I’ve mentioned this a few times recently but it’s a good thread topic. I was asked where a good source for market news is and my response was Twitter (FinTwit) The speed in which one can be informed before traditional outlasts is amazing. Without fail, I would read a relevant piece of information or see a breaking story and it was always 2 days or more later that the story showed up in the news feeds.
This two day period is my focal point. In this time I believe the orchestrators of media outlets are crafting news to fit certain criteria they are requested to adhere to. This will always vary based on desire, market sentiment, and later, regulation.
Take our most recent “pricepocolypse” ; it was nothing short of surgical the way story’s seemed to appear and fit directly where a blow must land for effect. The domino cliche applies as typically whatever Catalyst was responsible for a price drop precipitates the next and so on.
A few things to remember; media outlets (I’d argue in general but let’s keep it to the digital market) don’t actually care about facts; that is to say they speculate and guess as does anyone reporting on potential future events. What they DO care about is narrative; “how does this price move fit into the picture we’ve been painting?” This is natural and acceptable until the narrative becomes inorganic (manipulated or forced).
Ways to pick up on trends vary from person to person and some are better than others. I think simplicity is important so well start with repetition. If you start to see multiple outlets using similar phrases or repeating information it’s worth researching the repeated info separately; don’t just take the article word for it. Especially if the information is question is a prediction.
How about quotations? This is probably the biggest generator of crafted narratives. People who’ve built their lives of fiat always have a lot to say about markets and because their “towers” are so tall and built with “success” people tend to want to be told by them “what’s over the horizon?” This sets the stage for manipulation and one only need to look at the likes of JP Morgan and Goldman (ball)Sachs who’s management LOVES to give the media something to mass produce. Especially after the blunder at the beginning of the year; the price of bitcoin was starting to move up and one fiat genius revealed his firm’s intent to bitcoin. He then gave a reasonable guess at a price of 400k or so (eoy). This drove demand before they had even made their entry. Watching the price of their coming investment sky rocket they opened the playbook and ran the ol’ reverse FUD. And it worked. After this I’ve seen it every month. “Long term potential still high but massive drop on the sort horizon” and with the fear spreading and their coins safe and secure they begin to buy up all the scared, surrendered coin.
This isn’t conspiracy or mental gymnastics. One of the repeated themes this run is the vast amount of dip buying by the very players that make exacerbating statements.
This isn’t new AT ALL. But, this IS also the first rodeo for a lot of retail investors; the EXACT demographic that a fear shakeout has an effect on.
Let’s hash this out and dissect the info: come at me! Please remember the difference between learning and arguing is civility.
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