Tuesday, August 3, 2021

Buy the rumor, sell the news.

Give me a chart and I'll give you news to fit it.

Past 2 weeks price movement on Bitcoin may have been due to ethereum price action. Amazon news/Amazon news shut down and binance news prob contributed but in my opinion less.

Crypto usually follow each other. The usual leader is bitcoin. However on rare occasions ethereum leads the charge. Historically ethereum hard forks have caused significant price action on ethereum couple weeks leading up to the fork. And as a result making other cryptos follow. I type this thinking in large part to Byzantium hard fork in October 2017. This is very much supported on the current chart. Though Ethereum volume is not exceeding bitcoin, it's very close and much higher than "normal". And compared to bitcoin from the local low, ethereum have had a much bigger pump % to the local high.

The above is stating the obvious. The prediction following is...... dump coming.

Depending on what chart you are looking at bitcoin had a 10 day green. Ethereum had a 13 consecutive green day. Ethereum Hard fork is launching on the mainnet today/tomorrow depending on where u live. Historically price should have already dumped before the launch (the tiny drop is not what I consider a dump) .

This isn't like the release of a positive earnings report. Even if the launch is successful (which it generally is) price should dump in this time frame significantly. So in the next 72 hours or so I'm predicting a significant price drop. Looking at recent supports price should drop from just over $2500 (current price) to sub $2200 to $1800.

I don't know the fundamental reason. I'm assuming its is because hardfork event is priced in now, after event catalyst is gone people will take profit thinking everyone else will take profit and dump the price as per history.

If this plays out this should have a carry on effect on bitcoin taking its price to sub 33k to sub 30k.


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