Sunday, October 13, 2019

Asset classes in systemic crises

Hello everybody,

I'm currently thinking about insurance for extremely rare systemic crises and would like to know your opinion on relevant asset classes.

By systemic crises I do not mean "normal" economic crises (Financial crisis 2008, dotcom crisis 2001, oil crisis 1979 etc.) in which some assets lose value, but structural changes in ownership (currency cut after hyperinflation in Germany 1923), expropriations (Russian October Revolution 1917, German expropriations 1936, Cyprus 2013 etc.) or defaults (e.g. Argentina 2001). So the case I am focusing on is more serious than a normal crisis, but not a Mad-Max-type apocalypse scenario.

In such extraordinary events classic investments are not safe any longer because the legal framework can change significantly. Many super-rich with family offices have already taken precautions, and I wonder what a sort of "insurance" against systemic crises might look like for ordinary people.

So far, I have considered these investment options:

  1. Shares / Bonds: True geographic diversification in uncorrelated states

Although a foreign currency account with Swiss francs at a German bank or a deposit with foreign assets seems to be an apparent security, in systemic crises it would be entirely in the hands of the state (because the value is only guaranteed by a domestic contractual relationship). Due to a high degree of cooperation between states, it can also be assumed that a friendly state such as France or the like will insufficient protection against access.

Some alternatives:

a. A securities account of uncorrelated foreign shares (such as Indonesian shares) held by an Indonesian bank (or other non-friendly / closely linked countries) -> High complexity, but at the same time positive expected return and protection against local systemic crises

b. Government bonds of other states in their currency, which are also held there -> Similar to foreign stocks in local custody, additionally higher default risk

c. A securities account outside the home country with widely spread ETFs -> Problem: Systemic counterparty risk of issuers like Blackrock, Vanguard etc.

  1. Physical assets (optimally anonymous) a. Precious metals (as a crisis classic) -> Hard to expropriate, historically relatively stable investment in crises

b. Physical banknotes in foreign currencies -> Permits physical mobility, but will likely increase cash controls and phased global elimination

c. Other physical assets i. Jewellery ii. Art / Antiques -> Problems especially in lack of liquidity, as well as limited usage value

  1. Real estate a. Home or real estate in non-correlated countries -> The idea is also that land titles in other countries are not influenced by local systemic crises. Unfortunately, the acquisition of real estate in foreign countries is often complex and heavily regulated. An additional danger could be movements against foreign landowners (eg Zimbabwe in the 2000s)

  2. Alternative investments a. Cold-storage cryptocurrencies -> Bitcoin etc. on a USB stick wallet is very robust and not affected by local crises

b. Durable physical assets (barrels of oil, coffee, etc.) in a warehouse -> High administrative burden, but physical expropriation unlikely

c. Information (e.g., exclusive knowledge of oil resources, unpublished and unannounced patents, etc.) -> Non-physical, valuable and non-disposable, but almost impossible to obtain and limited liquid

My questions:

Do you think that systemic crises are in principle conceivable, or is the fact that there has not been any for many years is a reason that there will never be any systemic crisis again?

What is your opinion on asset classes in systemic crises? Does my list make sense?

Have you taken any precautions yourself?


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