Sunday, February 14, 2021

Ironic that Taleb has a blindspot to Btc as a black swan

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1360926610392768514

https://preview.redd.it/nr6n9g6hdih61.png?width=1172&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d2388082084231d4ff06e1d222eab8a09dab4d4

Taleb, that guy who popularized the concept of the black swan (something highly unlikely, unpredictable, but yet that massively changes everyone's understanding of a given system).

Bitcoin is volatile even at "higher" prices because it is still insanely underpriced. It will only become less volatile after it matures. This maturation process involves reaching equilibrium with other global markets that are still overpriced. The monetary premium on the multi trillion dollar global equities market, $100T real estate, and $100T sovereign debt markets is all going to be at risk of collapsing into the event horizon of bitcoin.

After the monetary premiums of these markets flows into btc, it will become stable.

Btc is a blackswan that even Taleb himself can't grasp even though it's staring him in the face.

Also, using a funny-money fiat measuring stick to measure btc "volatility" is a non-starter. Btc is the least volatile system there is. Every 10 minutes, 6.15 new btc. Tick tock, next block, regardless of who's in office and what their desired monetary policy is.

He literally wrote the book on anti-fragility, and when the most salient real world example of antifragility (bitcoin) is there, he somehow can't find the mental framework to understand or appreciate it.

We're still early.


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