Saturday, July 19, 2025

Attention Defense

I spend a great amount of time on the internet. Sometimes it’s mindless scrolling, sometimes it’s for finding specific information but often times I scroll the internet to observe the world.

Who is posting these days? What is being posted these days? And most importantly, how are people reacting to the posts?

Over the last few months (I can’t believe it’s not years, cuz it certainly feels like years) there have been a vibrating amount of hot topics on the internet. I name it vibrating because if a big story was coming up every few days or so, it would be like the stories are pulsating. These days the frequency at which the new stories are coming up is so high, it feels like vibrations.

Firing! Zelensky! Defunding! Raiding! Tariffs! No tariffs! No Kings! Lawmakers being assassinated! Epstein! Bitcoin! Israel! The list goes on and on and the consequences of each story stop mattering now because we have about 5 new events that pop up while we wait for the consequences.

It is important to recognize that our attention is being dragged away every time something new comes up. And because the rate of these events are so fast it is more and more taxing to our energy reservoir to keep up with recent events. And at this point I need to say something a bit extreme: your attention is being grabbed by the *****.

But just like how you need to be able to defend yourself in the face of physical harm, we must also be able to defend ourselves in the face of disinformation and attention theft. Your attention is a very treasured resource. Attacking your attention is the first entryway into attacking all the other parts of you.

I wrote about how I got street-scammed in Paris. If someone took my money in plain sight, there’s no way I would let that happen. But what if my attention is taken away? That’s precisely what the scam artists did.

I recently went to a series of magic shows. And what do all magic shows start with? Misdirection. Same with street hypnosis. When people have your attention, they practically gain an entryway into you. This is why hooks are so important in marketing.

My wife attended a self-defense class and the class started by the most important principle of self-defense: don’t get into situations where you need self-defense by staying aware of your surroundings.

When you don’t have your attention, you’re not living your life. But it’s not all bad news. The good news is that when you cultivate your mindfulness and get used to staying in touch with your inner awareness, you will develop a kind of a spider-sense when your attention is drifting away.

How can you not? Every day when you meditate you’re practicing coming back to your point of focus. And you can only do that if you notice when your attention is being drifted away. Sometimes you’ll still lose your attention, like I did in Paris, but we all need to experience some learning curves one way or another. You’ll do a lot of damage reduction by keeping in touch with your attention.

One nuance to keep in mind for these times: I heard a sentence recently, “when you watch the news you’re misinformed; when you don’t watch the news you’re uninformed”. This sounds like something relevant for these times but it is actually timeless, the fact that watching the news is getting a snapshot of reality instead of the whole reality.

You can totally watch the news and understand the bigger picture by zooming out of the frame of someone is speaking about something, into observing that something and that someone. What has happened, in terms of observable events? Why did this happen, more specifically — what were the conditions that gave arising to this? What preconditions were required for this to happen?

Why is this person in particular speaking about this? Why would they speak in these terms, with these tones? What is the need for this message to come out? These analytic questions can help you understand the grand flow of world events instead of piecewise skewed representations of said world events.

Your mind is the most important treasure you have access to. Protect it, defend your attention.


Global Bitcoin Forecast retrospective analysis July 13–20,2025

I’m excited — genuinely excited — to release the very first retrospective analysis!

This isn’t just a look back at the Bitcoin price action of July 13–20, 2025.
It’s something I’ve wanted to do for a long time:
to hold my own created and forged system up to the light, to compare it against the world’s leading forecasts,
and to ask — without ego, without excuses — where it stood, where it slipped, and where it will sharpen.

This retrospective is not just a review;
it’s the birth of an audit culture inside Bitform.

We’re not here to predict magic numbers.
We’re here to map tensions, trace fractures, weigh probabilities — and learn, live, and publicly.

What follows is a full-spectrum analysis:

  • how Bitform mapped the July compression zone,
  • why it underweighted the bull breakout,
  • and how it stacks up against models like Glassnode, Cointelegraph, Bloomberg, and others.

This is the start of something new:
not just forecasting — but structural decoding that holds itself accountable.

Global Bitcoin Forecast Review: July 13–20,2025

The week of July 13–20 was not just a market event — it was a structural ignition.
Crypto Week in the U.S. passed landmark legislation; institutional ETF flows hit records; Bitcoin surged past $123,000 before retracing.

Bitform’s forecast called the compression zone and breakout scenario perfectly, but was too conservative in weighting the probability of a bull surge.

This article delivers a full retrospective — and ranks Bitform alongside the world’s top forecasting models.

🧩 What Bitform Got Right

✅ Identified the $117k–$118k compression zone
✅ Mapped the bull case scenario: if the GENIUS, CLARITY, and Anti-CBDC bills passed, institutional momentum would break BTC to ~$122k–124k
✅ Recognized ETF inflows as an amplifier
✅ Flagged derivative tension via rising open interest
✅ Embedded bias checks and probabilistic honesty in the forecast

⚠ Where Bitform Underweighted

❌ Probability: Bull case was given 25–30%, when converging signals mid-week (legislation + ETF + derivatives) justified a 50%+ reweighting
❌ Leverage scale: Open interest surged ~16%; funding rates spiked to ~0.0189% — bigger than forecasted
❌ Profit-taking magnitude: Miner and whale sell-offs were stronger than modeled

Truth Protocol – Blindspot Analysis

Strengths:

  • Multi-layer architecture (on-chain, derivatives, macro, psychology)
  • Clear scenario maps with conditional triggers
  • Bias disclaimer and probabilistic humility embedded

Weaknesses:

  • No live adjustment as ETF flows + legislation + leverage over-converged
  • Underweighted momentum amplification loops (ETF → spot → derivatives → sentiment)
  • Conservative psychological modeling (ignored conviction-layer resilience)

Strategic Evolution

Dynamic Reweighting Module
→ Real-time scenario probability recalibration when multiple super-signals align

Amplification Engine
→ Quantitative modeling of how spot, derivatives, ETF, and sentiment feedback loops magnify moves

Ignition Flag System
→ Hard-encoded triggers for binary catalysts like regulatory or macro breakthroughs

Compared to Global Forecasts:

https://preview.redd.it/p3txaasuvwdf1.png?width=957&format=png&auto=webp&s=b6b95bcc5e7b9ceea50d0836b5a5cdc7b3f3fc33

Reflection

https://preview.redd.it/rvnpldowvwdf1.png?width=1003&format=png&auto=webp&s=716793a029dcd27813bddb88de362fd64e367c0c

The July 13–20 forecast was not a “miss” —
it was a near-perfect map with conservative probability assignment.

Where others cheered price, Bitform mapped pressure points.
Where others screamed targets, Bitform warned of fractures.

Bitform stands where price, pressure, and perception meet.
Its forecasts are not crystal balls — they are structural compasses.
And every audit sharpens that compass further.

Its edge? Not perfection. Radical reflexivity.

I Do this alone with my own system and my neurodivergent mind.

I don´t now if I can share my link here to my substack account Bitform. I was never active on reddit. If yes. Tell me =)


Bristol Crypto Community?

Hi all,

Recently moved to Bristol from London.

In London, the crypto scene is the biggest in the UK - with weekly events from different companies, in person exchanges happening constantly. I myself would exchange cash to crypto often.

But, in Bristol, it’s quite the opposite. Pretty quiet, as far as I have seen from google. Only one event I noticed - BitcoinBristol. But apart from that there is not much else, unless I am missing something!

If anyone here is involved in the crypto scene, would be nice to see some comments!