Sunday, April 18, 2021

I think the bitcoin drop might be finished.

I'd shorted bitcoin and then a couple hours later it made a big drop. My target was 30K but the current low is about 47K. A crash in BTC would probably be an early warning of weakening broad markets. : BeatTheBear (reddit.com)

This move has been surprisingly fast. Went down to nearly exactly 38.2 of the last big upswing and then started to make a rapid correction off of that.

https://preview.redd.it/d7h7p0ivtvt61.png?width=1907&format=png&auto=webp&s=1b03ee4b7b457ad6588f691d80f1b287d38d2041

And this has happened off of a surprise news event. https://dailyhodl.com/2021/04/17/bitcoin-and-crypto-markets-plummet-as-u-s-treasury-rumor-spreads/

These are common conditions for the false breakout move in Elliot wave 4. And this would imply we are entering into a 5th wave and we'll see a parabolic move upwards spiking out the last high and extending 161 of the fall. I am exiting my shorts at 56,250.

  • I am buying at current price of 56,250 with stops under recent lows at 55,640.
  • I am setting limit orders to buy at 53,2300. The stop loss on these is 44,869 and the target for the trade will be 75,679.

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