Based on the BTC mined as reported here: https://www.riotblockchain.com/investors/news-events/press-releases
Holding everything constant from Q3 to Q4 except the following:
- Mining revenue adjusted for the average of the high and low price of bitcoin for the month multiplied by the coins mined as announced. More than likely this will then be low for October and November but about right for December.
- Hosting revenue increasing by 50% since the $11,193,000 in quarterly revenue on 200 MW of capacity is just about what the $.025 KWh contract that Whinstone had with the power company (Approx $10.9M per quarter for energy costs and a total cost of revenue of $12.5M). I am building in a margin since I don't think that they are idiots that would run a loss leader.
- Removing non-cash C Suite compensation of $36,000,000.
- No Unrealized losses to report since Q4 YE bitcoin value exceeded Q3 bitcoin value, so they didn't need to adjust their mined pool.
- Adjusting for YE Bitcoin value on their derivative since the value fell in November and December.
I'm not smart enough to know whether that is under the Derivative Loss or Unrealized Loss. Either way it should be the same negative impact to net income.
My results are as follows:
Q4 Net Income of $56,479,740
Q4 Net Income per Share (116.8M shares) $0.48
Full year 2021 per Share Net Income of $0.65 (vs -$0.30 in 2021 and -$1.02 in 2019)
What I believe will impact this is the following: total share dilution wasn't completed until Q4 had started so I think the share count is higher.
The good news is that if bitcoin holds where it's at JAN and FEB derivative/unrealized losses are negligible which will be a welcome change to their Q2 ER. If bitcoin can reclaim and hold $50,000 by 3/31 then there may be no derivative or unrealized loss?
Average estimate has it at $.12 per share for the quarter here: https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/RIOT/earnings-estimates .
Where I need help is how to account for their 12/27 bitmain purchase where they plunked 35% down for a $200M order. Is any of that an income charge? And then without scouring through their 8-Ks, did they make any other substantial bitmain purchases in Q4 that would have the same effect?
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