Saturday, December 4, 2021

To everyone who has joined within the last two years: all of these 'crypto fear index' posts are misleading

We are not in "extreme fear".

  • The sub is still active.

  • People are still jovially posting how they are 'buying the dip'.

  • Bitcoin is still up on the 3 month and 6 month trends.

  • The suicide hotline has not been stickied to the top of the sub.

For the benefit of those who haven't been around for the previous crashes and prologued contractions that the crypto market has been through, we're more in "moderate concern" at the moment - potentially driven by the Evergrade announcement yesterday, I won't be surprised if we see a wobble in equity markets on monday as well.

It CAN get worse.

And in all likelihood, it will get worse at some point in the future.

When it does:

  • the sub will drop in active users.

  • People will be posting about how they don't have any more money to buy the dip.

  • The suicide hotline will be stickied.

  • The sentiment will change to become overwhelmingly negative, and it will stay that way for months, possibly years.

I say this because this is what has happened during every significant retraction we have seen so far and History loves to repeat itself.

If you are panicked due to the events of the last 5-6 hours then take that as a sign that you have violated the age-old maxim of having invested more than you are willing to lose. Accept that in an exuberant market detached from fundamentals, DYOR'ing means next to nothing and that 'holding a diversified portfolio of multiple cryptocurrencies' is next to useless in terms of hedging against risk.


No comments:

Post a Comment