Thursday, July 31, 2025

[Altcoin Discussion] - August 2025

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RSSX in a taxable?

Just wondering if anyone had some data or insight about holding RSSX in taxable brokerages.

Prospectus states they rebalance at 5% drift, but nothing beyond that.

Possible Outcomes from AI say the following

Best Case Scenario:

The fund's derivatives strategies are managed efficiently with minimal realized gains

You receive mostly qualified dividend distributions (if any)

Annual tax impact might be similar to a regular equity ETF: 1-3% of your position value

Moderate Case Scenario:

Some derivatives generate taxable events during the year

You might receive both ordinary income and capital gains distributions

Annual tax impact: 2-5% of your position value

Could receive a standard 1099 form

Worst Case Scenario:

Heavy derivatives trading creates significant taxable distributions

K-1 ETFs are subject to the 60/40 rule, meaning they're taxed at 60% long-term gains and 40% short-term gains regardless of the holding period U.S. Stocks & Gold/Bitcoin - Return Stacked® ETFs

If RSSX issues K-1s, you'd get more favorable tax treatment but more complex filing

Annual tax impact: 5%+ of your position value


The Daily Market Flux - Your Complete Market Rundown (07/31/2025)

Market Flux is the new standard in financial news aggregation, we’re committed to providing you with a complete, real-time view of the financial world.

Our platform aggregates and organizes all relevant market news, helping you stay informed, up-to-date, and knowledgeable without spending hours sifting through headlines.

Reinvented to keep you in control, it's where your edge begins with better information. Go from market noise to clarity in seconds with a real-time platform built to redefine how traders and investors digest financial news.

Visit www.marketflux.io

Here is Your Complete Market Rundown (07/31/2025):

Company News

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Performance Overview

1D Change:  3.95%

5D Change:  4.58%

News Volume:  373

Unusual Volume Factor:  4x

Microsoft Hits $4 Trillion Valuation as AI Boom Fuels Tech Rally

Microsoft and Meta delivered stellar earnings, propelling tech stocks to new heights. Microsoft's market cap surged past $4 trillion, joining Nvidia in this exclusive club. Both companies reported strong growth in cloud and AI segments, with Microsoft's Azure revenue up 39% year-over-year. The UK regulator raised concerns about Microsoft and Amazon's cloud market dominance. Analysts widely upgraded price targets for both stocks, citing AI-driven demand across the tech stack.

Full coverage of $MSFT on MarketFlux.io

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META)

Performance Overview

1D Change:  11.99%

5D Change:  8.91%

News Volume:  370

Unusual Volume Factor:  4x

Meta and Microsoft Earnings Blowout Fuels AI Frenzy on Wall Street

Meta Platforms and Microsoft delivered blockbuster earnings results on July 31, 2025, sending their stocks soaring and propelling the broader market to new heights. Meta's shares jumped 12% to a new record high after the company reported strong revenue growth of 22% year-over-year to $47.5 billion, beating analyst expectations. The social media giant's core advertising business showed renewed strength, powered by AI-driven optimizations.

Full coverage of $META on MarketFlux.io

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

Performance Overview

1D Change:  1.9%

5D Change:  1.01%

News Volume:  229

Unusual Volume Factor:  3x

Amazon Beats Earnings Expectations, but Cloud Growth Concerns Dampen Investor Enthusiasm

Amazon has reported its second-quarter earnings for 2025, beating Wall Street expectations but facing some challenges in its cloud computing division. The e-commerce giant posted revenue of $167.7 billion, surpassing analyst estimates of $162.1 billion. Earnings per share came in at $1.68, significantly higher than the expected $1.33.

Full coverage of $AMZN on MarketFlux.io

Bristol-myers Squibb Company (BMY)

Performance Overview

1D Change:  -4.85%

5D Change:  -10.59%

Bristol-Myers Squibb Beats Q2 Expectations, Raises Revenue Guidance Amid Mixed Outlook

Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) reported impressive second-quarter results for 2025, surpassing analysts' expectations. The company's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.46, significantly beating the estimated $1.07. Revenue also exceeded forecasts, reaching $12.27 billion compared to the expected $11.38 billion.

Full coverage of $BMY on MarketFlux.io

Geopolitics Events

Trump Extends U.S.-Mexico Tariff Deal, Grants 90-Day Window for Trade Talks

President Donald Trump has announced a significant development in U.S.-Mexico trade relations. The current tariff arrangement between the two countries has been extended for an additional 90 days, providing more time for negotiations on a new trade deal.

Trump's Tariff Deadline Looms, Rattling Markets and Raising Economic Concerns

President Donald Trump's looming tariff deadline has sent shockwaves through global markets, creating a tense atmosphere of uncertainty and volatility. As the clock ticks down to midnight on August 1st, when new tariff rates are set to take effect, the financial world holds its breath.

Trump Issues 60-Day Ultimatum to Pharma Giants, Demanding Lower Drug Prices

President Donald Trump has taken decisive action on pharmaceutical pricing, sending letters to 17 major drug companies demanding they reduce prices for American consumers. The White House confirmed that Trump sent these letters on Thursday, giving the companies 60 days to act or face potential consequences.

Appeals Court Weighs Legality of Trump's "Liberation Day" Tariffs in Crucial Hearing

A federal appeals court is set to hear oral arguments today on the legality of President Donald Trump's extensive "Liberation Day" tariffs. The case represents a critical test for Trump's trade agenda, with higher tariff rates against numerous countries scheduled to take effect tomorrow.

Trump Blasts Fed Chair Powell as "Too Late," Questions Competence

President Trump launched a scathing attack on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, dubbing him "Too Late" Powell. Trump criticized Powell's timing on rate adjustments, calling him "too angry, too stupid, and too political" for the role.

Macro Events

Core PCE Inflation Exceeds Expectations, Signaling Persistent Price Pressures

The U.S. economy showed signs of persistent inflation in June, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rising more than expected. The core PCE index, a key inflation measure watched by the Federal Reserve, increased 0.3% month-over-month, matching forecasts. However, the year-over-year core PCE rose 2.8%, surpassing the anticipated 2.7%.

JPMorgan CEO Urges Caution on Rates as African Central Banks Cut Key Rates

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon urges caution on rate decisions, warning of underestimated inflation risks and overestimated rate cut likelihood. He also expresses optimism about ongoing tariff negotiations.

German Inflation Edges Higher, EU-Harmonized Rate Dips Below Expectations

German inflation data for July shows mixed results. Consumer prices rose 2% year-over-year, slightly above expectations of 1.9%.

Technology Events

Tech Giants' AI Investments Pay Off as Microsoft and Meta Soar, While Industry Grapples with Challenges and Regulations

The tech world is abuzz with AI-related developments, as major companies continue to invest heavily in artificial intelligence technologies. Microsoft's stock climbed 8.7% after beating Q4 expectations, driven by AI growth. This surge pushed Microsoft's valuation above $4 trillion, cementing its position as an AI infrastructure leader. Goldman Sachs raised Microsoft's price target to $630, while KeyBanc upgraded it to Overweight, citing AI-driven demand across the tech stack.

NVIDIA Refutes Backdoor Claims in AI Chips, Addresses Chinese Security Concerns

NVIDIA strongly denies allegations of backdoors in its AI chips amid a Chinese security inquiry. The company asserts it doesn't have backdoors and won't allow unauthorized access to its systems.

AI Dominates Tech Landscape as China Secretly Builds Desert Data Centers

Big Tech's heavy investment in AI is winning investor approval, despite high costs. China's top AI summit showcased an array of robots, signaling intense competition in the field.

Salesforce and ServiceNow Near $1.5 Billion Investment in Genesys Cloud

Salesforce and ServiceNow are in advanced negotiations to invest a combined $1.5 billion in Genesys Cloud Services.

Corporate Actions Events

Figma IPO Sees Surging Demand, Shares Poised to Double in Market Debut

Figma's highly anticipated IPO is making waves in the market today. The design software company priced its initial public offering at $33 per share, valuing the firm at over $19 billion on a fully diluted basis.

Activist Investor Urges Viasat Split, Projects Massive Value Boost

Hedge fund Carronade Capital is pushing Viasat to split its broadband and defense units. The activist investor estimates this spin-off could generate up to $11 billion in value, potentially increasing Viasat's valuation by 500%.

Earnings Events

Apple Crushes Q3 Earnings Expectations with Soaring iPhone Sales and Record Services Revenue

Apple has delivered a stellar performance in its Q3 2025 earnings report, surpassing Wall Street expectations across the board. The tech giant reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.57, significantly beating the estimated $1.43. Revenue for the quarter reached an impressive $94.04 billion, far exceeding the projected $89.3 billion.

Amazon Beats Earnings Expectations, but Cloud Computing Concerns Dampen Investor Enthusiasm

Amazon has released its Q2 2025 earnings report, showcasing impressive results that surpassed Wall Street expectations. The e-commerce giant reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.68, significantly beating the estimated $1.33. Net sales reached $167.70 billion, outperforming the projected $162.15 billion.

Coinbase Reports Mixed Q2 Earnings: Profit Surges Despite Revenue Miss and Trading Volume Decline

In a surprising turn of events, Coinbase Global ($COIN) reported mixed Q2 2025 earnings results. While the company's profit surged, fueled by gains in investments including Circle Internet Group, its revenue fell short of Wall Street expectations.

Microsoft Joins $4 Trillion Club After Stellar Earnings Report

Microsoft's market valuation surges past $4 trillion, becoming the second company ever to reach this milestone. The tech giant's stock soars following a strong earnings report, showcasing robust growth in cloud-computing services.

Mastercard and AbbVie Lead Strong Q2 Earnings Season, Beating Expectations Amid Mixed Results

In a flurry of Q2 2025 earnings reports, several major companies have posted their results, with many beating expectations.

Roku Smashes Q2 Expectations, Announces Buyback Program Amid Tech Sector's Strong Earnings

Roku delivered impressive Q2 2025 results, surpassing expectations across the board. The company reported revenue of $1.11B, up 15% YoY, and EPS of $0.07, beating estimates of -$0.16. Net income turned positive at $10.5M, a significant improvement from last year's loss.

AbbVie Beats Q2 Expectations, Raises Full-Year Outlook on Strong Drug Sales

AbbVie's second-quarter earnings for 2025 have surpassed expectations, showcasing robust financial performance. The company reported total revenue of $15.42 billion, beating estimates of $15 billion, with a 6.6% year-over-year increase. Adjusted earnings per share reached $2.97, exceeding the projected $2.88.

Tech Giants' Earnings Propel Market Surge

Meta and Microsoft's impressive earnings reports, driven by AI spending, spark a market rally.

Roblox Beats Bookings Estimates, Raises Outlook Despite Mixed Q2 Earnings

Roblox's Q2'25 earnings show mixed results. Revenue reached $1.08B, slightly below estimates, but bookings soared to $1.44B, surpassing expectations. Daily active users hit 111.8M, exceeding forecasts.

Comcast Beats Earnings Estimates, Defies Customer Loss Concerns

Comcast's Q2 2025 earnings surpassed analyst expectations, despite ongoing losses in broadband and cable-TV customers. The company reported revenue of $30.31B, up 2.1% YoY, and adjusted EPS of $1.25, a 3.3% increase.

First Solar Beats Q2 Estimates, Raises Revenue Outlook as Shares Soar

First Solar reports impressive Q2 results, beating earnings estimates with $3.18 EPS and $1.10B in sales. The company maintains its net income guidance midpoint but raises full-year revenue outlook to $4.9B-$5.7B.

Cloudflare Shares Surge as Q2 Results and Raised Guidance Impress Investors

Cloudflare's Q2 results exceed expectations, with revenue growth accelerating and earnings beating estimates. The company raises its full-year guidance, projecting higher revenue and non-GAAP EPS than previously forecast.

KKR Outperforms Expectations with Robust Q2 Earnings and Strategic Growth

KKR reports strong second-quarter results, beating analyst estimates. The company's profit rises due to increased fee income and management fees.

Crypto Events

SEC Unveils "Project Crypto" to Revolutionize U.S. Financial Markets and Embrace Blockchain Technology

In a groundbreaking move, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has launched "Project Crypto," a sweeping initiative aimed at modernizing securities rules and transitioning U.S. financial markets onto blockchain technology. SEC Chair Paul Atkins unveiled the ambitious plan, positioning America to become the global leader in blockchain and digital finance.

SEC Chair Declares Majority of Crypto Assets Not Securities, Signaling Regulatory Shift

SEC Chair Paul Atkins makes a groundbreaking statement, declaring that most cryptocurrencies and crypto assets do not fall under the category of securities.

Ethereum Unveils Ambitious 10-Year Roadmap, Targeting Quantum Resistance and 10,000 TPS

Ethereum has unveiled an ambitious 10-year roadmap, setting bold goals for the next decade. The plan, revealed by Justin Drake of the Ethereum Foundation, aims to achieve quantum resistance and significantly enhance scalability, targeting 10,000 transactions per second (TPS).

Bitcoin Surges Past $118K, Outpaces Amazon as Crypto Market Turns Bullish

Bitcoin's dominance in the crypto market is rising, with its price reaching $118K. The cryptocurrency has surpassed Amazon in market cap, becoming a top-5 asset.

Stock Markets Events

S&P 500 and Dow Tumble, Erasing Early Gains as Market Anxiety Builds

The U.S. stock market experienced a volatile session, with major indices reversing early gains to close lower. The S&P 500 ended down 21.07 points (0.33%) at 6,341.83, marking its biggest intraday reversal since April 8. The Dow Jones suffered the most, falling 315 points (0.71%) to 44,145.92, while the Nasdaq managed to limit its losses, closing down just 13.69 points (0.07%) at 21,115.99.

Dalio Exits Bridgewater Ownership, Concludes Hedge Fund's Leadership Transition

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has sold his final stake in the hedge-fund firm and resigned from its board. This marks the end of Dalio's ownership era, concluding a turbulent transition period.

Healthcare Events

Biotech Firms Report Advancements in Clinical Trials and Product Developments

In a significant development for diabetes treatment, Eli Lilly's Mounjaro demonstrates heart health benefits in a head-to-head trial with Trulicity. Meanwhile, several biotech companies report progress in their clinical trials and product launches.

Moderna Slashes Workforce by 10% as COVID Vaccine Demand Wanes

Moderna, the biotech company, announces a significant workforce reduction of 10% as part of cost-cutting measures.

Eli Lilly's Mounjaro Demonstrates Superior Cardiovascular Benefits Over Trulicity

Eli Lilly's obesity drug Mounjaro outperforms Trulicity in cardiovascular benefits, according to a late-stage trial.

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Bitcoin Analysis: The Cryptocurrency Holds a Neutral Bias Near All-Time Highs

Over the past five trading sessions, Bitcoin's price has fluctuated less than 2%, reflecting a persistent state of neutrality in the short term, with a clear lack of direction in the market.

By :  Julian Pineda, CFA,  Market Analyst

Over the past five trading sessions, Bitcoin's price has fluctuated less than 2%, reflecting a persistent state of neutrality in the short term, with a clear lack of direction in the market. For now, this neutral stance remains in place as the market digests the impact of the latest Federal Reserve decision, as well as the loss of momentum in positive sentiment toward crypto assets. In this context, Bitcoin continues to struggle to hold consistent gains above its all-time highs.

Click the website link below to read our exclusive Guide to bitcoin trading in Q2 2025

https://www.cityindex.com/en-au/market-outlooks-2025/q2-bitcoin-outlook/

https://preview.redd.it/ywsjbhgi4agf1.png?width=1500&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d95ee9fde1bea13181abfdc30976ea4b301c8bd

Is the Fed’s Decision Having an Impact?

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain its interest rate at 4.5%, extending its neutral policy stance throughout 2025. Following the announcement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the "wait and see" approach, warning that inflation remains a short-term threat. This suggests that it remains uncertain whether the central bank will begin a rate-cutting cycle in the near future.

https://preview.redd.it/lbomoqkk4agf1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=29ea2a0fefdf8213107c0991d6487401c0f3bf93

Source: TradingEconomics

This environment has had a direct impact on BTC, as it is still viewed by some investors as an alternative safe-haven asset, whose appeal diminishes when compared to traditional instruments like US Treasury bonds, which currently offer attractive returns tied to elevated interest rates. Unlike those instruments, Bitcoin does not generate fixed income, making it less competitive within institutional portfolios in a high-rate environment.

In this context, with the Fed showing reluctance to begin cutting rates, there is a growing likelihood that the US dollar may continue to strengthen, supported by ongoing demand for Treasuries. This could weaken the Bitcoin-as-a-safe-haven narrative, especially if investment flows shift toward rate-sensitive assets like bonds or the dollar itself.

In fact, this dollar recovery is already visible through the DXY index, which has climbed back to the 100-point level, confirming renewed strength in the US dollar against a basket of global currencies and assets. This reinforces the competitive dynamic between the dollar and Bitcoin, potentially acting as an indirect bearish catalyst for the cryptocurrency if BTC fails to reestablish solid buying pressure in the coming sessions.

https://preview.redd.it/if8ay0865agf1.png?width=1264&format=png&auto=webp&s=21ab4e876f69aa0c1430f0850ca52c06dd71621e

Source: MarketWatch

As the dollar strengthens and becomes a leading rival to BTC, Bitcoin may struggle to maintain consistent demand, which could become a key driver of sideways or even bearish pressure, in line with the neutral price action observed recently.

 

Is Market Confidence Fading?

Sentiment in the crypto market has begun to soften, with the Fear & Greed Index slipping to 62 points, right at the boundary between “greed” and “neutrality.” This shift suggests that investor confidence is losing momentum, reinforcing a more cautious tone in the crypto space.

https://preview.redd.it/4r2n74ao4agf1.png?width=1033&format=png&auto=webp&s=689e1c11586bb1267b5f0293a778f325d405a0a0

Source: Coinmarketcap

This loss of confidence may prevent Bitcoin from sustaining levels above its all-time highs in the near term. If the index continues to decline in the sessions ahead, it could signal a technical pause in the bullish trend that BTC had been building in recent months.

 

Bitcoin Technical Outlook

https://preview.redd.it/ugupoi4q4agf1.png?width=774&format=png&auto=webp&s=e5dba0f0fe2bf886f418e4393f83ab43b6012aa3

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

  • Uptrend Holds: Despite the recent lack of direction, BTC still maintains a long-term bullish structure, with price holding steadily above $115,000 per unit. However, in recent weeks, price movements have shown signs of persistent neutrality, suggesting a consolidation phase or a potential pause within the broader uptrend. If this sideways movement continues without setting new highs, the technical strength of the trend may begin to deteriorate.
  • RSI: The Relative Strength Index remains above the 50 level, but has started to flatten, potentially signaling a loss of bullish momentum. If it drops too close to the neutral level, this could confirm that Bitcoin is entering a clearer consolidation period with waning buying strength.
  • MACD: The MACD histogram paints a similar picture, fluctuating around the zero line without clear direction. This indicates that market momentum has turned neutral, reinforcing the possibility of continued sideways movement in the short term.

 Key Levels:

  • $111,000 – Distant Support: This area, observed as a neutral zone in June, currently serves as the main barrier to further downside pressure. If the price drops to this level, it could trigger a more consistent bearish trend on the chart.

 

  • $115,000 – Nearby Support: This level represents recent lows and is the first to monitor in the event of short-term pullbacks. Holding above it would help preserve the bullish pressure.

 

  • $120,000 – Key Resistance: This level marks Bitcoin’s all-time high, making it the most important resistance zone in the short term. A breakout above this level could reactivate the bullish trend, which is currently paused.

 

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst

Follow him on: u/julianpineda25

https://www.cityindex.com/en-au/news-and-analysis/bitcoin-analysis-the-cryptocurrency-holds-a-neutral-bias-near-all-time-highs/

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