Sunday, December 31, 2023

Using Logarithmic Charts to Prophesize Bitcoin's Price is Ridiculous

If you've been in the space for a bit, you've heard that the logarithmic chart predicts "cycle highs" under a plateauing parabola.

There is no other traded asset that maintains a cult-like prophecy about a logarithmic chart that lays out cycle highs to the end of time. Tech stocks like MSFT, APPL, GOOG have logarithmic charts that are linear. The S&P (SPX, SPY) doesn't behave under a plateauing parabola either. Gold doesn't. Bitcoin does not have a mind of its own. There isn't a magical bitcoin spirit that has a plan that decides the price while we all watch in awe. It's all supply and demand by people. The only that changes the price is people pushing buy or sell, including people that work for institutions.

I really hope this magic logarithmic chart prophecy dies with some major invalidation event.

In my own opinion, the crashes came from major media FUD events, like the Nature article predicting bitcoin will boil the ocean, Elon selling, China bans, sudden waves of anti-bitcoin bs from the media, or gigantic inflows of FOMO traders that never even bought a stock in their life and sold it days after buying, and Fed policy.


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