This is a TLDR Report version, for the most recent regular non TLDR report edition (that explains what the DCI30 is, etc), see:
https://www.reddit.com/r/DorothysDirtyDitch/comments/z2z3sy/dci30_report_11232022_post_fed_speakies/
Not much has changed since. (Except for the CryptoVerse imploding & SBF getting locked up sans vegan fare-you know, small scale stuff.)
At present I am 20% short, 80% long.
Longs are kept on a very short leash-I expect to fully exit today.
ATOM (the coalmine canary) Tide has already turned heavy negative, and ETH is on the edge of turn as well.
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TLDR: same speaky as yesterday, until item 1.1 below.
I am of the camp that believes the SBF Follies have not yet gotten "properly" underway. Perhaps they won't, though I doubt that. Binance is experiencing massive withdrawals, and the party looks pretty over. The US FEDS are on a witch hunt rampage now, and the press is selling this hard (negative) at every op. Not good gang. This time IS different, in so many meaningful ways.
Lacking a crystal ball, I have no idea on event or timing. All I can do is watch the data, and see if the narrative unfolds. We can limp along like this for a while, but a trap door can open any minute. The only market movement are the exchange whales playing their pathetic come hither game, to a bunch of would be participants who have developed shell shock:
Not the making of healthy market action.
It's a real pit of vipers to trade. I am remiss to weight longs without a capitulation event to enter with, and careful about shorting in size-as SKYNET loves to clean the position clocks if you lay them out too vulnerably. Liquidity is going towards zero. This makes wild price swings du jour-and not indicative of much anything else. Light positioning at outlier extremes via ladder trade is an excellent way to trade this market.
I am concentrating on BTC & ETH, as they have some organic volume. SKYNET can very inexpensively push prices about 10-20% without breaking a sweat these days. This movement has zero to do with anything you can TA or DYOR-for it is nothing more than a clash of the exchange titans, ie: SKYNET Gangster$. Hence ladder trading of outlier extremes in both directions.
The manip can be charted and worked, but there is no telling when SKYNET will pump an alternate reality for a time. You can pay SKYNET for the favor (use stop losses), or you can hunker down and hodl on through the move until it passes, (which is what I do 24/7).
My crypto outlook? Market Down, no question. When? Any time! How far? -50% avg would not surprise me.
Pay attention to longer term averaged price data to see future potential. If the Tides keep flipping, I may have to move the Tide time base from 14 to 28 days, etc......to better represent actual trend, as opposed to the SKYNET flippancy of the day, (which is ruining the directional value use of the Tide Arrow Indicator).
So let's focus there below . . .
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1.1 THE ONE CHART THAT RULES THEM ALL: TIPS ETF
9:07am pst: TIDE Arrow now negative & Trend Support broken. That was (too) fast!
That dashed green line is DDT Day Trend OHR developed over a YEAR. The vertical blue is where tides are computed from-2 weeks back to date. If you chart that, you see that lower highs and lower lows has reversed the Tide quickly. This one has solid support under, and solid OHR over-a real pressure cooker of a TA set up.....now breaking down as flagged yesterday.
CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/wNsPO8kT/
TIPs is now retracing in a concerted downtrend, this "should" erase market support into year end. Santa Rally? There were no issues here, until inflation tamed and the FED didn't dole out the candy this week. Now "voila!", there seems to be "issues"-but I don't think that will hold in the chop bucket environ. IF SBF et al hadn't screwed us all, I would be crypto bullish here, but that is not the case, alas.
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1.1.1 TIP et al Divergence Watch:
CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NfF1wY28/
BTC Divergency sharply closed. "Nice" CPI data has made the pivot acolytes "give up" here.
Bitcoin looks more stable because it is a thinner market that can be artificially stabilized very efficiently, (ask CZ). That stabilization may get a challenge here into year end as tax loss selling et al gets going, we'll see.
Coin Correlations outside of big broader market moves, remain weak/inconsistent generally-the latter point above likely why.
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1.2 THREE COIN MERGE/DURGE/PURGE MACRO VIEW:
HEADS Up-Positive BTC & ETH TIDEs have turned Neutral-ATOM canary has already died (turned negative).
CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/kihTNtqA/
3 Coins To Represent This Lemmings Come Hither Market: BTC (patriarch-white), ETH (matriarch-teal), ATOM (the energetic kids-blue).
Correlation to one another was tight here-then ATOM canary divergently died on the vine...a coal mine canary as confirmed today. ATOM Tide is first to be negative-telling that....BTC/ETH have shifted Neutral, ATOM was the Cassandra here:
ATOM (on the right), trying to get the message across. (It does that.)
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1.3 THE CRYPTO MARKET TREND SPOTTER: "BTC Watch"
Stair step down pattern clear here. Pattern A1 and A2 consolidate, flip up near the dump-then dump. Pattern A2 getting back underway, we'll see if it runs hard on "The CryptoWorld is Ending" FUD narrative.
CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/8wgeh9Uj/
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If you are an active or learning trader, I strongly recommend you read recent posts and their updates, as day to day I may not repeat important post items, only slather on new data as I find it. :)
There is a free treasure trove of information here, stuff you will find nowhere else, (original content):
https://www.reddit.com/r/DorothysDirtyDitch/comments/qrr32h/welcome_all_yee_broad_sword_scalpers/
Good Luck & Viva La Share-IF YOU SEE IT IN THE DATA, PLEASE CALL IT OUT, (no narratives por favor)!
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1.9 UPDATES FOLLOW, (trades I make are in comments section-posted when time permits):
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12.0 MISCELLANEOUS EVENT & DATA POST SECTION (ie: everything else goes here Virginia):
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