Monday, March 29, 2021

Strategy: I'm out of anything that looks wonky right now.

BABA? Out. Too much uncertainty with China.

BND? Out. Bonds are being sold off like crazy and real yields are negative.

GE? Out. Going through a restructuring right now which seems to look promising, but they're doing wonky things like a reverse stock split that I don't like.

GME? Out. Yeah it might go to the moon, and Ryan Cohen might save it, but then again I might also be dead by the time any of that happens.

(I was holding all 4 of these at one point)

Other hypothetical examples: ARKK? Pass. If I had bought in 12 months ago, great play. But right now? It's not something I'm sure I want to be holding, and definitely don't want to be buying at this price. Cathy Wood did great, but her God talk is wonky to me and anyone who was heavy in tech had a great year, not just her. I don't know if I trust her abilities going forward.

ARKX? Pass, for same reasons plus I don't understand why she picked the stocks she did at all. Wonky. God talk, etc.

TSLA? Pass. Way too expensive right now even if future earnings might (keyword might) justify this P/E ratio. Too volatile, too.

XXII? Pass. You probably haven't heard of this one, but someone recommended them to me because they might be the future of smoking with their "zero nicotine cigarettes". That's just wonky, folks, even if there might be a small market for that, ugh, maybe.

Bitcoin? Out. Not a real currency and way too volatile and uncertain.

I probably triggered some people. Feel free to explain why I'm wrong about any of these.

And of course, no risk, no reward. So if you want to put a little bit into Bitcoin or Tesla, by all means. But my current philosophy is that we can just avoid all the wonkiness and go for the straight forward plays. You know, the Apples, Microsofts, Costcos, Phillip Morris, etc. Or hell, go ahead and stick it in VOO. I didn't, that's not my style, but it's a safer play than probably everything I listed at the beginning.

I'm new to this so take what I'm saying with a grain of salt. But I think I understand why they say that "most people lose money in the stock market". It's because they're always chasing performance (buying ARKK at ATH) and picking winners based off some vague notion like "Elon Musk and Tesla are the future". It's not smart, and it's a recipe for disaster.

If you are like Mr. Keith Gill and can truly identify deep value, more power to you. But you don't find deep value by buying the same stocks that everyone else is.

TL; DR: the markets are pretty weird and uncertain right now. So, IMO, why make things any more uncertain or wonky? Just stick with good businesses that will do well in the sort, mid, and long term.

Or do index funds. I chose individual stocks because with my picks I think I will be safer in the event of a correction. The market can be kinda wonky sometimes, too. But that's just my style based on my current risk tolerance.

So far I am slightly up on the month and on the YTD, with a look for the long-term.


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