. Following publication of any report or letter, we intend to continue transacting in the securities covered herein, and we may be long, short, or neutral at any time hereafter regardless of our initial recommendation, conclusions, or opinions. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor shall any security be offered or sold to any person, in any jurisdiction in which such offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. Hindenburg Research is not registered as an investment advisor in the United States or have similar registration in any other jurisdiction. To the best of our ability and belief, all information contained herein is accurate and reliable, and has been obtained from public sources we believe to be accurate and reliable, and who are not insiders or connected persons of the stock covered herein or who may otherwise owe any fiduciary duty or duty of confidentiality to the issuer. However, such information is presented “as is,” without warranty of any kind – whether express or implied. Hindenburg Research makes no representation, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of any such information or with regard to the results to be obtained from its use. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice, and Hindenburg Research does not undertake to update or supplement this report or any of the information contained herein. Hindenburg Research and the terms, logos and marks included on this report are proprietary materials. Copyright in the pages and in the screens of this report, and in the information and material therein, is proprietary material owned by Hindenburg Research unless otherwise indicated. Unless otherwise noted, all information provided in this report is subject to copyright and trademark laws. Logos and marks contained in links to third party sites belong to their respective owners. All users may not reproduce, modify, copy, alter in any way, distribute, sell, resell, transmit, transfer, license, assign or publish such information.

Reading the above disclosure, you can easily understand that these guys have tried to protect themselves (as much as they can) of being suited by stock companies and investors. They admit that there is guarantee for the accuracy of this report and that if you use the report, they are not responsible for the results that will come up.

In case someone chase them, do you believe that they will search for monay to cover law firm’s expenses? They are acting -obviously- in close partnership with Short Funds which give them the money (plenty of money) to act and I suppose on my personal opinion that they have signed a full legal coverage in case of “accident”. When they attack a company and decrease 20-30-40-50% its price, they have gained so much money that a legal fight for them means the expenses for fill up the tank of our car (for regular retail investors).

CULPER RESEARCH

We are talking for a TOTAL GHOST website. No founder, no personnel. Just a website with first page a BIG and well defensive “Disclaimer” and Reports. Reports made without signature, with no liability. The funny thing is that the name of “Culper” is also “stolen” by the “Culper Spy Ring”, also called “Culper Ring”, an American intelligence organization that was put together and managed by Maj. Benjamin Tallmadge for the Continental Army during the American Revolution.

https://www.britannica.com/topic/Culper-Spy-Ring

These guys are ghosts because they do not have the guts to be in the light. CLSK tried to chase them on January 2021 and I think that they still try to find out who is behind these. A good consultation is to “follow the money” and check WHO shorted hard just before issuing this report for them… this is the edge of the rope that will guide them outside of labyrinth Culper has built with anonymous website. No physical address, no phone number, not even an email address; just a contact form:

​

https://preview.redd.it/jo6ljmpbuvm61.png?width=251&format=png&auto=webp&s=27a3195006168cccd9c935cda4e04ceb8f092542

At the same time, the “Reports” of this GHOST WEBSITE can trigger (I will explain later how) many Law Firms to “investigate” the victims of their “Reports” and NONE lawyer in the past has searched WHO is Culper and uncover him. I think this is an “investigation” and not “please send us information of how many stocks you had, what price bought them and what price you sold them with loss, we are in lack of data”…

So, for Culper Research until I have more information about these GHOSTS, I say keep that they short stocks BEFORE issuing the reports and this is a 1st-page statement in their website:

You should assume that Culper (possibly along with or through our members, partners, affiliates, employees, and/or consultants) along with our clients and/or investors has a position in any securities covered herein. Following publication of any research, we intend to continue transacting in the securities covered herein, and we may be long, short, or neutral at any time hereafter regardless of our initial recommendation, conclusions, or opinions.

I have to remind you that they are NOT journalists, not reporters. They are short sellers or/and partners to Short Funds who only gain money by shooting against stocks. So they are brokers who say what they say in order to have profit and they cover themselves behind anonymous reports and legal disclaimer for uncertainty of data.

Such statements, estimates, projections and opinions may prove to be substantially inaccurate and are inherently subject to significant risks and uncertainties beyond Culper's control.

Disclaimer available at https://culperresearch.com/ to evaluate the above phrases….

LAW FIRMS THAT FOLLOWED HINDENBURG AND CULPER “REPORTS” AGAINST SOS

So far (13th of March 2021), these law firms have published in all big stock news websites (yahoo finance, newswire, business wire), alerts for “investigation” against SOS based on Hindenburg and Culper “Reports”:

1) Hagens Berman

2) Pomerantz

3) Levi & Korsinsky

4) Bragal Eagel & Squire

5) Kehoe

6) Howard G. Smith

7) Frank Cruz

8) Glancy Prongay & Murray

Yesterday, Hindenburg Research attacked Lordstown ($RIDE) stock with a report and automatically, some law firms published again alerts in big stock news websites. Some of them are:

1) Frank Cruz

2) Hagens Berman and others….

Common thing in every single such publication is the HUGE COST, as you can easily understand… websites do NOT publish for free anything…. Who pays for this cost? Law Firms or someone else (just asking)?

All these “Alerts” have in common the same philosophy in their texts:

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https://preview.redd.it/rvxe3ejhuvm61.png?width=605&format=png&auto=webp&s=988da5215d31140e2e89db428ab2f7bb2c0b6acc

Do you see the word “POSSIBLE” and “POTENTIAL” before “Law violations”???

All law firms ask from investors to contact them. In order to give “information” regarding the “investigation” of “possible violations”? NO.

They seek the authorization of investor to fill an action against SOS Limited to recover damages and get up to one third of this money. So they ask you to authorize them to demand your loss and then you get only 67% of what the court decided (if you prove it) because 1/3 goes to the Law Firm. Do not you believe it? Check below:

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https://preview.redd.it/gqdwk4vjuvm61.png?width=481&format=png&auto=webp&s=60323a681bdb392231ea1c762d2f85b69a199fad

SOME GENERAL INFORMATION REGARDING LEGAL ACTIONS FOR STOCKS

A very nice reference to check is this: https://www.secwhistlebloweradvocate.com/sec-whistleblower-frequently-asked-questions/

​

https://preview.redd.it/fkrtptqkuvm61.png?width=689&format=png&auto=webp&s=e1daad70c5a0a506c81aad9a3a68418c89786395

SEC receives 20,000 cases and conducts about 2,000 investigations. And if there is no strong evidence to proceed, SEC will not choose to investigate at all. Understand?

Check another thing now regarding the violation of Securities Exchange Act of 1934:

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https://preview.redd.it/qnqlxibmuvm61.png?width=676&format=png&auto=webp&s=738ac29d0d25e7032b4473c55b8d9653f6bcda3a

https://saylordotorg.github.io/text_business-law-and-the-legal-environment-v1.0-a/s49-securities-regulation.html#mayer_1.0-ch46_s01_s03

Maximum fine of $5 million for making false statements.

Search in websites for legal actions against public companies and gaining of losses.

Despite some testimonials (some $billion cases) against Pharmaceutical, Big Tobacco and Automotive companies (for deaths, accidents, health damage in general) I could not find WINS that prove the effectiveness of these law firms. Maybe (it is possible) to avoid publish these “small” cases in their websites. But on the other hand, if they are Law Firms for BIG FISH then why do they involve with penny stocks and their investors?

Anyway, I decided not to go further for Law Firms as they have a Constitutional Role for the Defence of the Rights of every citizen, in his and theirs view for Justice. And everyone is responsible for the legal actions he starts until the end of the case in a court or in a negotiation without court.

PENDING EVENTS IN NEAR FUTURE-TIMELINE

15th-31st of March: 5,000 rigs of 2nd batch to work mining BTC and ETH

1st-15th of April: 5,465 rigs of 3rd batch to arrive for installation

30th of April: Annual Earnings' Report for 2020\*

1st-15th of May: 5,465 rigs of 3rd batch to work mining BTC and ETH

15th of May to 15th of June: Q1 2021 Earnings Release

*Outstanding Revenue Growth Expected for Full Year 2020

Based on information available as of today, full year 2020 revenue is expected to be approximately $49.5 million, representing growth of 451% compared to that of 2019. The revenue's robust growth is primarily due to the effective execution of the Company's business transformation strategy, which enabled us to cease our legacy peer-to-peer lending business and focus on providing marketing-related data for clients such as insurance companies, financial institutions, medical institutions, healthcare providers and other service providers in the emergency rescue services industry. The gross margin is expected to be approximately 9%, up from 5% last year. US GAAP net profit gain is expected to be approximately $3.1 million. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sos-ltd-announces-estimated-fiscal-year-2020-financial-results-301196617.html

As calculated before, crypto mining activity in 2021 will offer an approximate total of $80 million to the revenue of the company (add mining/year of BTC and ETH), only with these 15,465 mining rigs. If SOS Limited buys more rigs, the added amount for revenue (and accordingly the added profit) will be outstanding.

ENDING COMMENT

I did not write this analysis in order to guide you to buy, hold or sell this stock. Feeling in the center of a spam attack, as an owner of shares in SOS Limited, I thought that is better to gather some interesting things which happened the last weeks. These last weeks when new people expressed interest for SOS Limited and were not here when some things happened.

I did not get into the details of “Reports” by Hindenburg and Culper not because I wanted to avoid issuing the false points mentioned in them; already simple retail investors have published point to point some posts, making these “Reports” totally inaccurate. A very solid answer to the “Reports” of Hindenburg and Culper was the Scorpion VC report with the title “SOS LTD -A potential stock company that has been maliciously shorted” (http://www.scorpio.vc/pdf/210303/c02406db-fa23-4943-9c7f-445b041f4728.pdf) having a very interesting paragraph for Future Prospects:

​

Scorpion VC prediction for SOS future

​

SOS also is the only (as far as I can know) mining company which published videos of its mining rigs https://service.sosyun.com/sos_cn/sosVideo.html

PRICE TARGET OS SOS

Scorpions VC made their analysis (check the link above) and gave a Price Target of 40$. According their increase in revenue in all other activities (cloud services, insurance and hosting for data of companies) plus the development of serious crypto mining activity, the share is going to explode and reach the price of other crypto miners such as MARA and RIOT. If we consider that SOS Limited will be able to offer the 1st Crypto Bank and Crypto Insurance in the planet, maybe the PT of 40$ seems too moderate. Future will show us the truth.

All calculations of averages, costs, profits, gains and other results are explained, so to be evaluated, verified, cross-checked by anyone. All results are approximate, with the greater possible accuracy a retail investor could have in his calculations, based on data which are online.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL IN EVERY SINGLE STOCK YOU INVEST. DO YOUR DD AND DECIDE.

Am I missing something? Seems to good to be true

I've been a hodler for awhile, and just have it sitting on a hardware wallet.

If I were to deposit 2 bitcoin (just using a random number for ease of maths) into the Nexo.io platform, and do NOTHING ELSE. I get paid 8% daily ($9600 over a year?) in nexo, or 6% back into BTC? As well as anything my BTC earns just by the nature of it going to the moon?

And if I want to take out a loan, for say a vacation for the wife and I, I can borrow with my BTC as collateral, and somehow miss a taxable event?

Am I missing something? Seems too good to be true. What large hole am I not getting 0.o

Also, thank you for the assistance here, I'm very appreciative of you community members helping newbs out :)

What is Tarkov? what changed and what has to change (for me)

lv39(current bitcoinlv2 rest maxed) total playtime around 800h-1200h (this wipe 200h by now with 1 month break)

​

Did anyone of you play gothic 1/2 and do you remember how ez the game got around chapter 4?How about mmorpgs after you reached max lvl and got to play endgame content?

"I do and a lot of it resembles my tarkov experience in recent times. BUT that is only now after so many hours of pain in this sisyphus simulator. I reached the top of the mountain and let my bitcoin farm do the work. Now its time to move on"

​

Where do we go on from here?

PVP - not with me, couple days ago i used my 100rd (20xm995, 40x m855a1 40xm995) M4 mag for 1 guy in a 6b3tm. And if i get killed by a player (except for rats) and i dont really care and if it happens that a mini chad gets my with an ak build im actually lil bit happy for him.

Quests - what gives what i get? i got enough space i can sell/buy almost anything as long as i keep myhideout running

Looting/PVE - i like to loot and killing scav bosses and hunting cultists is great.

Trading/Crafting - Yes and no. The restrictions and decisions made by the devs hurt the game when it comes down to trading. i do not agree with the decision and course of actions taken so far. note that i do not condone/promote RMT in anyway.

​

At this moment of the post i want you to know that i got around 1.5k h in csgo and idc how many hours in other fps. Competition/Skill isnt the issue. The issue is that after reaching a certain progress the game evolves from a hardcore shooter(im telling you i actually really like this game) to a management sim with very very bad multiplayer.

Give me Clans,Squads Guilds whatever you call it. Implement USEC and BEAR quests (e.g daily event quests, 2-4 players pay intel to strike against a squad already in-raid), Give us raidable hideouts and attack/defense PVE battles for bigger hideouts for bigger squads. implement karma for people who snitch and betray you (selling your intel like hideout location or squad location during raid).

Imo

​

Thx for your time.

Bitcoin power...

​

I don't think many folks realize cryptocurrency is quickly moving the civilized world to another level as far as how close countries are linked related to their politics, economy, societal makeup, human rights, and much more.

First thing is the price of an item, to the consumer, will be in the same currency worldwide at the time or purchase so it is easier to negotiate price, improve delivery times, balance the worldwide supply and demands of consumers, etc... If you think the reason your order is not arriving on time is always due to component pricing and availability or shipping you might want to think again.

In today's world the Chinese, and many others, are notorious for quoting forward pricing for orders. If the delivery of a product is scheduled for June 30th, 90 days from now, and the price quoted is $1.00 per unit whatever is needed to build that product will be bought at the lowest price for maximum profit. If the component pricing is not what it was estimated to be on June 30 for 90 days later and if the product were to be assembled and shipped the resulting profit will be 5% less they give excuse after excuse until they recover that 5% profit.

Same thing with currency. The component value could be the same but the value of the Chinese Yuan drops versus the U.S. dollar...Unless negotiated up front someone is going to get screwed in the final exchange of payment.

Not with cryptocurrency...

With governments and big business throughout the world starting to use or moving towards using cryptocurrency as a standard for measuring wealth and executing transactions the end result, not in my lifetime, could be the death of the dollar, yen, peso, ruble, pound, etc... and certainly a more stable balance of world power.

Meaning a significant tragedy today such as a war, weather event, genocide, coup, Zombies, etc... occurring in a civilized country will impact the economy, currency, world standing, politics, people, etc... of the country or countries involved in the event. The conversion rate of the currency for each country is determined by the world market of other countries and what the country in question has in their treasury, resource potential, GDP, political stability, etc...

Imagine if WAWA Land was invaded by Zombies. Their government becomes a shambles along with their health care system, economy, etc... WAWA Land wants to buy billions of dollars of medical supplies, weapons to fight the zombies, food, etc... The cost of those is determined by what Disney Land, who made the those supplies, is willing to sell them for U.S. dollars.

In today's world Disney Land wants $1.00 per item. On January 1, 2025 the exchange rate for $1 U.S. dollar is $1 WAWA Land dollar. On June 30, 2025 Zombies invade WAWA Land and their economy goes south. The WAWA Land dollar is now worth 50 cents. That problem or renegotiation of the January 1, 2025 agreed upon contract is between Disney Land and WAWA Land. The ripple effect throughout the world from what Disney Land was willing to pay for the components needed to assemble each item has to change as well or the entire deal falls through.

If Disney Land and WAWA Land both used bitcoin as their currency, and method of payment, the value of the currency used in the transaction will be the same in Disney Land and WAWA Land at the time of the transaction given time regardless of situation or location.

The point is...Will having a worldwide common currency, such as bitcoin, force countries to work together more in order to maintain a stable currency platform with a stable or positive value...resulting in less confrontation each full well knowing what will happen if they don't play nice.

Probably....which means a few countries including the USA, China, Russia will have less control over the value of money which equates to less power each will have over the rest of the world.

That's my soapbox story of the day...

Play the Devil's advocate for me...I could be way off or maybe not.

DD - FNKO Launching NFTs in 2021

FNKO (Funko)

Share Price (3/12/21) : $17.77

Share Price (09/16/19) : $27.86

Short Interest (1/26/21) : 12%

Next Earnings Release: May 2021

Updating two previous DD posts on Funko Toys with new information based on their latest conference call earlier this week (DD1, DD2).

Funko is well positioned for continued growth in 2021 with potential upside from entering the hot NFT market “fairly soon.”

(TL;DR at the end)

Here are some highlights from their Q4 earnings report (3/11), Q4 earnings call (3/11), and an interview with the CEO this morning (3/12) with additional information on each bullet further down in the post (For more context please review the prior DDs linked above):

· Funko beat expectations with its second highest revenue quarter ever

· Growth is expected continue in 2021; driven by Europe, Loungefly, and other initiatives

· Operational responsiveness and flexibility has allowed Funko to thrive during the pandemic while providing a way to engage with fans in new and more creative ways

· Multiple analysts increased their price targets on the stock after the earnings release

· Funko’s CEO Brian Mariotti announced the day after earnings that Funko intends to move into the NFT (Non-Fungible Token) market “fairly soon”

FUNKO BEATS EXPECTATIONS

· Net Sales in Q4 2020 was up 6% vs Q4 2019 to $226 million

o This represented Funko’s second highest revenue quarter in its history

o Outperformance was driven by the US market which had its highest revenue quarter in history and grew 18% vs. Q4 2019

o International was constrained by lockdowns; but still grew 10% vs. Q3 2020

o Non-figure product revenue grew 30% in the quarter vs Q4 2019

· Gross margins increased 37.2% in Q4 2020 vs. 29.2% in Q4 2019

· SG&A decreased 6% to $53 million

· Cash Flow From Operations increased 69% to $47 million

· Funko’s direct-to-consumer sales nearly doubled compared to the prior year

GROWTH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN 2021

· Funko is forecasting 30% revenue growth in Q1 2021 (vs. Q1 2020)

· Full year sales growth is forecasted at between 25-30%

· Gross margin is expected to strengthen in 2021; driven by Funko’s direct-to-consumer initiative and from regional / distribution mix shifts

· Full year adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase 120 to 170 basis points to between 13.5% and 14.0%

· Many major Television, Film, and other properties held back because of the pandemic are expected to return as the economy opens up. This will create demand for new purchases.

o Marvel: It is expected that Marvel will be releasing about 5 new television shows on Disney + this year and another 5 films theatrically.

o Games: Several hot game properties will be releases later this year that will create more content from which to create Funko toys

o Other: Funko is always making deals for new IP licenses and expects to make a “major master toy announcement” fairly soon

· Loungefly and Snapsies product lines continue to grow and provide additional avenues for Funko to drive more sales growth

FUNKO THRIVES DURING THE PANDEMIC

· Despite many major releases throughout the pandemic beyond The Mandalorian, Funko was still able to drive significant purchase activity of it’s brand and products

o Evergreen content represented 68% of sales. (Evergreen content is essentially licensed properties that don’t have a major release associated with them at the time. For example, Harry Potter and The Office would be examples of Evergreen Television properties sold last quarter.)

o As the economy opens up, Funko expects more properties to become available for licensing and product development

· Funko was able to accelerate its move to create a direct-to-consumer website for Funko products in Europe ahead by two years ahead of schedule

o FunkoEurope.com was launched in Q4 2020 (October); allowing Funko grow its sales in Europe despite lockdowns

o Given that Funko’s direct-to-consumer site just launched, we can expect continued growth back to pre-pandemic levels in Europe over time as Funko drives traffic to its website and countries open back up from lockdown

o Five months ago, Funko started in three EMEA countries and has since expanded to eight countries in the region

· Funko’s diversification into other products like Loungefly bags and board games help Funko maintain growth during the pandemic

o Non-figure products represented 23% of revenues

o Funko’s expanded games portfolio grew 50%

o Loungefly grew 55% in Q4

-- Funko will be expanding its Loungefly relationship with Amazon this year

-- Loungefly is seeing strong demand across EMEA and other regions

o In board games, Funko launched new titles like Marvel Battleworld, Godzilla, Tokyo Clash, and Back To The Future to name a few

· Funko’s overall e-commerce and direct-to-consumer business continued to perform well, expanding on strong Q3 2020 performance

o Total direct-to-consumer sales were 8% of revenues in 2020 vs. 4% the prior year

o Global mass market and third party e-commerce helped drive growth in 2020 as it represented 35% of sales in 2020 vs. 28% in 2019

· Funko adjusted by finding new ways to connect with fans during the pandemic as in-person events like San Diego Comicon were not possible

-- “Virtual cons” in connection with Comicon in San Diego, New York, and Emerald City were successful in driving revenue increases

-- Social media promotions helped drive increased engagement / awareness

-- In lieu of attending New York Toy Fair, Funko decided to host its first ever virtual “Funko Fair” where they partnered with their licensors and retailers to engage fans and launch new offerings.

· The event was a big success leading to nearly 1.5 million units being pre-sold to fans through retail partners. Many of those items sold are still six to nine months away from being released.

· Funko launched “Funko Pop Albums” in 2020 where they release Pop! versions of classic album covers

o For example, the AC/DC’s classic “Black In Black” record was Funko’s top collectible item at one of their key mass market retailers

o Given the strong initial fan reaction, Funko plans to expand the concept across new genres including sports, trading cards, and comic book covers

MULTIPLE ANALYSTS INCREASE THEIR PRICE TARGETS

· Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng

o Raised the target price 130% to $15.30 (from $6.60)

o Q4 EBITDA beat expectations

o Impressed by Funko’s ability to pivot during the pandemic by leaning into e-commerce, games, and soft goods

· DA Davidson analyst Lind Bolton Weiser

o Raised the target price 142% to $17.00 (from $7.00)

o Boosting their modeled multiple to 17-times earnings (from 9-times earnings)

o Believes the company is returning to growth while improving its fundamentals

· Truist analyst Michael Swartz

o Raised the target price 38% to $18.00 (from $13.00)

o Funko reported a much better than anticipated Q4 and 2021 guidance

o Looks well positioned for the year ahead given the strong theatrical line-up, easy comps, product expansion initiatives, and the favorable impact of its high-growth DTC platform

· Piper Sandler analyst Erinn Murphy

o Raised the target price 46% to $22.00 (from $15.00)

o Strong Q4 results

(At this point my post moves away from more traditional fundamental analysis / information towards more speculative types of things. While I do not really understand the fascination with cryptos nor NFT’s themselves, I do recognize that valuations throughout financial markets have deviated significantly from how I might value them based on more traditional metrics like price-to-earnings ratios or discounted free-cash-flow. Obviously, Tesla, AMC, and GameStop are recent examples of this in the stock market. Crpytos, sports cards, and Pokemon cards are recent examples in other markets (where there isn’t really any cashflow or profit stream intrinsic to the underlying asset from which to determine value). So, if you decide to purchase the stock based on factors outside of fundamental analysis, like momentum and meme-ability, please make sure to position size and be careful. As they say, return-of-capital is just as important as return-on-capital. So, once you move away from fundamental analysis to determine entry and exit into a position, the decision becomes primarily one based on emotion and “gut feel.” Finally, here are two books that I recommend on understanding market bubbles. BOOK 1. BOOK 2. That’s all for my PSA. I’ll get off my soapbox now and go back to the DD. Thank you for reading. Obviously, the news today that Funko plans to enter the NFT marketplace soon is an important announcement. So any DD without incorporating NFT’s into it would clearly be incomplete.)

FUNKO MOVING INTO NFTs “FAIRLY SOON”

There aren’t many publicly traded companies that I can think of at this point playing in the NFT space. You have companies like Square and Paypal getting into cryptos from traditional fintech. You have companies with a core business outside of cryptos like MicroStrategy and Tesla buying Bitcoin for their treasury. Then you have others like Coinbase and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust who were born from the crypto world. But there none I can think of that are tied directly to NFT’s right now other than Funko.

(If you can think of any other publicly traded companies that have announced their intention to move into NFT’s, please post their names in the comments below. Thank you.)

After today’s interview with CEO Brian Mariotti (quote at the end of this section), Funko seems to have the NFT market clearly in its sights. As we have seen with many other crpyto-related stocks, a company’s share price can swing wildly on a small announcement and the volatility can be extreme. If Funko issues a press release or makes a formal announcement about a new NFT product, the share price could move quickly one way or the other. Because of this, there is clearly additional value beyond its core physical Pops and Loungefly businesses that could be added to Funko’s valuation.

I don’t even know how to begin to estimate the potential value of NFT’s on Funko’s stock price. So instead of doing that, I will try to provide some information and research on recent activity in the NFT space. Hopefully this will be useful to you in deciding whether you would like to incorporate NFT’s in the estimate of what you think Funko is worth.

Highlights of recent NFT milestones and news events:

· Beeple is the poster child of NFT right now as he recently sold his NFT for $69 million (Here)

· NBA launches NBA Top Shots where people can buy NFTs highlights of basketball plays. This guy turned $175k into $20 million in value. (Here)

· Goldin Auctions getting into NFTs after dominating physical sports card auctions

· Elon Musk’s girlfriend Grimes (a singer) sold $5.8 million in NFT art in 20 minutes (Here)

· Jack Dorsey is auctioning off the very first tweet as an NFT (Here)

· Nyan cat sells for $600,000 (Here)

· Crypto Punks are sold for values from tens of thousands to millions of dollars (Here)

· CryptoKitties can sell for thousands or more (Here)

· A start-up raises $5 million to create a fantasy-based NFT video game (Here)

· Video game items and real estate being purchased as NFTs, potentially changing how games are developed and monetized (Here)

· Investment funds are being created to invest in NFTs (Here)

· DC Comics tells artists not to create NFTs based on their IP while it researches the space; suggesting that DC Comics may already have NFT deals pending announcement or in negotiations (Here)

Celebrities, famous people, and others talking about or playing in the NFT space:

Cathie Wood

Gary Vee

Rob Gronkowski

William Shatner

Mark Cuban

Patrick Mahomes

Lindsey Lohan

Potential impact of NFT’s on Funko’s go-to-market strategy (speculating on how Funko MIGHT implement NFT’s to expand and reinforce their business model):

· Digital items have the ability to move globally in an instant; increasing the total addressable market. Both for Funko and for collectors.

o For Funko it allows them to sell into harder to reach markets like Latin America, Africa, and Asia. There are probably wealthy collectors in many countries that want to own Funko and Loungefly products, but don’t have immediate access.

o For collectors, it allows them to buy and sell digital items across the world instantly without having to wait on receiving a physical item. There is even the potential for an item

· All collectibles and art have concerns with fakes and counterfeits. By using blockchain technology and NFT’s, Funko can reduce the impact of counterfeiters on their business. When someone purchases a rare item, their NFT can serve as certification of its authenticity through the blockchain.

· NFT’s allow Funko to move to blockchain based payment systems and tap wealthy investors looking to diversify out of their crypto coin holdings into physical and digital items.

o There are many wealthy crypto investors that are looking to park their money in other investments to diversify their portfolio.

o Additionally, there are other investors that are not currently investing in cryptos and blockchain that might be interesting in a solution that merges a rare physical item with a rare digital NFT.

· NFT “artists” or “creators” can collect a piece of the revenue each time the specific digital asset turns over. For example, if Funko made an NFT and it was sold 20 times over the course of a year, a company Funko might collect a fee every time the NFT were sold (depending on how the system were structured).

o Funko NFTs could be sold directly to the consumer through Funko’s website or (what I think is more likely) through retail partners like GameStop, Target, Walmart, Hot Topic, and other retailers looking to get in on the NFT craze.

Quote from Funko’s CEO interview about NFT’s:

“We’re excited about it and we have a plan in place. We have some technology in place. We are going to be out in the market fairly soon. But we’re going to out in the market in a very different way. We have the ability to disrupt this space in a way that nobody else is doing right now. We can tie digital NFT’s to our fan base and link NFT’s with physical products. And that’s not happening right now. So, for example, if you had a pack of NFT’s. I won’t mention licenses. And there are a few rare ones. If you have those rare ones, we’re going to give you a free product that is tied to that rare NFT. Which means you have a super rare physical product that ties to your super rare NFT. That’s disruptive. That’s new. It’s different. It’s only what Funko can do. And we’re really excited about what the future of NFT’s are. We’re certainly all over this. And I think you’ll see fairly soon from Funko in the market.”

TL;DR:

As expected, Funko had a strong Q4 2020, driven by continued strength in their core product line and e-commerce sales in the US market. Funko’s sales are expected to continue to grow in 2021 as the company builds upon its wins from the second half of 2020. Funko’s international business represents an area of additional opportunity as the company has not fully recovered from sales declines in the region yet. Continued development of Funko’s direct-to-consumer initiatives in Europe along with store reopenings after lockdowns should remedy this.

While Funko has not formally announced their entry into the NFT market with a press release, thier CEO's interview with Yahoo Finance suggests that the company soon will. Funko announcing their entry into NFT’s would probably drive more attention to the stock and more investors to Funko products. At that point Funko would become more than just a “toy company.” They would become a collectibles company making products for the NFT marketplace. Many products made by Funko already command a significant premium in the secondary market. (Some examples: Disney Bag 1, Disney Bag 2, Funko 1, Funko 2, Funko 3). Imagine what could happen to prices if those same products were combined with accompanying NFTs. This new opportunity with NFT’s provides optionality on an already stable core business of collectible toys, games, and merchandise.

Positions: Long Shares & Calls

Disclosure: I am long FNKO. This is not investment advice. I reserve the right to buy or sell FNKO without updating this thread. Do your own research and share (or not share) with the community in this thread. Thank you to the others on Reddit that shared this idea earlier.

Feedback: If you have any additional information, ideas, or critiques please make sure to comment. It is great to get the perspective of others when making an investment.

Previous DD:

FNKO 1

FNKO 2

Herman Miller

Bitcoin broke $60K! Reminder: Time *in* the market beats trying to time the market; DCA + HODL = FTW

High fives everyone! Bitcoin broke $60K for the first time (and hopefully the last time ;D).

Some look at All Time Highs as the perfect time to take profits.

The thinking goes:

1. Time the market by selling at the ATH
2. Let the price fall as other people sell to take profits thereby tanking the price
3. Then buy more stocks or coins at that cheaper price to end up with more gains than if you just bought and HODLed through the ATH price correction

The problem with that is your timing has to be pretty good all the time. Just one or two bad trades and you can get rekt. More than one trader has been ruined by this line of thinking ever since stocks and bonds were invented.

It's called "outhinking the market" and is a common trap for many investors, both new and veteran traders alike. You can't deny that massive gains *can* be made from Technical Analysis - that S2F model is scarily accurate - but no model is 100% accurate and one Black Swan event - especially combined with leveraged trading - can sometimes lead to massive losses.

Some people like to learn the hard way but if you want to make it to become a Crypto OG, you'll heed the words of crypto veterans that the path of least resistance and less stress to building bags of crypto over the long run that:

DCA + HODL = FTW

Bitcoin surges past $60,000

As repetitive as it sounds Billy called it again... it’s “another day, another ATH.” On the back of an over 5% hike over the last few hours, Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, breached the much-anticipated $60,000-mark, with the crypto building on 2021’s gains yet again.

BTC’s breach of $60k was welcomed and celebrated by many in the community, especially since just recently, Bitcoin’s market cap passed the value of $1 trillion once again. Understandably, the scale and pace of BTC’s price movement have taken many by surprise, especially since for long periods over the past 2-3 weeks, the cryptocurrency was rangebound, whether under $47,000 or under $54,000.

Curiously, Bitcoin’s latest ATH came just over a year after the infamous Black Thursday event, a day that saw the cryptocurrency fall to as low as $4,000 on the charts. Since then, BTC has hiked, with a spurt in DAA helping the cryptocurrency rise on the charts.

Here, it’s worth noting that Bitcoin’s breach of $50k and later, $55k, were precipitated by important developments, including MicroStrategy’s decision to purchase more Bitcoin by offering $600M worth of senior convertible notes.

https://preview.redd.it/0djyi8zp9um61.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a5ae4281966d99f0f8b016236303208be25fc983

Is it just me, or is BTC hitting a new all time high not that big of a deal any more?

It feels like everyone now has realized the potential of Bitcoin and that each new all time high is more of an expected event. I think once it hits 75k people will talk, and definitely once it hits 100k, that's when the whole world will realize and jump on board. I think it's pretty cool how 60k was just like, yeah, cool. When's 100k? Also... Let's gooooo

The American Leviathan Is Going To Unleash The Hyperinflation

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https://preview.redd.it/4q7hj4ddztm61.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ee727fdab6293bacd70886f223dc172284008273

During those hard times it is wise to look at those scholars who showed the way. Peter Kolosimo, Erich Von Daniken, Graham Hancock, Zecheria Sitchin, Mauro Biglino are the most prominent scholars who paved the road to the disclosure. Hundreds and hundreds of books and in the end of course we can only speculate because we do no have evidences but can assert that the human aliens Elohim-Annunaki-Theoi-Dei rule the world and right now they drive the human flock to the slaughterhouse. The financial economic system was founded and managed by the same Elohim-Annunaki-Theoi-Dei and by means of that system the Elohim subjugate the entire humanity.

The evil American Empire ( the American Emperor, usually called American President, is just a worthless puppet ) is going to print gazillions of dollar garbage. The shitty dollar is as good as the venezuelan bolivar. That means the hyperinflation will skyrocket very soon. Hyperinflation is a disguised tax the ordinary people have to pay to the elites. By the way, with regard to the elites why are most of the american british tycoons such as Warren Buffet, Ray Dalio-Dall'Olio, Bill Gates, George Soros, Rupert Murdoch, why are they pseudo-philantropists? This is one of the craziest absurdities of the American Empire. The american vassal European Union, de facto colony of the American Empire, will print euros like hell and in the end of the day fiat currencies will be like shitcoins. How to protect your wealth, in case you still have it. Few investments are worth.

• Gold
• Commodities
• Bitcoin
• Altcoins

If you buy gold, silver, platinum, whatever, keep it safe in a vault within your house. Do no trust on banks. Banks are thieves. Do no trust on Gold ETFs, that's not gold, it's just toilet paper with whom you can clean your ass: the gold is stored by someone else.

In the end of the day if you want to resort to bitcoin or altcoins-shitcoins, you have to look at the historical series. Otherwise you will be doomed. So for your sake I will share some python scripts with you in order to get the series of the price variation. Some experts say that bitcoin is a store of value and altcoins are shitcoins. Other experts say that bitcoin is actually useless ( that's true) and some altcoins-shitcoins like ethereum, polkadot, atom, cardano are the foundation of the upcoming finance.

Of course, for the retards I have to say this is NOT financial advise. This article is only for educational purpose and you are responsible of your actions. If you get wrecked, you are the fool to blame for.

Here is the source.

Set a new environment so that you do not mess up your profile

$ mkdir venv

$ python3 -m venv venv

$ . venv/bin/activate

(venv) $

You have to install pycoingecko

(venv) $ pip3 install pycoingecko

The file price_hist.py provides the csv file tabelle_price_history.csv with the table which contains the deltas in percentage of the current price of the cryptocoins. You have to put the list of ids of the coins in one txt file: one id of coins per line You can get the list of the ids of the coin by runnig the program coins_list.py and you get the file table_coins_list.csv.

(venv) $python3 coins_list.py

and you get the file table_coins_list.csv. You need to install the package pycoingecko before running it You open table_coins_list.csv and the first column is the id, the second colum is the symbol, the hitrd column is the name You choose the coins and out the ids in the file for the coin list For example you create the txt file coins.txt and you put each id of coin per line like below ( I have out the escape '\n' for the ewn line becasue the README does not allow to ouput the new line)

'ethereum\nbitcoin\npolkadot\nchainlink\nuniswap\n'

Then you had to prepare the second txt file with the deltas of time , each delta is indicated in number of days as of today and you have to put the list of amount of days in the first row of the txt file and of course the numbers separated by comma like below

1,7,14,21,30,60,90,120,150,180,360,720,

Then let's say that the file with the coin list is coins.txt and the txt file with the deltas of days as of today is list_of_days.txt When you run the program price_hist.py you have to give two parameters: the first is the file with the coin list and the second is the txt file with the deltas of days as of today You ran it like below

$ python3 price_hist.py short_coins.txt list_of_days.txt

and you get the csv file tabelle_price_history.csv

In tabelle_price_history.csv the first column is the coin name, then the following columns contain the price delta in percentage compared to the today price

Below you see the table

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https://preview.redd.it/wrxjzf6xztm61.png?width=1571&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e59d85d519042eb2c1ffa2003bf087c9595c411

In the next weeks hopefully I will write articles about the impact of the Elohim-Annunaki-Theoi-Dei in the job market or in general into the economic financial system because this is an important future aspect which none deals with. Instead, people have to get accustomed to the Elohim-Annunaki-Theoi-Dei in case they should want to show up again. That's a realistic option in virtue of the craziest events which occur.

Coinbase Robbed My Account - Zero Accountability from Coinbase

I am just in complete shock about how Coinbase is handling situations on this subreddit, on various review boards, and even with my own personal situation. I have only used this app for one month and am just completely fed up.

Understandably, I had a pending deposit that resulted in an ACH issue worth $500 that Coinbase alerted me to, and understanding that I made sure to clear it by adding more liquidity to cover. I did that, communicated with my bank and they assured me that the withdrawals to Coinbase had went through.

Still, throughout the week, I was attempting to pay with my bank account as you can't with a debit card, but Coinbase refused to do so giving me the "We're having connection trouble, but your funds are safe. Please try again later today", 'you have to contact coinbase support to reinstate your bank account' , and all this other nonsense that just highlights their non-existent customer service.

I was so fortunate to wake up today, which is when they said they would recover payment, to see that more than $500 had been withdrawn in bitcoin (pretty much all my holdings aside from a small amount) and still unable to buy/sell/withdraw on the app. Essentially I was robbed and am still unable to interact with the currencies I have left.

At this Coinbase, if you do not respond to my complaints and case numbers, I will have to submit complaints directly to your state agency in pursuit of my money that you stole from me, the BBB, and engage in legal action. I am baffled at how this company has not been put under already, I hope to never do business with Coinbase again, and wherever I am able to leave negative reviews and prevent people from making the same mistake I did of joining, I will vehemently do so. Straight up thievery with no accountability.

*And to those people who have never had any problems with Coinbase, fantastic I am so happy for you, but just because you have never had any issues doesn't discredit the several thousands of others who have had their accounts locked and funds depleted by this shame of a company. Sure you may be ok now, but in the event that you have an issue then you will wake up and understand the reality of the situation.

u/coinbasesupport, please resolve my situation immediately I want to see my funds restored that you stole from my bank account, so I can leave this app with my own sanity before I punch a hole in the wall. It seems that coinbase support only responds to select messages and heightened threats, so do so with haste.

Case #05053355, #05056056, #05086770

Not a financial advisor but bitcoin hitting highs? My thoughts lead to GME go brrrrrr 🚀🚀🚀

I do not have much knowledge on cryptocurrencies but my theory on the recent highs occuring this weekend for bitcoin is the hedge funds are preparing for bankruptcy and hiding some of their funds in bitcoin before the margin call occurs. Im not sure if this is a place that they would be able to hide their money or not thats why i want to leave it up for discussion where someone much smarter than me can maybe shed some light on this topic. Been on this wave with you guys since the beginning i hold 155 shares and 12 call options 4/16 800$ and you guys are all helping change my life and am so fortunate to have you guys along for the ride with me. Stop putting dates on it regardless of what happens we hold we win at this point and the only thing that can stop us is fear. Its a mental game now take care of yourself.

Thank you all for being apart of one of the largest events in Wall Street history.

I am not a financial advisor and after reading that you know i wasnt an english major either...

See you on the moon 🚀🚀🚀

Volatility workflow, tools and a bonus trade

Guys. Look at my inbox.

I'm really glad folks here are excited about my recent posts. It sounds like it's really been helping folks out. I don't claim to know everything (or really anything) there is about trading, but looking at options as a volatility instrument rather than a directional instrument has really improved my trading over this last quarter. That's not to say I'm a good trader, just a less bad one. Maybe one day I'll be a good one. A lot of this comes from having better data through my tools.

My Workflow and Tools

1. Find a trade
2. Analyze the trade
3. Stress the trade

Finding a trade

Finding a trade comes from a couple of places. One is listening to good traders. Ever since I started studying volatility traders specifically, a whole bunch of trade opportunities have become apparent. (That's not to say directional traders are worse in some way, I just can't seem to get the hang of it, either daytrading or value investing. There's only two directions, up or down, and somehow I always pick the wrong one.) Someone I know shared an interesting idea for short TSLA vol trade that came from listening to a market podcast where someone mentioned elevated 1 yr volatility as a throwaway comment.

The other comes from running scanners. I trade through ETrade and their platform has a few naive ones, "unusual options activity," but I personally cannot figure out how to extract useful information out of that, it's too vague. I have to do a lot of extra research on top of that. The other tool I use is the Predicting Alpha Terminal. Half of you came here just to see that, so you can basically close this post and move on with your lives. It has a scanner baked in for general vol trades and a specialized one for earnings trades. There's also a bonkers video/educational library that has helped me immensely. I'm not shilling, I just pay for the product and it's really good for what I'm doing. Full disclosure, subscription comes with discord access so I do get to chat with the founders (it's a small startup) every now and again.

As an example, here's a scan I ran just now, filtering out penny stocks, limiting it to stocks which have an elevated IV Rank, looking for things where IV is greater than the forecast volatility, I found this.

Analyzing the trade

No surprises here, I do most of the analysis in the PA Terminal. I just took the findings from the scanner and fed it into their volatility analyzer. It looks like the iShares 10 year bond ETF (IEF) has a 30 day short volatility opportunity. At this point I would probably go to yahoo finance (I know, boomer website) and see what exactly it holds and maybe try to figure out why the 30 day vol is elevated. You might think it's just from recent bond market stuff, but TLT and LQD have normal looking vol cones. EMB also has this elevated 30 day thing, so maybe there's some event happening in the next 30 days that affects just these two ETFs. This warrants more research.

Stressing the trade

You've seen this one, I stress trades in Thinkorswim. On the downside with a 3% move and a 6 point spike in volatility to historical max, you're looking at a loss of $150 per lot. On the upside, it's ~$200 with a 9 point drop in volatility, but depending on what you think is causing the 30 day spike, this might be a super high conviction trade.

Also it's worth verifying that your numbers match up. TOS is giving me different volatility numbers for the 30 day expiration, but matching ones at 20 days. It's possible that this comes from bad liquidity on the ETF, wacky after-hours numbers, who knows. This isn't a real trade, this is just an example.

And that's it, that's my workflow.

BONUS TRADE

That IEF thing was just an example of a thing I found while casually looking at the scanner. Here's the actual bonus trade. So some ideas come from good traders or actively searching. This one came from "Huh, I wonder what bitcoin is doing." There's an ETF, BLOK, which tries to pretend it's not just a bitcoin ETF but it only invests in mining companies or holding companies, so it's a bitcoin ETF.

Here's the vol cone. Elevated across the board and flat as a pancake. Near all-time-highs in the longer dated tenors. It's a short vol opportunity. Stressing it to a 10% move with +30 vol gives a loss of -800 per lot. A winning position is a drop of 60 vol points to the third quartile, max of $2000 per lot, breakevens at a 35% crash or a 75% rally.

Two things to be aware of. I have no idea why the vol cone looks like that. It holds a bunch of companies in small amounts, 5% each. I can't find any obvious correlations with anything except for the BTC-USD price. Second, I don't know if any of my numbers make sense. I expect mean reversion, but will it go down? Is it establishing a new median? Is a 10% move on a blockchain ETF sensible? Do the previous volatility highs represent an upper bound? It's bitcoin, who knows! NFTs are apparently digital beanie babies and all the rage, so... maybe it's that? Personally I am indifferent to crypto despite its crazy returns the last few years, so I can't make sense of these numbers. But if you're a crypto-enthusiast, maybe there's something for you there. All I know is that the weird shapes on this graph tells me something is mispriced and if you're smart enough, you can take advantage of it.

Conclusions

The PA terminal is expensive (80/month) but I can't trade vol effectively without it. It easily pays for itself by filtering out the number of losing trades I used to make, making the winners that much more valuable. If you're on the fence about it, they're about to release a new version that's supposed to be easier to use for novice traders and it'll come with a week free trial. They've been mentioning it on their youtube streams the past few weeks, which is also a great resource if you want someone else to do earnings analysis for you. I think they're taking folks in manually by email? Check the live streams to be sure.

If you do get it, the one downside is that there's a lot of educational material. It's designed to make you a better trader and to help you create your own strategies, but I felt lost with regards to "what can I do right nowwwwwwww." If that sounds familiar, I highly recommend you go straight to the earnings strategy as something that is mechanically, immediately actionable for smaller accounts. After earnings season is over (next week or two, I think), gamma scalping is probably going to be your go to play. If your portfolio is big enough, you could probably go straight to shorting vol on SPY or running backspreads on it to capture skew.

Edit: I confirmed that if you want in on the free trial, send an email to sean@predictingalpha.com. Don't tell him I sent you, he might read my posts and find out how badly I've misunderstood their educational material.