Major Moon Math Update: The case for 1M USD/BTC by the end of 2021
If you’re a reasonable person you’re already puckering up your butthole. For the moment, please suspend disbelief, unclench your nether regions (around where you put your coal from last christmas), and let that diamond dislodge itself.
There’s a case to be made for one million US dollars per bitcoin. The date for that price target is the end of 2021. Yes, it’s a long-shot. Yes, that prediction requires engaging in speculation. Yes, that speculation is reckless. And, yes, we’re going to engage in that recklessness anyway.
...And, why? Because we’re on the internet and this is supposed to be fun. And, I want /u/nannal to quit his job bagging groceries in the next 14 months. And, we’re going to do this shit because we can, just like we can start a sentence with a conjunction, you dirty little prescriptivist (please reference aforementioned ass clenching).
Still clutching your pearls? Good, because bitcoin ain’t free and you need to pawn those. HODL, pheasants.
Let’s do this shit!
First.
1) I’m a mod here, but there’s a few assholes who think that only makes me a power-hungry dictator. This isn’t an official statement, and these are my personal views.
2) I built the MoonMath site, but many other people in this sub had a hand in developing ideas and improving the site over time. Please be respectful to them and their contributions. These are just ideas and speculation, not a religion.
3) I have a lot of financial resources at stake in this discussion, and probably one metric fuck ton more than you. This halving can create a significant life change for me, or it might not.
Like many of the oldtimers around here, I’m engaging with the possibility of a wide variety of outcomes. One of those outcomes is that Bitcoin doesn’t do a damn thing in 2021. There’s a very real possibility that anybody buying bitcoin today will never see a profit. I think that probability is low, which is why I haven’t cashed out for a life changing amount of money… yet.
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ATH in 2020 Guaran-fuck’in-teed
Presently, Bitcoin sits at 18,559.20 USD on Bitstamp and we’ve held over 18k for days. In all likelihood, in 2020, 18k will hold, continuously, for an historically long period. Or, we’ll retrace /u/merlin560 ’s long pole (gigity) but we’ll still spend more time over 18k USD/BTC than ever before. 18k will become a floor of support for Bitcoin’s price either now or later, but certainly this year. And, if bitcoin sits within 10% of an ATH for any length of time it’s going to get an ATH. Guaran-fuck’in-teed.
Also, /u/smksldlag ‘s mother whispered to me about a bitcoin ATH this year. (hey Siri, set a reminder to DM /u/smksldlag ‘s mother and have her top up my cell phone so I can call her late night like she likes.)
This Bull run is kicking off early and fast
OBV shows accumulation and distribution of an asset on longer timeframes, especially when you look at the daily or weekly chart. We can see that bull markets consistently show rapid accumulation in BTC through halving events and that this time we’re moving at a pace that more resembles the 2012 halving, but with more speed, greater longevity, and more stability; the market isn’t hesitating as expected, neither when nor where.
The price of Bitcoin is more stable than ever
Getting in fights over the stability of bitcoin was normal for me in 2016. I’d argue that bitcoin is getting more stable over time and other people would tell me that there’s no evidence for that… and that I’m full of shit.
Those people may have been right then, but sure as a duck’s dick drags weeds I’m right today. Weekly Bollinger Band widths show a clear trend toward greater overall stability in the price of bitcoin.
A stable bitcoin is a mature bitcoin, and we all know how much institutional investors want to see greater stability in uncorrelated assets that yield high returns. Diversification isn’t just for /u/smksldlag ‘s mother.
Retail investment is through the roof
Bitcoin didn’t always have a vast selection of exchanges. In fact, there was a substantial period of time where you’d have to use a credit card or personal loan if you wanted to use leverage to buy bitcoin. Leveraged positions on an exchange first became available to Bitcoin in March of 2013, and the rapid expansion of credit available to bitcoin markets shows the role it played in both the boom and the bust cycles of Bitcoin in our first major bull run. Analysis of that chart shows that retail’s percent of trade volume dropped rapidly in 2013, and never really recovered. However, the last 9 months show a dramatic real shift away from credit based trading. Markets are moving toward real cash-based purchases and that leveraged traders and exchanges have been effectively pushed out of the market. Today, for the first time in three years, OTC sources make up more than half of bitcoin’s volume, and the trend is still up.
Altcoins probably aren’t going to recover
Or, at least, the altcoins that were popular in the last cycle will not be as popular in this one.
The previous MoonMath update made a few pessimistic predictions about shitcoin markets, and basically pegged where we’re at now. Also, I did not predict the dramatic drop in price that we saw as a result of coronavirus earlier this year. In retrospect, I probably should’ve known that the macro economic cycles of the world are actually impacting Bitcoin's price now. However the price was like 9k or 10k when I wrote the last update, and that’s about where we were two months ago.
Institutions are here
... and they have no shits for your shitcoins
If rumors prove out, we will see that all large-fund managers will want some level of exposure to Bitcoin in the near future. That’s hard to imagine today, but for the first time it’s actually possible. Smart money will not drive the boom and bust cycles that we’ve seen from Bitcoin enthusiasts who are native to this market. When smart money talks, that bullshit walks.
Altcoins were a major limiting factor in the last bull run because they created a mirage of too much hypothetical (non real) value and combined forces with CME to pop the bull run early.
Let’s round things out
- The bull is early, fast, stable, and has demonstrated longevity
- Even though we’re in a bull run, the price is more stable than ever
- Retail investment is insanely high
- Bitcoin scored a 33-month high to round out October and probably will again in November
- Bitcoin continues to be an uncorrelated asset, and it is breaking away from trends in the S&P 500, as well as VIX (Exposure to uncorrelated assets is ideal to fund managers)
- 70,000 bitcoins left wallets that had more than 100 bitcoins in October. However, wallets with less than 100 bitcoin more than made up for the needed demand
- Your altcoin is non real and has no demonstrated value after 4 more years of time to invent it.
You can go ahead and stick that diamond in your pipe and smoke it now.
Good hunting.
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