Saturday, February 2, 2019

Drones are insects

Let us look into the future and try to present some developments in the field of AI and IOT in a realistic concept. Some technologies may not be so mature yet, but when they are, you need to know what to expect. In the represented construct, there are many approaches and fields where you can take the leading role. Nevertheless, most important are the approaches to further development and generation of new ideas that prepare you for the future in the field of IOT. As so often, let us look at nature and imagine the drone equipped with AI as an insect. An independent, self-determining unit that contains the indirect (like a virus) characteristics of a living being:

  • Motion
  • Reproduction
  • Self-optimization / further development
  • Self-preservation
  • Responding to the changing environment
    There will be many drones, as in nature, optimized for the respective task. I will discuss an example of a flying drone that can transport parcels and works as a delivery drone. Or rather, who earns his money transporting goods from A to B. Many other designs would also be conceivable, such as cleaning drones for the streets, windows, facades, autonomous taxis, ...
    Drone's characteristics:
  • Independent unit that has self-preservation as its goal.
  • Like all living beings, the drone needs energy to keep it alive/active. This energy is not available free, so the drone needs the money. The drone is aware of that.
  • Further, the drone knows that it needs repair and protection from the environment.
  • With plenty of resources (money), the drone can afford extra features: further development and reproduction.
  • The drone earns money by providing the services (in this case transport).
  • The drone actively searches for a task. The tasks are offered by "Flowers". As in nature, the bee finds the task (distribution of pollen) in flowers and is paid for it with sugar (energy).
  • The drone decides whether the task can be completed based on several factors. (weather conditions, energy supply sufficient for the task, weight and dimensions of the goods to be transported, payment). * If the drone decides to accept the task, the further procedure is planned (route from A to B, a stopover for loading the batteries, possible repair).
  • Outside working hours (time during which the task is completed), the drone independently decides where the batteries are to be charged (fully automatic charging station), which accommodation is to be used (drone hotel - fully automatic accommodation of the drone), whether and which repairs are necessary (fully automatic repair station), whether the drone wants to tune itself (tuning station) or reproduce (reproduction station). The drone spends the money it earns.
    Now we have a possible representation of what constitutes the drone and what is important to the drone.

    The following points are described in more detail, here are the fields where XXXX can participate and advance as a pioneer:

  • "Flower"

  • Money

  • Charging station

  • Hotel

  • Repair station

  • Tuning station

  • Reproduction station

    "Flower"
    Blume is a station operated by private individuals or companies that contains the infrastructure that enables them to take on tasks and pay for them. In this case it is a landing site for the drone with a package and a connection for data exchange (payment, detailed task description). How does the drone find a task or flower? Two ways are possible, both have advantages and disadvantages and both can be used simultaneously.

  • Autarkic

  • Natural (if the drone does not have access to the Internet or any other network).

  • Networked (drone can access global network)

    Autarkic
    In order to find a task, the drone goes on the search for a suitable flower. The flower in turn tries to attract the drone by sending a beacon with a short signal describing the task, position and payment within a radius of several kilometers. Signal is visible to all drones in the area. Once the drone has received the signal, it decides whether the task is feasible or not. If the drone decides to accept the task, it moves to the coordinates described in Signal. If several drones decide to do this task, the one who is first at the flower will do the task. Here a competition develops; the faster drone will prevail with the time. After landing on the flower, the drone is automatically connected to the flower's network, where the data exchange necessary for the task and payment takes place. After the payment (in full or in instalments) has been made and confirmed, the package will be accepted. The drone is on its way to point B. At point B, the parcel is unloaded and the remaining amount is paid. The drone docks at the network connection of station B and a handover protocol is generated. This log is stored in a database (block chain) and serves as the basis for evaluating this drone. Based on this evaluation, the flower may refuse to perform the task of a particular drone in the future.

    Networked
    If the drone has access to the Internet or a network specially developed for this purpose, a suitable task can be taken from a task hub.

    Task hub
    Here the tasks of flowers and services of drones are offered globally. (If the drone has been properly tuned up, the delivery can take place over several kilometers). If several drones decide on a task, an auction starts. The drones undercut each other in price and delivery time. The winner can go on his way. If the drone is always online, the flower can track and evaluate the drone's arrival and delivery itself. If the drone has overestimated the delivery time in the quotation, this deviation is written into the drone evaluation. Next time, this drone may be denied surrender. In the end, the drone that can realistically assess the situation will survive. The task hub handles the payment and transmission of important data. For example, no mains connection is required for flowers as soon as the drone is connected to the mains wirelessly. And the station/airfield can be made easier. The result is a competition among the flowers and drones. Supply and demand regulate the balance. If there are few drones and many flowers available, the flowers will outbid each other with more pay per task. If there are many drones and few tasks available, the drones will undercut each other in price. It is now difficult to estimate whether the drones AI will develop the ability to dump the price. If the drone does not take into account the cost of any maintenance/repair, this drone will self-destruct in the long run. At the end, a balance will be reached where the number of drones (see reproduction) and the prices will adapt to the respective location.

    Money
    Money is the lubricant that keeps the whole ecosystem going. The drone behaves like a typical consumer - earning and spending money. It is not classic money, but means of payment / token / credit, which are accepted by all parties involved as means of payment. To keep it understandable, I will keep calling it money. Here the block chain plays a central role. The block chain is a distributed database that can only be filled (changes or deletions are not possible). Each participant has a copy of the database and can write any values into this database. Now there are many independent block chains, which mainly contain the transactions (address A transfers sum X to address B) e.g. Bitcoin. The selection of the suitable block chain is quite small, which would be suitable for the IOT applications. Classic block chain is too bulky and sluggish. The IOTA block chain approach is the more appropriate one. Also because here the transaction fees cost nothing (except energy for the calculation of the 2 previous transitions) and thus the smallest sums can be transferred (e.g. for 10 minutes loading at the charging station). The IOTA does not have the classic block chain structure, but a tangle. To keep it understandable, I will call it block chain in a more abstract way. The drone should be able to accept and make payment, and thus always transports its wallet with it. A connection to the Internet and electricity is required to process the transactions. In a self-sufficient procedure, i.e. if no Internet access is available, the transactions are carried out at the respective stations, using the Internet access of the stations (docking, transfer/receive, undocking). The recipient's data is required for the transfer. These are transmitted by the recipient after the specific request. This is a critical point in communication. If the data is transmitted wirelessly, someone can cheer on a wrong wallet address. For security reasons, an advance transaction can be carried out here. After confirmation of receipt by the recipient, the remaining amount will be transferred. In case when the drone pays someone for the services, the drone calculates the transactions itself, the recipient confirms the received transaction. In case, the drone receives the payment (paid by the flower), the flower calculates the transaction and the drone confirms the payment. With a networked approach, the task hub makes payment after confirmation has been received from all parties involved. For the safe handling of the payment and completion of the task, the concept "prepayment" can be changed to concept "partial payment". Here it must be shown, which concept becomes the common one.

    Charging station
    The charging station is a landing site where the drone can charge itself fully automatically and pay for this process. Private persons or companies can operate charging stations. As a self-sufficient solution for attracting the drone, the charging station must identify itself by emitting a beacon with signal (type of charging station, coordinates, and costs) similar to the flower. The charging station already occupied by the drone no longer sends a signal and is therefore not visible to the other drone. Of course, the drone can store the stations with it so that they can be included in route planning. As a networked solution, there could also be centralized platforms, similar to the task hub that bring the drones together with charging stations. The drone can then book the station and report to the station that it is on its way to the charging station. To be recharged, the drone pays money. Payment can be made before or after recharging. These two payment methods have some disadvantages. For example, if the drone has to fly away quickly. Therefore the approach with step-by-step payment (e.g. every 10 minutes) is more appropriate. Like the charging station, as well as the drone, the ratings can be left in the block chain.

    Hotel / Accommodation for the drones
    As is usual in nature, the drone can only be active in certain weather conditions. For some time the drone has to stay in a hotel/accommodation. Private persons or companies can operate hotel. A hotel is a place where the drone can automatically mature or leave. Accommodation is paid according to the length of stay (e.g. every 30 minutes). In order to avoid damage to the drone, some values, such as humidity and temperature, must be maintained. The drone can measure these values regularly in the accommodation and, in the event of deviations from the norm, can create and publish a negative rating. The drone as well as the hotel can write the rating into the block chain. In order to avoid the situation in which the drone cannot pay for accommodation, it is apparently necessary for the drone to show a certain amount so that it can be accommodated in a hotel.

    Repair station
    The drone constantly checks that all systems are functioning properly. If the deviations occur, the drone will select a suitable repair station and land there. Here, as with Hotel and Flower, the beacons are also used and/or the special platform (such as task hub) that mediates the opposite sides. An evaluation system is also used here. The repair station is a fully automatic diagnostic and repair system. If the drone lands on the platform, a link is established between the two, and the drone is sending the error report to the station. The platform then carries out its own diagnosis of the drone and evaluates the condition. If repair is needed, a price suggestion is made to the drone. If the drone opts for repair, the modules are replaced automatically. If the repair is very extensive and the drone has enough money, the main module (brain + wallet) is transplanted into the new body. It is important to design the drone so that each module can be replaced independently. The installed modules are written into the block chain in conjunction with the drone number to ensure that the modules are of the appropriate quality, i.e. new. Another advantage is that the longevity and failure probability of the respective module can be determined for all drones. And the evaluation of the individual manufacturers of the modules.

    Tuning station If the drone has earned a certain amount of money, it can make the decision to modernize individual modules. Drone is aware of the advantages of tuning. The price list of modules is available in network, so the drone knows if the available money is sufficient. If the drone wants to change to the next drone size, only the main module is replanted into the new body. The location of the tuning station and the evaluation is carried out by the beacon and block chain, as with the repair station.
    As with the repair station, the following steps are performed:

  • Drone lands

  • Link with station is established

  • Drone transmits the data with the wish to exchange one or more modules.

  • Drone shows that the required sum of money is available.

  • Tuning Station diagnosing the drone.

  • At this point, the tuning station can grant a discount.

  • If everything is in order, the tuning station carries out an automatic module change.

  • The drone tests the modules for normal functionality.

  • Station is running its own diagnostic on the drone and reporting.

  • The drone transmits the agreed sum.

  • The drone and station write and publish the ratings.

  • Drone is docking.

    The individual stations can also be combined so that the drone can receive a wide range of services in one place. The approach of private individuals is very important here for competition, broad acceptance and widespread distribution. The possibility to earn a little money with your own electricity is very lucrative. All you have to do is position a standardized charging station on the roof and the money flows.

    Reproduction - the Darwinian Approach
    If the drone has accumulated enough money, it can decide to reproduce. To do this, the drone must visit a special station where the data transfer will take place. The production of new drone takes over the normal factories. The manufacturing process is conventional. People can also put the drone together here. It is important that the AI of exactly this drone is duplicated and imported into new drone. The drone also gets an initial sum of money so it does not start with 0. The drone will be deployed in the same area as the mother drone. This is important because the drone is optimized for the conditions at this location. Therefore, the successful, or better said, richest drone, or better said AI, can reproduce further. Natural selection also plays an important role. If the AI is unable to assess the environmental conditions, they will be destroyed by wind and rain. If the AI cannot calculate correctly and accept the cheap orders, the drone will have no money for the repair and will be unable to retire and reproduce. If the drone is too slow, the others will be faster at the flower and take the order. If many drones are needed and accordingly a lot of money is offered for their performance, the drones will reproduce more and thus react to the changes. If there are only a few orders and many drones, the drones will no longer have any money to keep themselves alive. Due to the lack of predatory pressure, there is no procedure to reduce the number of drones. Therefore, it is also necessary to program in a death (battery empty --> death). The unloaded drones are recycled and separated into individual modules. The AI in the main module will be deleted.

    Necessary developments

  • Legislation is not yet ready, liability issue still unresolved.

  • Insurance for the drones (anything that has money can be insured).

  • Silent flying

  • AI is not ready yet

    What can you do?
    The construct I have presented represents a possible further development of the existing technologies. The same or similar approaches are actively pursued in many research and development departments. I cannot promise that this variant is inevitable, but man will be able to derive great benefit from these insects. Just like the bees, we need such helpers who, with appropriate miniaturization, can also take over the tasks of the bees.
    What can you do now to remain a pioneer?

  • Development of standardized stations (flower, charging station, repair station, tuning station, hotel).

  • Development of the task lift and other platforms that the drones can access.

  • Development of drones and individual modules

  • Development of beacons - Development of the AI

  • Development of communication interfaces

    More ideas

  • If I want my windows cleaned from the street side, I position a beacon on the windows, define the task in the beacon (clean this window) and pay and the passing drone will do it automatically and get the pay.

  • Same with the lawn drone.

  • An app for the delivery drone. I standing on the street and would like to hand over a small parcel to another person immediately. So I put the parcel on the street, take a photo of this parcel from above in the special app, specify the weight of the parcel and the recipient. After the receiver has confirmed that he is waiting for the parcel, the passing drone will grab the parcel and transport it to the receiver. In order to reduce misuse, the recipient does not have to leave a certain radius (the location of the recipient is determined by the app). If the recipient has disappeared, the parcel is delivered to the next Pack station. The sender will be informed and can pick up the parcel himself. The app pays for the drone. Such an immediate delivery is certainly very convenient.

  • Just like the drones in the wild, they can also be domesticated, e.g. for home or factory use. Here the same beacons can be taken, only the task to which the drone reacts will be different, so that no one from outside can lure the drone away.


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