WEEKLY TECHNICAL REPORT – 18 JULY 2021
WEEKLY SNAPSHOT
CPI (YoY) (Jun), U.K.
WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
14th JULY 2021 GBP and its subsequent pairs
WHAT HAPPENED: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
GBPCAD is trading in a downward channel, further downside can be seen in the coming days.
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun), U.S.
WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
16th JULY 2021 USD and its subsequent pairs
WHAT HAPPENED: Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered as a pace indicator for the U.S. economy.
NZDUSD is trading in the parallel channel, further upside can be seen if it breaks the channel upside and vice-versa.
BoC Interest Rate Decision, CANADA
WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
14th JULY 2021 CAD and its subsequent pairs
WHAT HAPPENED: Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short-term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. USDMXN is trading in the down channel, further downside can be seen in the coming days.
USDCAD is trading in the up channel, further upside can be seen if it breaks the channel upside and vice-versa.
Gold prices end lower, but climb for a 4th week in a row
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
GOLD
WHAT HAPPENED: Gold prices settled with a loss on Friday, pressured on the back of strength in U.S. Treasury yields, but prices still managed to end the week higher for a fourth week in a row. August gold fell $14, or 0.8%, to settle at $1,815 an ounce after settling Thursday at the highest in nearly a month. For the week, prices for the most-active contract still edged up by about 0.2%
GOLD is trading in the parallel channel; further upside can be seen if it breaks the channel upside and vice-versa.
Oil Has Worst Week in Months; UAE’s OPEC Deal Could Open ‘Can of Worms’
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
CRUDE OIL
WHAT HAPPENED:
Oil prices had their worst week in months even after crude prices edged higher Friday, as the market absorbed news that the United Arab Emirates had a deal with OPEC+ that at least one hedge fund said could open “a can of worms” on the cartel’s output.
New York-traded West Texas Intermediate crude, the benchmark for U.S. oil, settled up 35 cents, or 0.5%, at $72 per barrel. For the week though, WTI lost $2.56, or 3.4%. It was the largest weekly loss for U.S. crude since the week ended April 2.
London-traded Brent, the global benchmark for oil, rose 12 cents, or 0.2%, to finish the session at $75.55. For the week, Brent lost $1.96, or 2.6%, for its sharpest weekly decline since the week to May 14.
OPEC+ – which groups the 13 member Saudi-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with 10 other oil producers led by Russia – had initially failed to agree on August production levels after the UAE sought a higher baseline for measuring its output cuts.
WTI CRUDE OIL is currently in the upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.
Bitcoin Could See Q4 Rebound as Investors Hunt for Yield
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
BITCOIN
WHAT HAPPENED: Bitcoin’s fall from grace hasn’t quieted its supporters, who are confident the hunt for yield will land institutional investors at the popular cryptocurrency’s door as soon as fourth quarter.
“We’re looking at three volatile months, both up and down but I still think we’ll see $100,000 this year, probably in the fourth quarter,” Michael Venuto, chief investment officer for Toroso Investments, said in an interview with Investing.com.
This next big driver of demand that will ultimately revive the bull run for bitcoin won’t have anything to do with the popular cryptocurrency. In their hunt for yield, institutional investors will begin to seek out bitcoin and other cryptos.
Institutional investors are well versed in the hunt for yield, or the lack of it, especially in the bond market, where the low-rate environment has served up pitiful, and even negative returns.
But the big bet from institutional investors won’t be on the direction of bitcoin and other cryptos, but on the yield they can generate when loan out to borrowers.
BTCUSD is trading in a triangle, upside can be seen if it breaks the downside support.
5 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH OUT
Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun), U.K.
WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:
23rd JULY 2021 GBP and its subsequent
pairs
WHAT’S HAPPENING: Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
Initial Jobless Claims, U.S.
WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:
22nd JULY 2021 USD and its subsequent
pairs
WHAT’S HAPPENING: Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.
A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
Interest Rate Decision (Jul), RUSSIA
WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:
23rd JULY 2021 RUB and its subsequent
pairs
WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Bank Rossii decision on short term interest rate. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability.
A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the RUB, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the RUB.
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May), CANADA
WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:
23rd JULY 2021 CAD and its subsequent
Pairs
WHAT’S HAPPENING: Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in Canada, excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered a pace indicator for the Canadian economy.
A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.
Manufacturing PMI (Jul), GERMANY
WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:
23rd JULY 2021 EUR and its subsequent
pairs
WHAT’S HAPPENING: The German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector.
A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
EQUITIES IN THE COMING WEEK
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IBM (IBM) to announce its Quarterly Results on 19th JULY 2021, EPS estimated to 2.32 per share while revenue estimated 18.29B.
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Crown (CCK) to announce its Quarterly Results on 19th JULY 2021, EPS estimated to 1.78 per share while revenue estimated 2.97B.
3. Philip Morris (PM) to announce its Quarterly Results on 20th JULY 2021, EPS estimated to 1.54 per share while revenue estimated 7.64B.
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J&J (JNJ) to announce its Quarterly Results on 21st JULY 2021, EPS estimated to 2.29 per share while revenue estimated 22.52B.
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SAP (0NW4) to announce its Quarterly Results on 21st JULY 2021, EPS estimated to 1.2 per share while revenue estimated 6.67B
TOP COMMODITIES IN THE COMING WEEK
GOLD
SILVER
SILVER is trading in the parallel channel; further upside can be seen if it breaks the channel upside and vice-versa.
WTI CRUDE OIL
WTI CRUDE OIL is currently in the upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.
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