Monday, May 6, 2019

Why Ethereum will flippen BTC

1) BTC is designed to have hype cycles. As we near halvening in May 2020, this will draw in more and more speculators and money. Barring a black swan event, this is almost guaranteed.

2) Much of the world's population isn't rich enough to own a full BTC, regardless of whether it's trading at $10K, $20K or $50K. At this price level, unless BTC is re-denominated in satoshis, it will gradually look more and more expensive (per unit).

3) Many normies still do not recognize the concept of being able to own <1 full BTC, and will choose to look down the list for the next best, legit coin.

4) Even if they know BTC is subdivisible, they would rather psychologically want to own one full unit of something (that's just human nature)

5) Ethereum has the best chance of being the next-in-line due to its heavy mindshare and its relative "cheapness" vs BTC's humongous number, while not going down the list too far. This will amplified by the media turning its attention to Ethereum as the dominant smart contract platform, with DeFi + entreprise adoption finally gaining serious traction.

6) How many of us have once balked at Berkshire's enormous share price? Bitcoin's price will rise to a price which will make owning 1 BTC unimaginable for the non-1-percenters, and the spillover capital will be massive.

7) ETH will be the silver to Bitcoin's gold. Let's put aside comparing its utility; there is always a silver to gold, even if Bitcoin continues to remain #1. In a raging precious metal bull market, silver outperforms gold by a few folds (check the famous XAG/XAU ratio). Speculators love silver for this reason.

8) During the mania phase, this ratio may even exceed 0.17 (where ETH flippens BTC) as while BTC's supply can be dumped on the market at any point of time, once PoS is live, some ETH will be permanently locked away forever (in the form of dynastic crypto-wealth), and will never enter circulation again.

9) There is always a price for BTC (even if its not for fiat) but at a sufficiently high valuation, where a hodler may choose to trade some BTC away from real estate, as another form of SoV. However, if ETH is the dominant smart contract, then there is only one such smart contract platform in the world. Most of the 120m ETH will be permanently staked to generate a yield, staking your undilutable claim on the "world computer" <replace with meme of your choice>.

10) Just like trophy real estate, once your family owns Building XXX or Castle XXX, trust structures hold the dynastic wealth through generations and simply live off the yield it generates. Control over Ethereum will push prices into the stratosphere.

THERE IS SIMPLY NO SUBSTITUTE FOR ETHEREUM if it wins the platform wars.

BITCOIN WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH REAL ESTATE.

In the very long-term (30-50 years), I see Bitcoin achieving $500k+ ($9 trillion cap) or 2.5% of the world's wealth. Ethereum will be worth more. Ethereum will not only capture some of the SoV wealth, it will create completely new wealth from ideas we cant' even dream of today (just as the Internet created $100 trillion+ of new wealth).

Hodl strong, because we're going to $160,000 per ETH. ($20 trillion cap)


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