Yuri Kim, Deputy FM of U.S.: Open Lachin & Agdam simultaneously and immediately, now!; allow ethnic Armenians to travel both ways via Lachin; Lachin is "non-negotiable"; provide internationally verifiable guarantees to ethnic Armenians; U.S. won't tolerate any attack on Armenians
The hearing was held in the U.S. Senate to discuss the humanitarian crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh caused by Azerbaijan's illegal blockade of the lifeline Lachin corridor.
MENENDEZ: People are dying from starvation. Miscarriages are up. There is no food on store shelves. Something must be done ASAP.
YURI KIM: We are deeply concerned by the continued closure of the Lachin corridor and the impact it's having on the people of Nagorno-Karabakh. This status quo is completely unacceptable. We will not stop working until we have a resolution.
That quarter must be open to commercial, humanitarian, and private traffic. We conveyed that message both publicly and privately to all levels of the Azerbaijani government on numerous occasions.
Access to baby food, medicine, food, and energy should never be held hostage. Secretary Blinken and many others have been intensely engaged in this issue to press for immediate and simultaneous opening of the Lachin corridor and other routes to humanitarian, commercial, and private traffic.
We welcome the news that a truck with 20 tons of supplies passed through the Agdam route into Nagorno-Karabakh. But that is not enough. Additional supplies from the Red Cross have been positioned for weeks just outside the Lachin and Agdam checkpoints.
Our envoy is in the region again to press for these supplies to be allowed in, immediately and simultaneously. President Aliyev and Nagorno-Karabakh representatives have agreed to this arrangement. There should be no more delay. No more delay. These supplies have been waiting for weeks.
It's also essential to achieve a more sustainable arrangement for the men, women, and children in Nagorno-Karabakh. In this context, we urge Azerbaijan to restore free transit of commercial, humanitarian, and passenger vehicles both in and out of the Lachin corridor, while we also recognize the importance of additional routes.
One of the challenges is the deep mistrust following decades of conflict. All sides must work constructively. We encourage Nagorno-Karabakh to accept the humanitarian trucks from the ICRC [via Agdam]. The only path forward is through dialogue and compromise to build trust.
The U.S. has an opportunity to combat the malignant influence from Russia, Iran, and China by achieving a durable peace in the region.
We will continue to support a peace agreement that's dignified and durable. We believe peace between AM-AZ will have cascading benefits in the U.S. national interests. A dignified and durable peace could facilitate regional energy security and boost transportation links, in turn improving the economic conditions of all countries in the region.
The U.S. could increase security cooperation and build the capacity of each country to preserve and protect its sovereignty and independence.
The rights and security of the ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh must be protected. This is an essential element of any durable and dignified peace agreement. Azerbaijan must provide internationally verifiable assurances and respect for Armenians' rights and their ability to remain in their homes and live without fear.
The U.S. will not countenance any effort or action to ethnically cleanse or commit other atrocities against the ethnic Armenian people of Nagorno-Karabakh. The current humanitarian situation is not acceptable. Humanitarian access to the Lachin corridor and other routes must be available now. We will do everything possible to make that happen.
MENENDEZ: 400 tons of goods used to enter through Lachin daily. There has already been a confirmed death from starvation. Do you share our and the World Court's assessment that the blockade may represent a real and imminent risk to the lives of Karabakh Armenians?
YURI KIM: Yes, we do. We share the sense of urgency.
MENENDEZ: Then why can't we do more to send humanitarian assistance and support the Red Cross?
YURI KIM: We've undertaken quite a lot of action on that front. We have been working non-stop, in person, and over the phone with all the different actors and parties to the conflict, day and night. I believe we were finally able to work with international partners to get the first truck through; it was a Russian truck. That traffic is now flowing. The agreement is that traffic through the Lachin corridor has to be open. All of us welcome the entry of that one truck through Agdam, but we also agree it's not enough, it's not enough. Lachin has to be open. Other routes can be opened too, but LACHIN MUST BE OPENED. That's non-negotiable.
MENENDEZ: One truck is not mercy. There are reports that Azerbaijan is also building up troops on AM-AZ and NK-AZ borders. Surely we can't trust Aliyev's words when he is withholding food while threatening violence. That's outrageous. I don't think we are bringing enough urgency to this situation. We should use the whole government to pressure Aliyev. How real are the fears of renewed war, and what are you doing to prevent it? Have we threatened Aliyev sanctions? Has the Pentagon told the Azerbaijani military to stand down? I have a problem with the waivers of Section 907. It is giving Azerbaijan a qualitative edge over Armenia's defense.
YURI KIM: Those are important and complicated questions. I've got a pile of papers listing all the phone calls we've made to send a very clear message:
(1) Lachin corridor MUST be opened, NOW. No more delay.
(2) We will not tolerate any military action or any attack on the people of Nagorno-Karabakh. That's very clear.
Technically, the war is not over between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It adds urgency to our commitment to support a durable and dignified AM-AZ peace agreement that takes into account the security of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The [Biden] administration has weighed in. Jake Sullivan hosted FMs of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Blinken has done several rounds of that. We've held multiple phone calls with the leaders to drive home those messages. We are beginning to see a little bit of movement but we're not going to rest until we see real results.
MENENDEZ: All of this just in pursuit of the 2020 ceasefire agreement. Azerbaijan made agreements. We are just asking them to live up to their agreements. Tell Blinken on my behalf that I would hate to see an ethnic cleansing of Armenians under this administration's watch. I raised this issue MONTHS ago about people dying and got a response: "Well, we are not sure about it." But people ARE already dying. How many more have to die? By waiving Section 907 we are giving Aliev an "OK".
RICKETTS: Armenia has been a defense partner of Russia since the fall of the USSR but mainly because Russia is the only game in the town. Given Russia's reluctance to intervene, Armenia is having second thoughts about its partnership. They are shifting towards the West. PM Pashinyan said that Armenia's reliance on Russia wasn't paying off as Moscow struggles to supply its own military let alone Armenia's. Armenia sent the first-ever humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The U.S. soldiers are in Armenia for military exercises. This is a setback for Russia, which has summoned Armenia's ambassador for complaints. Does Armenia's actions represent a permanent shift away from Russia or simply to pressure Russia to intervene more? What direction is Armenia going?
YURI KIM: It represents an opportunity for the U.S. to develop relations. Our military is currently in Armenia to conduct our first-ever bilateral military exercise with Armenia. We're going to continue to take advantage of that.
RICKETTS: Is Armenia moving away from Russia permanently, or is this a shot across the bow to Moscow to get them to pay more attention?
YURI KIM: It's too early to tell. BUT it doesn't mean the U.S. shouldn't jump in and turn it into exactly what we would like to see, which is a real decision to partner with us as opposed to Russia. To get there, the U.S. must be present. This is why our assistance to Armenia and partnership with Armenia counts so much.
RICKETTS: Are there concerns that Russia will respond forcibly if they see Armenia move towards the West?
YURI KIM: Yes, we are on the alert for that. Putin has proven himself to be vindictive.
RICKETTS: What's the strategy? How do we walk that line, to develop a relationship with Armenia without triggering a response from Russia?
YURI KIM: We've got to keep a close watch of the situation. We need to increase developmental assistance to Armenia, defense partnerships, security activites, and expand those as much as we can in a way that is acceptable to Armenians themselves. This cannot be a unilateral move. We have to do this in true partnership with Armenia and make sure we provide the support they need to make the turn.
RICKETTS: Armenia has allowed Russia to maintain access to microchips and electronics for war in Ukraine. Has Armenia's enforcement since improved?
YURI KIM: I believe Armenia has been observing those sanctions. We'll take that question and get back to you.
CARDIN: We must stand by our values. The humanitarian crisis is horrible. The U.S. must take decisive action. We must show that we are serious about this. When you routinely give the waiver on Section 907, you're saying that Azerbaijan has been following through with its obligations, which is not true. We lose credibility.
YURI KIM: The Section 907 waiver expired in June. We have not requested a new waiver because we are reviewing this situation very carefully.
CARDIN: The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been going on for WAY too long. We saw that U.S. leadership has been instrumental in ending other conflicts. U.S. leadership is desperately needed to find a resolution to this conflict.
YURI KIM: We agree. That's why we have a special adviser and we've been engaged for weeks, months, and years. That's also why Blinken is personally engaged.
MURPHY: I want to ask about the state of Russia-Azerbaijan relations. We've been trying to help the EU reduce reliance on Russian gas by using Azerbaijani gas [but Russia and Azerbaijan have been working together as energy partners.] Russia and Azerbaijan are drawing closer. What's the nature of that relationship? Did we make a wrong bet by relying on Azerbaijani energy?
YURI KIM: We have had an effective period of work with Azerbaijanis in helping them to double the amount of gas they will be bringing to Europe by 2027, from 10 bcm to 20 bcm. That corridor is extremely important for energy diversity. We need the Baku-Tbilisi-Jeyhun pipeline to continue to function. The main task is to enable our partners to break free of the Russian stranglehold.
MURPHY: But we are turning from one dictator to another dictator for energy. Are we funding Azerbaijan's efforts to impose a brutal blockade on the Armenian people? The ultimate goal should be to break free from oil and gas in general. Saudis and Russia are colluding to keep the oil prices high.
SHAHEEN: [what the hell is happening with Georgia?]
YURI KIM: Georgia used to be the poster child for the recovery and resilience after the breakup of the USSR. We have been discouraged to see democratic backsliding in recent years. We want to make sure that we keep democratic institutions front and center so that we are able to ensure that the Georgian government delivers on the will of the Georgian people, 85% of whom want to see their country in the EU. Sadly Joseph Borrell made clear that thus far Georgia has only met 3 of the 12 conditions to open up negotiations for EU membership.
Pashinyan's pivot towards the West; Who started Wagner rumors; Azerbaijani gas; Risky money & condos: Analysts disucss the recent events
KAREN SARGSYAN: What we see in AM-RU relations today is a process that began 1-1.5 years ago. The only difference is that while in the past Pashinyan would shy away from criticizing Russia during follow-up requests for "clarification", today he is doubling down on his criticism.
There are no tectonic changes yet but we have reached critical mass. There is no turning back. Kremlin won't "forgive" Pashinyan. Zakharova and Vladimir Solovyov have officially declared Armenia as the second Ukraine.
CHIBUKHCHYAN: During his interview with POLITICO, Pashinyan said that Russia not only cannot but also does not WANT to help Armenia. The host came prepared and wanted to find out whether Armenia has decided to change its vector. The reporter gave Pashinyan several opportunities to criticize the West but he instead thanked the EU border observers, while stating that more Western support is necessary to cover defense needs.
SARGSYAN: Changing Armenia's foreign vector is a difficult task. The steps we are seeing today indicate that "preparatory work" has been done by the Pashinyan administration.
CHIBUKHCHYAN: Do you believe the West has given any guarantees to Armenia? I'm under the impression that the border tensions were dulled as soon as Pashinyan called Schulz, Macron, Blinken, and Raisi.
SARGSYAN: Immediately after Azerbaijan's September 1 attack, Blinken called Aliyev. This was kept secret until September 6. Blinken didn't call Armenia and went straight for Azerbaijan. This is somewhat similar to the events last September when CIA chief Burns and Nancy Pelosi visited Armenia and told Aliyev to calm down.
I enjoyed Pashinyan's explanation of why he didn't bother to call Putin after these latest clashes. "Well, Putin knows everything, so what's the point."
Armenia is now the main focus of the EU's Eastern Partnership program because Georgia and Ukraine are [one level above]. There is also Belarus and Azerbaijan but they are viewed as "hopeless" cases. The focus is on Armenia.
The rest of Europe doesn't care if Azerbaijan is selling gas to Hungary or not. The 27 bcm gas they expect to import from Azerbaijan, which is a big "if" whether they will, would only cover 5%-7% of European needs.
Europe hopes that after the Russian defeat, they will resume trade relations with the new government of Russia. In my opinion, the EU will try to create a reparation scheme in which 50% of the revenue from Russian gas entering the EU via Ukraine will be paid to Ukraine instead of Russia, in the form of reparation.
There is also the possibility that Iran-EU relations will improve by then. All of this would further reduce Azerbaijan's importance to the EU. The Dummy of Absheron [President Aliyev] understands this very well. He understands that his good times end when Russia suffers defeat.
It's not like today the EU truly cares about Azerbaijani gas. The volumes are small. Today Azerbaijan's main goal is to convince the EU to respect Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. But the EU is saying "Fine, it's your territory, but this group must have rights and protections."
CHIBUKHCHYAN: I think the absolute majority of Armenians realize now that we cannot rely on Russia. Many even view Russia as a direct threat. Pashinyan finally understood this trend and that going against public opinion is not sustainable.
SARGSYAN: Pashinyan is late by 2.5 years. In 2021 some 35% of Armenians already wanted to join NATO, and only ~20% demanded Armenia remain in the EAEU bloc, and I'm not even talking about CSTO.
As for Pashinyan's recent pivot, which accelerated in May, could be because he has finally stopped listening to his pro-Russian advisers. The West had issued a warning to him in March-April not to help Russia evade sanctions on dual-purpose goods. That warning helped silence the pro-Russian wing of his advisers who, until that point, thought we could ride on both trains.
Don't you wonder why yesterday the government approved a law to require condo builders to spend only 25% of homeowners' downpayments before the condo is ready? These construction firms, these are mostly funds originating from Russia.
This is how it works: They come to Armenia, build a low-quality condo without seismic resilience, sell the apartments through mortgage, take the money before the finalization of the construction. They bring $1x to Armenia, collect $10x from the banks [mortgage], and either leave Armenia without waiting for the construction to finish or invest that money in the construction of new condo buildings. This creates a risky situation where families haven't moved into their homes yet while you're already spending the cash reserves on other projects. And on top of that, this is done by CEOs with shady moral values. I want to see the laboratory results of the company that certified the Norq district's new condos for an 8-point earthquake.
After the new law, they will have to freeze 75% of the collected funds while still earning interest on them. This is important for not allowing Russian arrivals to "launder" funds. We finally have people in the government who realize the risks associated with our ties to Russia.
Ilham Aliyev's good friend Kostin, the head of the Russian bank "VTB", complained that they will need to throttle the outflow of cash in dollars and rubles. He brought Armenia as an example.
[Russia has a shortage of dollars.] Russia strictly limits dollar outflow but allows the export of rubles. So a Russian can bring large quantities of rubles to Armenia, convert them into dollars through condo or other schemes, and take the dollar to Russia.
CHIBUKHCHYAN: Do you know anything about the supposed presence of Wagner fighters in Armenia?
SARGSYAN: That rumor was first spread last year by a so-called "political force" whose name I won't even mention. [My best guess is Karen Sargsyan is referring to another pro-Western force called "Bever", a collection of nationalist forces led by Sasna Tsrer. Despite both being pro-West they have terrible relations and call each other phony.]
SARGSYAN continues: Obviously there are no 12,000 or even 3,000 Wagner fighters in Armenia. Media literacy is poor in Armenia. Someone will take an obscure Russian-language small Telegram channel's rumors and circulate it widely. It's stinky.
nuclear-radiological experiment goes wrong, causing radioactive emergency in Azerbaijan
An Azerbaijani organization was conducting an experiment when it released radioactive Cesium-137 in the city of Sumgayit. Specialists with hazmat suits were deployed to identify the areas with high radiation.
source, [redacted]
Berlin Economics test study: the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border will have a positive impact on Armenia's economy
STUDY: Armenia's trade with Turkey would increase from 1% in 2021 to 10%, contributing to Armenian exports. The opening of the border largely meets Armenia's economic interests.
The opening of the border would lead to a change in Armenia's trade structure. Armenia would rely less on Russia, while the EU would increase its share.
Currently: 32% Russia, 18% EU, 15% China.
After: 20% EU, 14% Russia, 12% Turkey.
Top Armenian exports to Turkey: stones & jewelry $51m, food $47m, minerals $19m.
Armenia would export $185m (food, ore, jewelry) and import $678m (machinery, textiles, chemicals, medicine).
Some Armenian companies will benefit, while others will lose, "but overall the decision will bring more benefits to the country's economy." //
wife of prominent Russian blogger found dead in Armenia
Alexey Romanov (YouTube link) is a famous opposition blogger who left Russia and resides in ex-Soviet republics. His wife, also a Russian national, was found dead in their Yerevan apartment. The police have launched an investigation over a possible murder.
Yerevan's Patrol Police will have more female officers and hundreds of electric vehicles
PASHINYAN: EVs are becoming more popular in Armenia. This is great news. I recall our 2018 meeting in this cabinet [government session] when we were having a debate and the difficulty of convincing each other that EVs could succeed in Armenia.
Yerevan's Police Patrol is already using EV cars. We were eagerly waiting for their feedback. It has been positive so far but we'll wait longer before drawing conclusions. If all goes well, all future vehicle purchases will be EVs. This will then spread to provinces where the infrastructure allows it.
The first electric bus has joined Yerevan's public transport system this week.
Right now the main issue is with EV charging stations but I think the market will resolve this over time. There already are tools that fully charge a vehicle in under 40 minutes but many owners charge them at home. It takes all night but eventually they will have wider access to fast chargers outside.
MHER GRIGORYAN: We have to make sure that the EVs imported to Armenia with the help of import tax waivers aren't end-of-life junk that can cause additional headaches here.
PASHINYAN: Can't we require them to be no older than 7 years? Wouldn't the older batteries die and become an environmental problem?
MHER GRIGORYAN: There are motivational facts that discourage the import of old vehicles. It becomes pointless. But we can monitor the trends and take action if necessary. //
Yerevan's Police Patrol will hire 100 additional officers, 81% of whom will be women. The Government wants all 100 new vehicles to be EVs.
PASHINYAN: When we established the Police Patrol and attempted to involve more women, we had difficulty recruiting them so informational work was done to get in touch with women in various industries and even high schools because Patrol Police is a career opportunity.
We have 300 seats currently allocated for women. There are 600 female applicants with various backgrounds and 300 more from schools. //
The goal is to ensure that >30% of all Patrol officers are female.
volunteer women aged 18-27 will join short-term army conscription before receiving an offer to become long-term professional contractors
PASHINYAN: A female citizen can voluntarily join a 6-month conscription. Once she's approved, she will be required to serve all 6 months. This requirement is necessary so the defense ministry can properly calculate its available resources.
Upon completion, she will receive $2,500 [֏1m]. This reform aims to address two things:
1) We need more women in the army,
2) Open up new career opportunities for female citizens. Upon the completion of 6-month conscription, they will be offered to join as 5-year contractors as part of the Homeland Defender program.
The MOD is building a new facility with better living conditions for the female brigade. Since we are establishing a new institute in Armenia, everything will be done to ensure it starts off on the right foot.
There are no men, women, or children in the army, there are only soldiers. This should be the mantra. //
The first female voluntary conscriptions will begin in the winter of 2024.
military academy students with good performance will receive $450 in monthly scholarship
The decision was approved by the Government on Thursday. The base scholarship is $40/mo. It increases based on the student's grades and academic year.
A freshman with high performance can expect to receive $195/mo. It increases each year.
Since many of the students are teens with possibly bad spending habits, the government will freeze part of the funds until the student becomes an adult.
The MOD has been instructed to create a list of the best military academies around the world so the Government can decide how much funds to allocate to send Armenian students there. MOD said that currently Armenia receives a certain number of free slots from foreign academies to send students but they plan on sending more, so funds will be allocated for additional students.
seniors have made $110 million in digital purchases thanks to the new cashback program
The government wants seniors to spend their pension with a card instead of immediately cashing it out upon receiving the funds. It's part of a wider push to digitize the economy and combat tax evasion. Seniors receive a cashback for each digital purchase, with a monthly limit.
The additional digital turnover has reached $100 million over the past year, stated Pashinyan on Thursday.
over 200,000 Armenians owe large debts to banks; government wants to help them get out of it
PASHINYAN: Over 300,000 people working in the shadow sector cannot enter the legal net because of debt issues and arrests on their wages.
We have developed a scheme to help them get out of it. It will only apply to those whose problems are older than 3 years because we don't want to send a wrong message in terms of fulfilling bank obligations.
We will try to help these people through new collection mechanisms, which will be such that the citizens, having weighed the situation, will come to the conclusion that it is more profitable to repay bank debts.
This will apply to >200,000 people, 85% of whom are officially unemployed. Their debt rangers from ֏100k to ֏1m.
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