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Sunday, July 13, 2025
The Daily Market Flux - Your Complete Market Rundown (07/11/2025)
MarketFlux.io is a real-time financial news and analytics aggregator that gathers textual news from over 350 sources, providing instant insights and advanced filtering capabilities. With AI-powered sentiment analysis, historical search, and customizable filters, MarketFlux.io enables traders and investors to efficiently track market-moving events as they unfold. Visit Marketflux.io
Geopolitics Events
Trump Shocks Markets with 35% Canada Tariff Threat, Escalating Global Trade Tensions
In a shocking move that has sent ripples through global markets, President Donald Trump has announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, set to take effect on August 1, 2025. This decision marks a significant escalation in trade tensions between the United States and its northern neighbor, threatening to disrupt long-standing economic ties.
Stock Market Tumbles as Trump's Canada Tariff Threat Spooks Investors Ahead of Crucial Earnings Week
Rubio to Meet Chinese Counterpart Amid Rising Tensions and Trade Concerns
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to meet China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Malaysia amid escalating US-Chinese tensions. The meeting, occurring on the sidelines of ASEAN talks, comes as both nations vie for influence in Asia.
China and U.S. Boost Diplomatic Channels, Rubio Hints at Potential Trump-Xi Summit
In a significant diplomatic development, China and the United States have agreed to boost communication channels at all levels, as reported by Chinese state media CCTV. The agreement aims to improve discussions and cooperation in various areas while addressing differences between the two nations.
China's Foreign Minister Conducts Diplomatic Blitz, Seeks Improved Relations with Multiple Countries
China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi engaged in a series of diplomatic meetings in Malaysia, focusing on improving international relations. He met with counterparts from Australia, the UK, and Canada, emphasizing cooperation and mutual understanding.
US Reports Unexpected June Budget Surplus, Masking Underlying Fiscal Challenges
The US Treasury reported a surprising $27.01 billion budget surplus for June 2025, defying expectations of an $11 billion deficit. This marks a significant turnaround from the $71 billion deficit recorded a year ago.
Trump Blasts Fed Chair Powell's Performance as "Terrible"
President Trump harshly criticizes Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's performance, describing it as "terrible."
State Department Initiates Mass Layoffs as Trump Administration Reviews Federal Workforce
The Trump administration is implementing significant changes in federal agencies. The State Department is set to lay off over 1,300 employees, aligning with Trump's 'America First' agenda. Formal notifications to affected staff have begun, marking the start of a major restructuring.
Google Offers Cloud Discount to US Government Amid Tech Scrutiny
Google plans to offer discounted cloud computing services to the US government, according to Financial Times reports.
UK Economy Shrinks as Trump Escalates Global Trade Tensions
UK economy unexpectedly contracted in May, with GDP dropping 0.1%. This economic setback coincides with President Trump's expansion of trade conflicts.
Rubio Signals Likely Trump-Xi Summit, Highlighting Positive Relations
U.S. Secretary of State Rubio announces high probability of a Trump-Xi meeting. He emphasizes Trump's "very positive" relationship with Xi Jinping.
China and US Agree to Strengthen Communication Channels
China and the United States have reached an agreement to enhance communication channels at all levels, according to CCTV.
Trump Administration Reverses Course on FEMA Abolition Plan
The Trump administration has abandoned its plan to abolish FEMA, as reported by the Washington Post. This reversal comes after bipartisan pressure to maintain national disaster readiness.
Macro Events
Trump Shocks Markets with 35% Canada Tariff Threat, Escalating Global Trade Tensions
In a shocking move that has sent ripples through global markets, President Donald Trump has announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, set to take effect on August 1, 2025. This decision marks a significant escalation in trade tensions between the United States and its northern neighbor, threatening to disrupt long-standing economic ties.
Canada's Job Market Surges, Unemployment Rate Falls to 6.9%
Canada's labor market experienced a significant rebound in June, defying expectations and adding 83,100 new jobs. This marks the first increase since January and the largest rise this year. The unemployment rate dropped to 6.9% from 7.0% in May, beating forecasts of 7.1%. The participation rate also increased to 65.4% from 65.3%.
UK Economy Contracts in May Despite Quarterly Growth; Manufacturing and Trade Show Mixed Signals
The UK's economic indicators for May 2025 show mixed results. Monthly GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.1%, falling short of the forecasted 0.1% growth. However, the three-month GDP estimate rose by 0.5%, surpassing expectations.
ECB Officials Clash on Monetary Policy as Economy Shows Mixed Signals
ECB officials Panetta and Schnabel have presented contrasting views on monetary policy. Panetta advocates for continued easing, citing downside growth risks that strengthen the disinflationary process. He emphasizes the need for flexibility and pragmatism in the coming months, suggesting further rate cuts if weak growth weighs on prices.
Fed Chair Powell Reportedly Mulls Resignation, Markets Brace for Potential Shake-up
Breaking news has emerged that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is reportedly considering resigning from his position. This information comes from multiple sources, including the U.S. Federal Housing and William J. Pulte, chairman of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Fed's Goolsbee Warns New Tariffs May Delay Rate Cuts and Spark Inflation Concerns
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has raised concerns about the potential impact of new tariff threats on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. In a series of statements, Goolsbee emphasized that these tariffs could complicate the inflation outlook and potentially delay anticipated interest rate cuts.
French Inflation Edges Up in June, UK GDP Growth Beats Expectations
French consumer inflation data for June has been released, showing an uptick in prices. The year-on-year CPI rose to 1.0%, surpassing expectations of 0.9%.
Trump Blasts Fed Chair Powell's Performance as "Terrible"
President Trump harshly criticizes Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's performance, describing it as "terrible."
UK Economy Unexpectedly Shrinks, Defying Rebound Expectations
The UK economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in May, falling short of expectations for a slight rebound.
ECB's Panetta Calls for Flexible Approach, Suggests Rate Cuts if Growth Weakens
ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta advocates for a flexible monetary policy approach in the coming months. He suggests the ECB should consider further interest rate cuts if economic growth falls short of expectations and negatively impacts inflation.
Trump's Canada Tariff Threat Sends Stock Market Tumbling
The stock market is experiencing a significant downturn today, with major indices falling sharply at the opening bell. The Dow Jones dropped 300 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures also declined. This market turbulence is largely attributed to President Trump's threat of imposing a 35% tariff on Canada.
Trump Signals Possible Tariff Talks with Brazil; Lula Warns of Retaliation
President Trump indicates potential discussions with Brazil regarding tariffs. In response, Brazil's President Lula warns of retaliation if U.S. implements new tariffs.
Canada Delays Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Steel and Aluminum
Canada postpones implementation of counter-tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum imports, according to Politico.
Fed Official Urges Patience, Seeks More Positive Data Before Confirming Economic Stability
Fed's Goolsbee expresses caution about the economic outlook, emphasizing the need for anxiety to subside before feeling confident about a soft landing.
Trump Considers Tariff Talks with Brazil as Lula Warns of Reciprocal Action
President Trump hints at potential discussions with Brazil regarding tariffs, signaling a possible diplomatic approach to trade tensions.
Walmart Suppliers Halt Bangladesh Orders Amid Looming US Tariffs
Walmart suppliers in Bangladesh are pausing garment orders due to President Trump's threat of 35% US tariffs starting August 1.
European Markets Plunge as Trade War Escalates, Economic Worries Mount
European stocks tumble as Trump expands trade war. Markets react to tariff uncertainty, with Euro Stoxx 50 falling 1%.
Trump Administration Reverses Course on FEMA Abolition Plan
The Trump administration has abandoned its plan to abolish FEMA, as reported by the Washington Post. This reversal comes after bipartisan pressure to maintain national disaster readiness.
Crypto Events
Bitcoin Breaks $118,000 Barrier, Boosting Crypto-Related Stocks
Bitcoin surges past $118,000, reaching new all-time highs. The cryptocurrency's price surge drives up crypto-exposed stocks as investors embrace risk-on sentiment.
SharpLink Gaming Acquires 10,000 ETH Directly from Ethereum Foundation
SharpLink Gaming ($SBET) has made a significant move in the crypto market.
MicroCloud Hologram Makes Major Bitcoin Investment, Sees Significant Returns
MicroCloud Hologram Inc. has invested up to $200 million in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency-related securities derivatives.
BTC Digital Finalizes $1 Million Ethereum Strategic Reserve
BTC Digital, also known as BTCT, has completed the establishment of a $1 million Ethereum strategic reserve.
Technology Events
JPMorgan Demands Payment from Fintechs for Customer Data Access
JPMorgan announces that fintech companies will be required to pay for access to customer data.
Intel Spins Out AI Robotics Venture RealSense with $50M Funding
Intel is spinning out its AI robotics and biometrics venture, RealSense, with a $50 million Series A investment.
Gorilla Technology Unveils Massive Pipeline, Partners with NVIDIA
Gorilla Technology announces a $5.6 billion global pipeline across 87 opportunities. The company becomes an official NVIDIA solutions provider, expecting to close $1.3 billion in contracts by mid-2026.
Huawei Challenges Nvidia with New Flexible AI Chip Design
Huawei is developing a new, flexible general-purpose AI chip design. This move aims to compete with Nvidia and break its dominance in China's AI market.
Corporate Actions Events
Kraft Heinz Explores $20 Billion Spinoff in Major Restructuring Plan
Kraft Heinz is reportedly planning a major restructuring, considering spinning off a significant portion of its grocery business. The potential spinoff could create a separate entity valued at up to $20 billion.
Musk's xAI Aims for Staggering $200 Billion Valuation in Fundraising Effort
Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company, xAI, is reportedly seeking to raise funds at a valuation of up to $200 billion.
Oil And Gas Events
BP Reports Mixed Q2: Higher Output and Strong Trading Offset by Lower Energy Prices
BP reports a mixed Q2 performance. Production increased and oil trading delivered strong results, but lower energy prices impacted revenues. Refining margins improved, yet a potential $1.5B asset write-down looms.
US Energy Department Taps Strategic Reserve to Aid Gulf Coast Fuel Supply
The US Department of Energy has approved an exchange from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve with ExxonMobil. This move aims to address logistical challenges affecting crude oil deliveries to Exxon's Baton Rouge refinery.
IEA Boosts Oil Supply Forecast, Cuts Demand Growth Estimates in Latest Report
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its latest monthly report, revising forecasts for global oil supply and demand.
Global Oil Market Tightens as Russia Considers Gasoline Export Ban and Saudi Boosts Production
The global oil market is showing signs of tightening, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Despite apparent stock builds, price indicators suggest a tighter physical market, with prompt time spreads in steep backwardation and healthy refinery margins.
Crude Oil Prices Surge as US Oil Rig Count Declines
WTI crude oil futures settled at $68.45 per barrel, up $1.88 or 2.82%. Brent crude futures also rose, settling at $70.36/bbl, up $1.72 or 2.51%.
US Oil Rig Count Dips as Price Uncertainty Persists
Baker Hughes reports a decline in US oil rig count to 424, down from 425 previously. Key shale basins show minimal changes, with Cana Woodford seeing a decrease of 3 rigs.
Saudi Arabia Breaks OPEC+ Quota, Boosts Oil Production Amid Regional Tensions
Saudi Arabia has significantly increased its oil production in June, surpassing its OPEC+ quota. This rare breach comes as a surprise, given Saudi Arabia's history of criticizing other members for overproduction.
Oil Prices Rebound Amid Geopolitical Tensions, Despite Demand Concerns
Oil futures recover some losses from the previous day, driven by geopolitical risks and tariff delays. Prices rise, putting petroleum futures on track for weekly gains.
Metals Events
Canada Delays Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Steel and Aluminum
Canada postpones implementation of counter-tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum imports, according to Politico.
Healthcare Events
MiNK Therapeutics' Cancer Breakthrough Sends Stock Soaring
MiNK Therapeutics announces a breakthrough in cancer treatment. Their allogeneic iNKT cell therapy, agenT-797, achieved complete remission in a patient with metastatic testicular cancer.
FDA Rejection Hammers Biotech Firm, Novartis Loses Patent Case
Capricor Therapeutics faces a major setback as the FDA rejects its Duchenne muscular dystrophy drug application. The company's shares plummet in response to this unexpected decision.
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Cake Wallet onboards dEURO decentralized stablecoin with 10% yield on collateral
Cake Wallet added the decentralized stablecoin dEURO to its offerings, expanding its stable euro-denominated digital assets for users. The decentralized stablecoin is overcollateralized by other digital assets, including Bitcoin, Ether and Monero. This means that to mint the dEURO stablecoins, users must first deposit other cryptocurrencies as collateral. Overcollateralizing, or depositing cryptocurrency worth more than the value of the asset being borrowed, acts as a shield against de-pegging events. The dEURO offering also features automatic liquidations, which occur when loan-to-value ratios drop below a certain threshold. Cake Wallet says users can earn 10% yield from crypto holdings backing the stablecoin, without giving up custody of their funds. The yield is generated from stability fees paid by depositors minting the stablecoin and deposited into an equity reserve pool. This helps maintain the stability of the stablecoin and adds liquidity to the user’s crypto holdings, allowing them to generate a euro-pegged token without selling their crypto. Decentralized and algorithmic stablecoins are promising use cases consistent with the early cypherpunk ethos of the crypto community.
My Review on Thinking Fast and Slow + Connections with other books and ideas
This is a summary of my personal notes on Thinking Fast and Slow. I took notes for every chapter and connected with other concepts from other books.
First this book has a LOT of redundant content and could have easily been half the size. But here’s the thing: the information is so incredibly valuable that I can’t give it anything less than 5 stars.
Kahneman exposes how our minds trick us in ways we don’t even realize. It’s a dense journey, but the takeaways fundamentally change how you see the world and yourself. This isn't just a book review; this is a full dissection of the concepts that stuck with me, complete with all the connections I made.
The Two Systems: The Lazy Master and the Eager Slave
Everything starts here. We have two systems. System 1 is fast, always active, and automatic. You can’t stop it from reading a sentence you see. It’s your gut reaction. System 2 is the slow, deliberate, energy demanding thinker. It’s what you use to solve a complex math problem or control your anger. You can feel the effort; your pupils literally dilate, a clear sign of cognitive load.
But System 2 is lazy. It gets easily overloaded, like in the gorilla experiment where you miss the obvious because you’re focused on something else. The craziest part is the rationalization. Most of the time, our "rational" System 2 isn't making a decision; it’s just stepping in to justify whatever impulsive bullshit System 1 already decided. It thinks it’s the hero, but it’s just the press secretary.
The Illusion of Understanding: We Believe Our Own Bullshit Stories
What really struck me was the illusion of understanding we all suffer from. We are story animals. We crave coherent narratives, a perfect example of the Narrative Fallacy. We create neat stories about why things happened, but we completely ignore what didn't happen, which is often more important.
This explains the Illusion of Validity. Our confidence isn't a measure of accuracy; it just reflects how coherent and convincing our internal story is. I saw this firsthand in the book's story about the Israeli army leadership test—they were super confident in a framework that was barely better than random chance. Confidence is a feeling, not a fact.
This bleeds into everything. We judge decisions based on their results (Outcome Bias) instead of the process. We slap a halo on successful people and horns on failures (Halo and Horn Bias), judging all their traits by a single outcome. A CEO gets credit for success that is largely luck, and we call him a visionary. And don’t get me started on business books. They’re mostly incentive driven garbage, selling success recipes that are just stories of luck and Regression to the Mean. The data shows a good CEO’s impact is only about 10 percent. The rest is noise.
Our brains even rewrite the past. Hindsight Bias means we update our view of the past with new information, making events seem obvious in retrospect. As I learned from A Theory of a Thousand Brains, our view of the past is constantly changing. The only way to see our real past ideas is to write them down, which is a huge reason I journal.
Our Brains Suck at Math: The Statistical Traps We Can't See
Our brains are terrible at statistics. We fall for the Law of Small Numbers all the time, seeing patterns in tiny samples that are just random noise. The Bill Gates Foundation did this when they invested billions in small schools because they had the best results, completely ignoring that small schools also had the worst results. They didn't use inversion to see the full picture. Smaller samples just have more extreme variance.
This is the same reason for the Linda problem. A detailed, plausible story about Linda being a feminist makes us think it's more probable she's a "feminist bank teller" than just a "bank teller," even though it’s statistically impossible. Our brain confuses plausibility with probability. It’s also why we’d value a set of 10 perfect cups more than a set of 12 that includes the same 10 perfect cups plus two broken ones. Less is more.
Then there’s Regression to the Mean. Extreme events tend to normalize. The story of the pilot instructors who believed yelling at a pilot after a bad performance worked was a perfect example. The pilot wasn't improving because of the yelling; his performance was just statistically likely to be closer to his average the next time. Our brains want a causal story, but sometimes it’s just math.
Heuristics and Biases: The Mental Shortcuts That Lead Us Astray
The Availability Bias chapter was eye opening. We use mental shortcuts, or heuristics, all the time. We overestimate the probability of recent or vivid events, like terrorist attacks, just because they come to mind easily. This can lead to an Availability Cascade, where media reports on a minor risk create public panic, which creates more media reports, until we’re making policy based on fear instead of facts. The apple cancer scare is a perfect example where the "cure" was worse than the disease.
And it has a bizarre side effect: asking someone to retrieve twelve examples of their own assertive behavior makes them feel less assertive than if you asked for only six. The difficulty of retrieving the last few examples dominates their perception. It’s so counterintuitive but makes perfect sense.
Then you have the Anchor Effect. That first number you hear in a negotiation has a ridiculously powerful pull, just like Chris Voss explains in Never Split the Difference. Our brains use it as a reference point and don't adjust nearly enough.
The Focusing Illusion is another big one: when we think about something, it gains immense importance. Ask people about their happiness, then ask about their marriage, and their overall happiness score will change. We overestimate how much material things will make us happy because we focus on them when we think about them, but we don't actually think about our car that much in daily life.
Prospect Theory: We're Not Rational, We're Relative & Afraid of Loss
The book demolishes the idea of the rational "Econ." We aren’t absolute; we are relative animals, as Charlie Munger would say. Bernoulli’s theory of utility was a good start, but it missed the most important piece: the reference point. Our decisions are driven by changes from our baseline, not absolute states.
This is the core of Prospect Theory. We feel the pain of a loss about two to three times more than the pleasure of an equivalent gain. This asymmetry explains so much. It’s why the framing of a question changes everything. When a problem is framed as saving 200 people, we become risk averse and take the sure thing. When it's framed as 400 people dying, we become risk seeking to avoid the sure loss, even if the outcomes are identical. Neuroscience shows this: the emotional choice lights up the amygdala, while the rational one requires the frontal cortex to work harder.
This also explains the Sunk Cost Fallacy and why we’re so bad at "keeping score." We don't just see money as utility; we see it as personal merit. We hate closing a "mental account" with a loss. This happened to me with crypto. I’d sell Bitcoin for a quick profit but hold onto losing micro coins, hoping they’d turn around. The rational move is to sell the losers and keep the winners. It's a lesson I'm glad I learned early. The fear of regret is a powerful, irrational force.
The antidote is to adopt a Broad Lens. A single coin flip to win $200 or lose $100 is unattractive. But if you were offered that bet 100 times? You’d take it every time. As the Stoics taught, and Taleb preaches, you have to see each decision as part of a larger portfolio. That's why I'm adding a question to my decision template: "If I could make this decision 100 times, how would that change my choice?"
Intuition: Experts, Formulas, and When to Actually Trust a Gut
This section was incredible. First, the chapter on Intuitions vs. Formulas might be one of the best I’ve ever read. Study after study shows that simple algorithms, using just five or six equally weighted variables, consistently outperform the intuition of human "experts." They even beat complex regression models. Why? Simplicity is robust. Fewer dimensions mean less noise, a perfect example of Occam's Razor.
So when can you actually trust expert intuition? Only under specific conditions. Intuition is just rapid pattern recognition, and it only works in an environment that is regular and predictable, with endless opportunities for practice, quick and clear feedback, and real skin in the game. A chess master or an anesthesiologist? Trust their gut. A stock picker or a political pundit predicting long term outcomes? Not so much. Their environment is too random and the feedback loops are terrible.
The Two Selves & Well-Being: Your Memory is a Lying Tyrant
This concept ties it all together. We have two selves: the Experiencing Self that lives in the moment, and the Remembering Self that tells the story afterward. And the Remembering Self is a tyrant. It doesn't care about the duration of an experience; it only cares about the peak (the most intense moment) and the end.
This is the Peak End Rule. It’s why a longer colonoscopy with a less painful ending is remembered as "better" than a shorter one. It’s why my mom was right about public speaking: you HAVE to optimize the start and the end. I used to optimize the beginning and middle of my pitches, but fuck the endings. No more.
It’s also why I started journaling. I realized my memories were mostly false narratives built around emotional peaks and how things ended. This might even explain why a 9 to 5 job feels so soul crushing, as the "U-Index" of suffering shows. There are no peaks, just a flat line. Having a boss sucks. A startup, on the other hand, gives you terrible lows but also incredible highs, and your Remembering Self loves those peaks. It's a better way to live for "memory happiness."
As Seneca said, “A life is like a play: it’s not the length, but the excellence of the acting that matters.” Our Remembering Self is the ultimate critic of that play.
Yes, Kahneman could have been more concise. But the insights about our cognitive biases are so fundamental to better thinking that the redundancy is forgivable. This book will change how you see your own decision making process, and that’s worth wading through every single page.
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