Returning from Thanksgiving holiday, US traders who braved record cold temperatures on their office commute are in a sour mood, with S&P futures sharply lower, following the latest sharp drop in Chinese stocks, where as noted earlier the Shanghai composite lost the 2,600 level, tumbling 2.5% to one month lows after the WSJ reported Trump asked allies to boycott China's telecom giant Huawei.
The news dragged Asian shares lower, while Europe was mixed after the latest disappointing PMI which saw German Manufacturing and Services miss expectations, dragging the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI to 51.5, missing expectations of a 52.0 print, a 30 month low and the weakest since print since May 2016, while the composite index tumbled to the lowest level in 4 years in November.
Contracts on the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq all pointed lower, after Chinese equities led regional declines in Asia, with the technology sector weak on concern the U.S. is ratcheting up a campaign against Huawei Technologies. The result was a sharp drop in the Shanghai Composite, which slumped to levels last seen in late October, wiping out the recent rally.
In European trading, the preliminary PMI data dented hopes of an economic rebound into year end, sparking a rally in bunds and gilts, while 10Y TSY yields dropped to session lows of 3.04% after Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday. Euribor contracts pushed higher after officials flagged downside risks and data added to nerves ahead of the ECB’s December meeting. Meanwhile in Italy, BTPs printed fresh highs for the week on signs of a budget compromise. European equities were mixed, printing small gains after a steady open, largely ignoring trade war concerns, which weighed on Chinese stocks. Italy's FTSE MIB outperformed peers on renewed deficit discussion optimism and helping local banks rise over 1.5%. Technology and telecommunications stocks pared initial gains as equity gains are tempered by oil oversupply concerns, acting as a drag on energy/basic resources sectors
The dollar climbed and the euro reversed earlier gains as data showed German’s growth outlook weakened; the Euro slumped on renewed fears the slowing economy may delay any ECB balance sheet normalization while the pound handed back most of Thursday’s gains. In the latest Brexit news, Tory Brexiteer Iain Duncan Smith stated that the Brexit deal will be killed off by him and his Brexiteer colleagues in Parliament, while he is said to dismiss PM May’s efforts to adopt a tech solution to the Irish border problem and implied it is meaningless, according to ITV’s Peston.
Elsewhere, emerging market currencies and shares fell on renewed China trade concerns. Bitcoin declined and is on course to lose more than 20% this week.
Meanwhile, in commodities, WTI saw another sharp decline through $53, after energy minister Khalid Al-Falih said Saudi Arabia is producing oil in excess of 10.7 million barrels a day, more than in recent years, giving the strongest indication yet that the kingdom has boosted output to record levels. “We were at 10.7-something in October, and we are above that. We will know exactly when the month is over,” Al-Falih said. That said, he added that “we will not flood the market. We will not send oil that customers don’t need. And we’ve started doing that in December, and I expect we’ll continue doing that into the new year.”
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers warned earlier this month that oil markets will probably be oversupplied in 2019. Concerns that slower economic growth and a trade war could erode demand for oil are outweighing fears of potential shortages caused by U.S. sanctions on Iranian exports and supply disruptions elsewhere.
As a result, WTI has wiped out all modest gains observed in recent days, and was trading back at 1 year lows headed for its 7th weekly drop.
Falling energy prices are just one of several indicators that concern investors about the strength of global economic growth. Meanwhile, political turmoil in Europe, lingering uncertainty over a Brexit agreement and a trade war that’s engulfed the world’s biggest economies add to nervousness according to Bloomberg. Slowing growth is one of several prospects in the U.S. that may lead Federal Reserve to more caution in 2019 should they raise rates next month.
Elsewhere, base metals decline with LME copper 1% lower. EUR offered after PMIs to trade weakest levels this week, cable declines on broad USD strength.
In overnight geopolitical news, North Korea appeared to be expanding operations at its main nuclear site, according to the IAEA, while there were also reports that atomic agency inspectors are said to be demanding North Korea allow nuclear inspectors back into the country amid reactor activity concerns. China is to reportedly resume the purchase of Iranian oil in November after their waiver.
Expected data include PMIs. No major companies are scheduled to report earnings.
Market Snapshot
- S&P500 futures down 0.5% to 2,636.75
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 353.88
- MXAP down 0.05% to 150.61
- MXAPJ down 0.2% to 481.05
- Nikkei up 0.7% to 21,646.55
- Topix up 0.8% to 1,628.96
- Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 25,927.68
- Shanghai Composite down 2.5% to 2,579.48
- Sensex down 0.6% to 34,981.02
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 5,716.21
- Kospi down 0.6% to 2,057.48
- German 10Y yield fell 1.6 bps to 0.354%
- Euro down 0.2% to $1.1376
- Italian 10Y yield fell 1.6 bps to 3.082%
- Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.6 bps to 1.621%
- Brent futures down 1.2% to $61.84/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,223.00
- U.S. Dollar Index down 0.04% to 96.67
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- Following the weak German PMI figures, the euro-area composite index fell to the lowest in four years in November, denting expectations for an economic pickup after a summer slowdown. Adding to worries, the data also showed that employment and orders growth slowed and companies’ expectations dropped
- A Spanish official criticized the inclusion of an article in the Brexit text that his government believes has unacceptably blurred the issue of future talks over Gibraltar
- Some countries are frustrated that PM Theresa May is coming to Brussels on Saturday to see European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. The last pre-summit meeting of member-state officials is Friday -- and they don’t want anything to change after that
- U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have indicated they’re both ready for a highly anticipated meeting at the Group-of-20 summit next week. Trump told reporters that China wants to make a deal “very badly” after his administration placed tariffs on on about $200 billion worth of Chinese goods
- The Bank of England may need to increase interest rates at a quicker pace than currently envisaged by markets, according to policy maker Michael Saunders. Spare capacity in the economy has been used up, and, assuming Brexit reaches a smooth conclusion, inflationary pressures will probably build somewhat faster than officials predicted in their latest projections, Saunders said Thursday
- The Chinese consulate in Karachi was assaulted by militants on Friday in an attack that killed at least seven people in Pakistan’s largest city and financial hub. The incident is the second major attack this year on Chinese officials in Karachi, in a country that is one of the key partners in China’s Belt and Road initiative
- With Brexit in sight, Paris should become the next center for the clearing of interest-rate derivatives, said Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau
- Shoppers across the U.S. poured into stores for Black Friday at the traditional kickoff of the holiday gift-giving season
- A way out of Sweden’s political crisis is closing for the speaker of parliament. After his third pick to form a government threw in the towel on Thursday, speaker Andreas Norlen will need to get creative to break the gridlock caused by Sweden’s inconclusive election more than two months ago. He will hold a press conference at 10 a.m. in Stockholm on Friday
- It may take until February or even later for some of Iran’s biggest oil buyers to resume purchases after winning waivers from the U.S. as they seek to resolve complications over insurance, shipping and payments.
Asian stocks traded mostly lower with sentiment in the region subdued by trade concerns and holiday-thinned conditions in the US, while Japan and India also observed public holidays. ASX 200 (+0.4%) was positive with the index supported by strength in its top-weighted financials sector amid gains in Australia’s largest banks after Macquarie pulled-off a rarity at the banking royal commission in which it emerged unscathed and with its reputation enhanced. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (-2.5%) and Hang Seng (-0.4%) were negative amid ongoing trade uncertainty as China responded to the recent trade report by the US, in which it dismissed the accusations of unfair trade practices as groundless and totally unacceptable. In addition, the US called for its allies to stop using Huawei equipment and weak earnings results from Meituan Dianping in which the online service provider’s losses ballooned, further added to the glum. China responded to the recent US report in which it labelled the accusation by the US of China continuing with unfair trade practices as groundless and totally unacceptable, while it added that it hopes US drops rhetoric and behaviour that are damaging to relations.
Top Asian News - China’s Capital Controls Keep a Bad Year From Getting Worse - The World’s Best and Worst Markets Are Both in China This Year - China Railway Unit Said to Be Planning 30 Billion Yuan IPO - Apple to Offer Japan Carriers Subsidy to Up iPhone XR Sales: WSJ
After opening with little in the way of firm direction amid holiday thinned markets (US, Japan and India), European equities have posted modest gains with the EuroStoxx 50 higher by 0.2%. Leading the charge in Europe is the FTSE MIB (+0.6%) with Italian assets underpinned by optimism that the populist government could reign in some of their budgetary demands with reports suggesting that the EU Affairs Minister Savona could step down from his position (later denied) due to dissent over Italy’s intentions to violate EU budget laws. This also comes amidst a backdrop of increasing pressure from President Mattarella who wants the technocratic PM Conte to get a deal done with the EC, whilst other Italian press report highlight the need for Italy to increase the sincerity of Italy’s concessions to Europe. In terms of sector specifics, upside in Italian banking names has helped spur gains in European financials with the telecoms sector outperforming. To the downside, energy names lag, in-fitting with price action in the complex with crude seemingly unable to stem recent losses. Individual movers include Renault (+4.2%), who have been granted some reprieve from recent losses following a broker upgrade at Jefferies and as Nissan continue to reorganise their corporate leadership. Elsewhere, GEA Group (-14.3%) are lower after cutting guidance whilst Altice (-9.8%) continue to face selling pressure following yesterday’s disappointing market update
Top European News
- EU, U.K. See Free-Trade Area, Deep Regulatory Cooperation:Draft
- German Growth Slows More Than Expected to Four- Year Low
- Denmark Wants Danske Whistle-Blower to Explain His Testimony
- Ericsson Rises as Goldman Sees ‘Strong Competitive Position’
In currencies, the Dollar has benefited from the aforementioned relative weakness elsewhere, and the index is holding nearer the upper end of 96.394-751 parameters as a result, and on course to end the holiday-shortened week with a net gain, albeit modest having traded up to 96.898 and down to 96.037 at the other extreme. the Euro was not the most discounted major currency on offer, but cut price in wake of considerably weaker than forecast preliminary PMIs from France, Germany and the Eurozone overall. The single currency is now under 1.1400 vs the Usd and has broken the 10DMA to the downside at 1.1356, with fibs now being eyed ahead of 1.1300, while pivoting 0.8850 against the Gbp even though Sterling is also suffering in sympathy and jittery on Brexit issues following initial euphoria due to the UK-EU Political Declaration. CAD/NZD/AUD - Also going relatively cheap and underperforming against their US peer, with the Loonie back below 1.3200 amidst an even steeper slide in crude prices ahead of Canadian CPI and retail sales data. Meanwhile, the Aud has retreated through 0.7250 again and hardly helped by overnight developments as ANZ revised its RBA outlook to unchanged until August 2020, and the ASIC launched a probe of CBA for the alleged mis-selling of insurance products. Similarly, the Kiwi has lost grip of 0.6800 amidst speculation that the RBNZ could loosen mortgage restrictions as part of its FSR due next week. GBP - As noted above, the Pound has lost a bit more positivity after Thursday’s rally on the draft PD reached by Brexit negotiators given a mixed reaction to the details in UK political circles and ongoing doubt about approval by EU leaders. Cable is back below 1.2850 vs circa 1.2900 at best yesterday, albeit ‘comfortably’ above the recent 1.2785 low with decent bids noted at 1.2800. EM - Some consolidation at the end of a solid week for the likes of the Zar and Try that have both made potentially significant breaks of key levels at 14.0000 and 5.3000 vs the Usd respectively due to a combination of bullish technical and fundamental factors, ie the SARB ¼ point hike yesterday.
In commodities, WTI (-4.3%) and Brent (-2.6%) are on track for their seventh weekly loss with WTI prices briefly breaching the USD 52.00/bbl level to the downside while Brent lingers just above USD 61/bbl. Some traders are citing the recent decline to technical factors, while Saudi Arabia signalled that its output may have reached a record high of above 10.7mln BPD, and the kingdom’s Energy Minister Al-Falih noted that demand for oil will be lower in January 2019 compared to December 2018. This comes amidst the backdrop of this week’s EIA data which showed that US production remained at a record high of 11.7mln barrels, the most since at least 1983; according to government data. Therefore, the complex is suffering from a double whammy with supply glut concerns and weaker demand concerns weighing on traders’ minds. Oil fell into bear market territory this month after the US granted temporary waivers to eight countries in regard to Iranian oil, in turn pouring cold water on some supply concerns, while sources emerged this morning noting that China are to resume the purchase of Iranian oil in November after their waiver. Some analysts highlighted that due to complications over insurance, shipping and payments, it may take until February or later until some of Iran’s largest buyers such as South Korean and Japan resume purchases.
Elsewhere, gold (-0.4%) prices saw some downside after the yellow metal felt pressure from the firmer USD and copper weakened amid underperformance in China alongside a decline in Chinese commodity prices. Furthermore, China’s Dalian Exchange are to relax their risk management restrictions on some futures in an attempt to attract more investors to boost liquidity given the recent slump in iron ore prices.
US Event Calendar
- 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 55.7, prior 55.7
- 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 55, prior 54.8
- 9:45am: Markit US Composite PMI, prior 54.9
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