I've come across recurring questions/statements/ideas that may need to be clarified with specificity and some maybe incorrect, so let us start a discussion here on common Q&A (should follow the number sequence):
1) Crypto has no value (using bitcoin as example) and does not justify its current price in comparison to fiat (usd, world reserve currency) and stock market (shareholders holding equity in a real company with output).
My personal opinion is that crypto is challenging the way we view value due to changes in cultural norms. For example, people today value more work-life balance and put more weight on a lifestyle as opposed to older generations, the shift in values is being reflected in crypto where there is a higher emphasis on transparency, integrity, accountability, and with greater need for independence, people want to be in direct control of their finances. Other notable changes in lifestyle is the new generation are wearing less gold accessories especially Asians. Older generations of Asians tend to see gold as something to be hoarded and used as ornaments/accessories, currently zero of my peers wear any gold or have any gold in their keeping (my peers being middleclass Asians), this is another example of change of values.
Another reason why I feel Bitcoin/crypto has value is that the fact that the Bitcoin network/supercomputer is "256 times faster than the top 500 supercomputers combined" https://www.forbes.com/sites/reuvencohen/2013/11/28/global-bitcoin-computing-power-now-256-times-faster-than-top-500-supercomputers-combined/#282d24cd6e5e .
Well, one may say that so what if it is the fastest supercomputer? Let say there is an 'end of days' scenario where a new virus outbreak is threatening extinction. Bitcoin itself can change their algorithm so that instead of solving useless puzzles, all hashrate goes to solving the formula for a cure from the virus. This is a possible scenario when all life is threatened on Earth. Same ideology holds true if Bitcoin hashrate was devoted into solving cancer and therefore that is why being the most powerful supercomputer with the ability to potentially be a tool for human survival has value.
The third point I will like to point out is that crypto is becoming a humanity project whereby we are trying to have crypto be a reflection of what we want in a utopian world, decentralization, immutability, accountability etc. Clearly it is not yet the perfect solution which is why it is undergoing a lot of innovation, the innovation is a natural evolution of the technology towards a utopian future. There will be ups and downs but there is value in such a project.
2. Past results does not predict future outcomes.
This is a common phrase used by traders/investors. This term is not specific enough and amounts to much confusion. I will like to instead say this, I agree and also disagree with this statement. Agree because one great example is technical analysis (TA), TA uses past information to predict future probabilities. There is no shortage of TA analysis anywhere in financial market yet it is evident enough not a lot of people are making money off it. Steven Levitt's book either Think Like a Freak or Freakonomics has a case study where they prove that wall street economists analysis success rate is less than 50% ( a coin toss). If these economists cannot come up with a good analysis with past results, I will say it will not be easy for the common folk. Yet one may disagree with me on TA if they are making money off it and therefore they prove this statement wrong, in which case I agree with them.
Another agreement with the statement is if a person does not study for an exam, the outcome is quite predictable regardless of his past performance. This is normally true for the common folk (not geniuses).
Biggest disagreement with this statement will be the reason we study history haha.
Conclusion, perhaps it is more important to look at the number of variables in a given event. In terms of financial markets, the variables are surmountable therefore trying to predict future outcomes using history is tough, where else in comparison, someone studying for an exam has pretty much a limited number of variables between him actually studying for it and his health.
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