Triple Halving
Ethereum will undergo a triple halving, or a 50% * 50% * 50% = 12.5 percent drop in issuance, i.e. an 87.5 percent reduction in issuance, which is similar to three successive Bitcoin halving events. The forthcoming Triple Halving will almost certainly result in a price bubble, allowing ETH to rapidly surpass BTC in market cap. In this piece, I will describe two critical events that will lead to the triple halving, as well as why ETH will easily overtake BTC as the most prominent crypto currency.
- EIP-1559 will cause the first occurrence, which will most likely have the least impact of the two. EIP-1559 was enacted on August 5th, which means that 70% of Ethereum transaction fees would be destroyed indefinitely. The more people who use the network, the more fees are burned. With the implementation of EIP-1559, Ethereum is predicted to become net deflationary, with a negative yearly issuance of 2%. Over $100 million in ETH was burnt in just one week, which is ridiculous. With the release of EIP-1559, the drop in sell pressure represents a 30% reduction, representing little over half of one BTC halving.
- The second (and most important) reason would be the shift from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake (POS) (POW). To grasp what this entails, we must first comprehend Ethereum mining. Currently, miners are awarded around 12,800 ETH (equal to $39,000,000) per day for running the Ethereum network and keeping it secure. Because ETH is still in a Proof of Work system, the majority of this ETH gets dumped and sold into the market. Because the miners are in the cash business, they want cash for electricity, equipment, and payments to investors, among other things. So there is at least $39,000,000 worth of selling pressure on ETH per day. The ramifications of this transformation are that ETH will migrate from a mine and dump (POW) economy to a stake and restake economy (POS). POS encourages saving because the more ETH you have, the greater your monetary advantage; of course, people will still sell a lot of ETH, but most people will keep and restake their rewards over time, greatly lessening sell pressure.
- So now that you understand why the ETH triple halving will result in ETH being deflationary and having a 90% drop in sell pressure, we will explore why ETH will surpass BTC in market domination. First and foremost, price dictates story. A narrative can cause a price increase on its own. A big price increase in a narrative supports the narrative and causes a price explosion. The following incidents will persuade any investor that ETH is extremely safe money:
- Active accounts and transaction volume are skyrocketing.
- Low costs — The most serious issue with Ethereum is scalability, which is about to be resolved once and for all. Layer 2 implementation is underway, and transaction prices will be reduced in the future.
- Strong DeFi and staking yields
Now we must explore some of the primary reasons why the laid-out framework for the price of ETH to explode may be hampered. The road to ETH will not be easy, and it will almost certainly be fraught with delays and other unforeseeable occurrences.
- Scaling may fail to cut fees if adoption is too rapid, or if optimism is delayed or not adopted quickly enough by the major gas customers (Uniswap and Tether).
- POS is delayed — We're talking about ETH here, and this is a highly possible situation. POS is expected to arrive in late 2021, but will most likely arrive in early 2022.
- Transaction fees become so low as a result of scaling or a lack of usage (bear market) - If Ethereum scales too effectively, fee burns will have less of an influence on price.
TLDR: ETH already outperforms BTC in almost every important metric except market cap; with the EIP-1559 update and upcoming transition to POS, ETH will lose 90% of its sell pressure, or the equivalent of three BTC halvings, in a 12-month period, resulting in a price explosion that some predict could reach $150,000 by 2023.
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