Monday, November 12, 2018

Satoshi left a backdoor...

Thanks for taking it easy on me in my first post, guys/gals.

It's emboldened me to bring something else up that I didn't want to include in my first post.

I'm sure you've read the title by now... and you're probably thinking I'm full of it, because you've scoured the code, as thousands have, and haven't been able to find a backdoor...

But you were looking in the wrong place... it's been in front of us the whole time, and despite it being right smack front of our noses, you can't just hack it, because it's built into the design.

I really hope that Satoshi truly was not one person, that if Satoshi really is/was one person s/he isn't dead yet (for ease of reading, I will refer to Satoshi as "they" from now on, despite me not believing that), and that if they really were/are one person, that they shared what I'm about to tell you, or made provisions for it to be shared somehow with someone trustworthy and capable enough to handle it upon their death. Given their writings and the amount of forethought that went into every step of their actions, I truly believe that they did make provisions, but only time could tell us with any certainty.

I believe that Satoshi did this as a precaution. A protection, in case things go the wrong way. Playing out in my head the 4-dimensional global chess game of our current situation and how things are progressing, I think that there's a 50/50 chance of it still being needed... but I'm no Edgar Roy.

Satoshi's backdoor necessitates a few things for it to not only be needed, but for it to be potentially successfully used.

First, the inevitable coming global financial crisis must be well underway. (I believe that the Satoshi's final card was meant to be the last-ditch resolution to the potential wars/famines/plagues/pestilences that this crisis can/will cause.)

Second, "enough" wealth transfer into bitcoin by not only the politically elite and wealthy, but also the masses, must have occurred. I used quotations because there is no concrete measure of this, so if Satoshi is alive, they will never know if it has been "enough" so they will therefore wait until the absolute last second to deploy this "backdoor". Hopefully, they won't have to... Keep in mind that adoption follows a logarithmic curve... so the window of opportunity to play Satoshi's final card will probably be very tight.

Third, the global financial crisis must have truly gotten to the point where it is so bad that the Satoshi have to believe that there is no longer any hope of peaceful and successful resolution without intervention in the face of potentially plunging the human race into the second Dark Ages.

I know what you're thinking... "This goes against everything that Satoshi stood for! I refuse to believe that s/h/th/ey would have left a centralized backdoor like this!" and you may very well be right, and I am looking forward to your adult, mature discussion about this, because I can't think of any other explanation. Hal Finney's death, IMO, is not a valid response, because you need to explain why he would have sat on all those BTC until his death, so this argument is still valid in that case. In fact, the only valid argument I can think of is that the Satoshi all died shortly after the last bitcoins were transferred into those wallets and they erased their tracks.

Keep in mind that the genesis of the Satoshi's actions and therefore the outcomes of those actions necessitated "centralization", and I think that they fully understood the centralization implications of them being the "centralized birth" of bitcoin. Even though the Satoshi collaborated with many people, the original idea and "spark" was almost certainly from one mind... even if the Satoshi were/are an individual... When it comes down to it, "centralization" is necessary (at least temporarily) for progress to occur, because new ideas are formed in the (centralized) individual's mind, which is as small of a centralization as exists in the human race. If we eradicate centralization completely, the voice of the individual ceases to be heard. Imagine if we wouldn't have listened to Nikolai Tesla or Albert Einstein because their voices were too "centralized".

You don't believe that is "centralization"? That must mean that you don't think that monarchies are centralized... Sure, this comparison can be poked at in many ways, if you really want to nitpick... it won't distract from the big picture, though.

I believe that the Satoshi fully understood that centralization can be a good thing in some situations, in order for individual sparks to be fanned, as long as it is backed by good intentions, kept free from corruption, and time limitations put in place. History has proven that remaining centralized for too long is never a good idea... After all, this is the reason that the most civilized countries put time limits on the terms that leaders can stay in power. The problem is figuring out how long "too long" is, ensuring a means of removing the centralization when it is no longer "good", and also a working definition of "good".

"Good" luck...

I'm sure that if what I'm saying is true, the Satoshi made provisions for this "backdoor" to not remain "centralized" to them, once its utility was not needed any more... As far as when that utility would not be needed any more, I'll get to that later.

So what I believe the Satoshi's backdoor is, is simply the ~1.5m BTC (debatable, of course) that they own.

Wait, please hear me out...

Given the Satoshi's dedication to forethought, do you really believe that they didn't realize that in the future, any individual or conglomerate that owns 1.5m BTC would hold immense power? Do you really believe that they held onto that many (especially not distributing it over many wallets!) without having a REALLY GOOD reason for it? If you've read all of the Satoshi's writings, don't you think that they realized that by holding that many, it was almost a certainty that their holdings would eventually be discovered and they were going to be targeted in the future? IMO this was one of the primary reasons (if not THE primary reason) that they went into hiding...

They were altruistically holding the one global "get out of jail free" card, and knew that they were the only ones that could be trusted with it. Having said that, I really do believe that they did make provisions for it to not be lost in case of their untimely death, and let's not focus on the "Satoshi is a number of individuals" debate, because we won't get anywhere. This is all still applicable in either scenario.

So how did the Satoshi believe that their "backdoor" could be our "get out of jail free" card? Simple, really. Given the three assumptions I wrote above, Satoshi would anonymously declare himself, and prove his identity by moving X BTC from one of his addresses (probably to a charity IMO). The entire world would immediately have his attention, and as long as the world's fiats had already started collapsing enough, there would not be another viable store of wealth that is also useful for every day transactions. "What about gold and silver?" you say? Not a useful means of currency today. Sure, it'll always be a good store of wealth (until a vast gold mine is discovered somewhere on earth or another planet), but unless we truly do plunge back into the Dark Ages (in which case the Satoshi would have missed their window of opportunity and their card will become unplayable) and global transactions are not necessary any more.

"What about altcoins?" Whether or not you think that all altcoins will die, I don't think that bitcoin will ever lose its store of value. Let's assume that LN is unfortunately unsuccessful, and so is any future update to increase tps... At this point, even if we would never get to the level of using bitcoin for everyday transactions, the worst future for bitcoin would essentially turn it into a digital copy of gold... Slow, cumbersome, expensive and difficult to interact with for everyday small transactions, extremely difficult for global transactions. Yet, gold has held its "value" (buying power, not numerical price, which has all kinds of things affecting it) despite these (and more) drawbacks (especially when compared to bitcoin), and in the face of globalization and digitalization. Yes, I know that transaction cost has gone down since January 2017... and you can show me all the data you want... but until we see what happens in the next bullrun (the best real-world simulation of mass adoption that is possible, outside of virtual mathematical simulations), there is nobody on this planet that can guarantee it to be prepared for true mass adoption, or that future developments will be successful. Nobody knows the future, which means that there are no guarantees, at least for us humans living in this 4-dimensional universe.

It's really all besides the point, though. Put simply: worst case scenario, at the very least, bitcoin will forever be a store of value, because it equals or exceeds gold in every aspect. As long as humans remain alive in any meaningful way and technology is not lost (this is, ultimately, the Satoshi's goal, is it not?), it will be impossible for it to not become a store of value because of its historical value as being the first, and at the very least, it will turn into a "collector's item" due to its historical significance. Since there is no way to "sell" somebody your private keys without being certain that there are no other copies of the seed phrase, the "future collectors" will be forced to transfer it to their own wallet, which means that transactions on the blockchain will continue, and bitcoin will never "die" unless the human race is eradicated, or we evolve to the point that we eradicate money (in which case bitcoin won't even be needed any more, but most people alive today don't even have the capacity to visualize this as being not only possible, but a potentially desirable future for humans) as well as the human desire to "collect" (which won't have any effect if we truly evolve past "money"). Like I said, though, worst case scenario, and if it will happen, it is quite far off. Definitely at least a few generations.

Anyway, I digress.

At this point, you're probably asking: "But what would the Satoshi do, after they publicly declare themselves and prove their identity?" Well, here goes... Keep in mind that this is the Satoshi's last card... and that they would only do this if it got bad enough... but the timing has to be perfect because if they wait too long, they might lose the last hope we might have, if it comes down to it. They absolutely don't want to have to play the final card, either, unless they think it's absolutely necessary to keep us out of the Dark Ages, or worse. I'm sure that they are hoping that they won't have to, but just in the case that things don't turn out the way that they are hoping they will, I think they are planning to threaten to dump their btc all at once in order to crash it, unless the world leaders causing whatever strife stop what they were doing and start playing nice. Since by this point the world leaders would have converted even their own holdings primarily into btc/crypto and probably precious metals, they would not want that to happen.

Of course, the successful deployment of the Satoshi's final card is not foolproof... and if they are all still alive, then I'm sure they dread the possibility of the day arriving in which they deem that deployment cannot be prolonged. How soon could that day come? No human knows the answer to that, but every day shows us that it is still in the cards.

So when would the Satoshi's final card not be needed any more? Easy: if we can pull ourselves out of the coming financial crisis by peacefully converting fiats to crypto before wars/famines/plagues/pestilences kill too many, and we can peacefully focus on humans becoming an interplanetary species before another mass extinction level event happens, whether or not we cause it. But, as Ron Paul recently said:

"The first steps are passing the 'Audit the Fed' bill, allowing people to use alternative currencies, and exempting all transactions in precious metals and cryptocurrencies from capital gains taxes and other taxes."

Unfortunately, that seems like an alternate reality at this point, rather than even a far-off future, and every passing day seems to shift us closer to the possibility of the Satoshi's final card play being necessary, with no hope of change appearing yet on the horizon. Over the years, (in my mind, at least) the possible situations ending in the Satoshi's final card not needing to be played have one by one been invalidated, until now it truly hangs almost precisely in the balance at about 50%. One can only hope, though, that if it comes down to it being necessary, the Satoshi's final card will be played so masterfully and skillfully that it will be the game-ending Final-Boss-killing "Ultimate Fatality" to fiats and currency mismanagement by those who wish to oppress, truly the "Trump to end all Trumps" (no potential future pun intended? please don't let it come to that?).

One way or another, the illusion of time marches on, and most people alive today will probably have to witness the Satoshi's final card being played. Every day, more cycles and signs converge in this direction. The coming years are going to be one heck of a doozy, so invest and prepare wisely, and make sure you bring lots of popcorn... and let's just hope that the dolphins aren't all going to disappear one day.

"The way I see it, there's only two possible outcomes: either I make it down there in one piece and I have one hell of a story to tell, or I burn up in the next ten minutes. Either way, whichever way, no harm no foul, 'cause either way, it'll be one hell of a ride. I'm ready." -Ryan Stone

What do you guys think? Since the Satoshi didn't "pull a Charlie Lee", can you justify them holding onto that many BTC in any other way, given their writings, level of forethought, and philosophical alignment? Or do you think that they died before spending or selling any? Do you think the Satoshi created a "Bitcoiniminati" that will pass the keys down before/if they die? Most importantly, do you think that it will come down to the Satoshi having to play their final card when all hope seems lost in the 11th hour (as humans seem to have a knack for) and will we see a time when it is safe for the Satoshi to reveal their true identity?


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