bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin
Halves every 4 years.
Price is function of demand, with consistent demand, and no speculation or outside influence, price grows at 19% per year.
1 -> 2 -> 4 -> 8 is a 19% rate of growth.
Volatility is the two-way function of price.
Bitcoin is computationally fixed, more predictable than Gold, Fiat, or any other asset known to man - fixed at 19%, with flat demand, flat counter-party influences, 100% unalterable, 100% auditable, 100% known.
Regardless of opinion, Bitcoin is more fixed and unalterable, at 19% annualized growth, than any other major store of wealth, in existence, ever - everything flat, society goes linear.
What is also fixed? Time. X.
Bitcoin is Time when graphed.
Meaning, all volatility is due to either change in demand or change in outside influence, never, ever a change in Bitcoin - it is the pole upon which Archimedes stands.
Now let's think of the counterpoint, and how Bitcoin is used. For this we will get deep and practical. Bitcoin is not mana, you don't buy a little every day (that is dumb) : Bitcoin is a bank, a reserve. You buy a bunch of it, and devy it out as you deplete. So every new buyer of Bitcoin has some scaling function, whereby savings transfer into Bitcoin, until Maxed, and then if Income < Costs, they pinch out to deplete.
The importance here is 19% is inferior to VC moneybags investing, the purchase of tools, the hiring of a tutor, or the micro-investing into side-hustles; but for the passive, index investor, it reigns supreme.
Now let's get deeper. The square root of Bitcoin is South America, Africa, Asia, and the island nations - the colonialized, and oppressed.
Is it America, is it Europe, is it Communist? Unimportant - it could be the distablization brought on by nature: in any country in which localized Fiat is untrusted, it is setup to pay tribute to a colonial power (such as propagation of USD), or run risk of being debased.
The cost of a 51% attack is X, reward more than. Imagine outsiders bring war to Iraq to remove a dictator and acquire oil. In such a case, currency gets debased, commerce halted, and it is the unintentional consequence of a side-quest. People of Iraq live and die, accidentally trampled without malice or profit.
Bitcoin saves that.
Now if colonization is an objective, and part of the business plan for say the US government is to destabilize Argentina, Turkey, or whatnot - with the hope either they choose to propagate USD, or they pay USD men to provide "insurance" and if not their money gets debased - kinda like a mob, everyone needs a bit of mafia in their life, if only to discourage future suitors.
In the event Bitcoin is known, a tortured society can collectively starve-off profits; making those that make money by charging a Colonial Management Fee, make less. Less expectation, less investment. All peoples within a danger zone for rapid debasement can optionally support a known mafioso, Bitcoin, or in the event the destabilization is a cause of nature, their nearest sovereign-currency provider (EU, US, GBP).
Once one currency is debased, it is unwise for a population to 'invest' in its replacement. Either it could be contrived, or at a minimum it is untested. Investing in ones local currency should be done at a minimum "whatever you can afford to lose", if it faces significant risk of debasement, or conversely could be used as a hidden-payoff to mobsters. Alternatively one can think of holding local speculative currency as a 'charitable giving', of sorts.
Here, Bitcoin is merchandising.
Here, Bitcoin is daily spending.
The wealth of this customer is paltry, the need sudden, and excessively sharp. They are a refugee - but unlike a migrational refugee, they can flee 'over the internet' so to speak. So, if ones supply chain remains intact, in theory one could swap Debased Dollar for Bitcoin, without any economic loss - loss in the progress of things, stalling of good transfers, services rendered, etc - this is not possible with USD, EU, GBP - sovereign dollars require approval - you got to pay a fee, get a license, ask permission, beg approval to use currency of outside sovereigns.
And what is your boss to think if you go cheating on him with USD? Maybe USD don't want to get into that mess. Maybe USD wants to allow a grace period post-breakup so that Angry X Dictator don't get the wrong idea.
But not Bitcoin.
Now this utility, or function of Bitcoin - Bitcoin is a first-mover into any population experiencing currency destabilization.
But, we got a problem. Bitcoin is volatile, both up and down. This customer must sell daily, and must purchase suddenly, unexpectedly - price can not be a factor.
So now you are seeing the two-sides of the coin of value.
One is shook demand from localized destabilization, and the second is a savings vehicle for the passive investor.
Those in shook need to minimize downside risk and high merchant utility, while those into passive saving move large amounts in, slowly, locking it down for a 4 year holding cycle.
Thus, savers can benefit those in distress by focusing on stabilizing price, into 4-year cycles, while those in distress can benefit themselves and reduce global tension by avoiding 'puppet currencies' of no material strength.
19% is the flat demand growth rate - 0% population growth, 0% inflation, 0% raises, arrested technological progress, if cost-of-thriving index stays flat, along with cost of living, and Bitcoin demand stays fixed, and price if perfectly predicted, Bitcoin grows at 19%, annually.
If one presumes a combined population + tech development + inflation of more than 0, then Bitcoin grows more. But this is misleading... Bitcoin consumes $6.5 Bil annually at a $10,000 value.
This is a fixed number, not a percentile.
If one says Monetary Growth is 5%... of 20 Trillion, then that is 1 T more dollars. Monetary Growth does not increase war, but it does increase funding for passive investments, like Bitcoin - for the Savers, Bitcoin is a luxury good; like 401k percentages or vacationing.
You buy Bitcoin with the expectation of 100% rate of return per US Presidential Cycle (19% per annum).
If New Money is saved in Bitcoin at a rate of 1%, then a 1 T increase is a $10 B increase in demand, stabilizing at over a 100% increase in price.
So we got:
A fixed amount of Old Money, moving into Bitcoin for passive investing with expected rates of 19% - this is done slowly, with a 4 year horizon. This money has extended time preference and sophistication, allowing it to stabilize price.
And then we got a % of New Money, which is more like a luxury good, that moves into Bitcoin with a leveraging of easily 100 to 1. This money would be highly volatile, as it would be most like to come out all-at-once after a negative experience from a short trial.
And lastly, one has the distressed, who have but a short time to learn about Bitcoin, buy Bitcoin, and have every merchant with whom they interact with accept Bitcoin - to achieve peace. For them, mild fluctuations are like a grocery store increasing their prices 8x over a year, and USD is off-limits - Bitcoin is a necessity, must be instantly accessible, and must be instantly spent.
Downward movement of 10% in any given month, or any given week, might prove hazardous for business. Prices, and exchange rates, could still be established in USD, but the actual exchange of value can occur in Bitcoin.. Remember, it is not USD Bitcoin is replacing, but Debased Economies Off-limits to USD - refugees, who want to build instead of migrate, and couldn't before without transferable money.
Bitcoin fell 80% in 1-year, which can destroy a business, but a New Money investor of 2-years should of at most lost only 50%, and presumably after 4-years they should up - and all Old Money investors should be up, if not partly cashed out with 1,000% returns.
So now we got this weird dynamic where as Bitcoin becomes less negatively volatile annually, it becomes more attractive for New Money, and as it becomes less volatile monthly, it becomes more attractive for the distressed - this new demand creates prices jumps, benefiting Old Money, whose responsibility it is to sell and rebuy intelligently to amplify profits, but also in order to increase the long-term usefulness of Bitcoin.
For the coming US Presidential Cycle, we may aim to reduce total negative volatility from 80% to 50%, over a multiyear period and monthly negative volatility from 60% to 30%.
The more linear the growth, the more exponential the demand.
Old Money must strive to stabilize the price of Bitcoin, both for themselves and for the hurting.
Creating price stability within Bitcoin is charity.
It is Kindness. It is a social love.
If anyone reads that, hope they enjoyed the journey.
Bitcoin 1776
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