There are patterns in the charts: the bull runs start earlier and end later each cycle. This is something that most have noticed.
From how I see it, eventually the bull runs will overlap each other, resulting in a balanced market and result in no bear market to feed a bull run.
This will be adoption. When the cycles eventually float into each other so well that they follow adopted financial patterns instead, which give an average of approx. 4 year cycles (correlation to the 4 year political cycle being the most common?).
As with all hypothesizing, only time will tell what adoption actually will look like or if any of my predictions make any sense.
With BTC, it's the 4 year PoW halving that's the most probable cause for the current type of bullruns.
The definition of "bullrun" is loose, so i will use these metrics: it starts at the lowest dip before a new ATH has been reached and the price can never drop below starting point of the bull run. it is concluded when there is no new ATH in over a year:
january 2011 - june 2011 - 6 months - ATH 29,60€
january 2013 - january 2014 - 1 year, 1 month - ATH 1.147,25$ (+3875% from previous ATH)
october 2015 - january 2018 - 2 years and 4 months - ATH 19.343,04$ (+1686%)
By using these metrics, we look at the actual start of the flow of the market instead of the usual "where did people start going green from previous ATH again" and end where the flow is interrupted.
Current bullrun:
march 2020 - today - 1 year and 3 months. this is far from an increase of the cycle. it would be the first stagnation of the length of a bullrun cycle.
ATH 63.564,83$ (+328,6%)
By these metrics, we should reach a higher ATH. The gains decreased by 43,5% between the previous bullruns. Based on these metrics, we would be reaching an increase of 733% from previous ATH of the last bullrun, meaning an ATH of approx. 140.000$. This is of course based on limited data and should be taken as a rough estimate. In factuality, increases tend to decrease over time as adoption gets closer. 90-110.000$ would be more realistic due to the current financial situation.
Corona could (and has) obviously cut down on the cycle due to lack of investment power. Our countries are heavily invested in printing money and companies are busy trying to survive.
Have in mind though, that the increase of the price of BTC has this form of backing:
1: many BTC holders are gone. their coins will never be sold. same thing with lost wallets, faulty transactions, etc. there will only be 21 million BTC.
2: the increase in interest is often permanent. each cycle accumulates new investors which stay for the long run. some BTC never gets sold. this increase exceeds the flow of investment, as many of us got in poor, planning pension plans and such, only withdrawing at a price increase.
institutional investment is what pumps the price the most. and original BTC holders are obviously whalish (or Welsh?) enough to act as powerfully as institutions.
3: humans easily forget something that has been shown once. we're in the 4th bullrun now. you can't ignore something that has been impactful on society 4 times. and if you can. will you ignore it the 5th time? or the 6th? eventually, old people get replaced by babies which are taught that crypto is the thing you wage slave for.
We also shouldn't be at the end of a bull run, based on the length of previous bullruns.
if we compare our current situation, please have a look at 4.1.2017, price at 1129,87$. On the 12.1.2017, it was at 802,83$. that's a 1/3 crash. not as powerful as the halving tsunami that we were hit with, but a significant blow nonetheless. there was also no pandemic raging back then. there were fewer wars. the world was more stable. people could afford to HODL for longer before they were forced to sell. cause if you overinvested money that was for rent... you can't really HODL. Not during a pandemic.
All right. So now you got your confirmation bias for you to upvote my post, eh?
NOT SO FAST SHITCOIN HODLER!!!
These are the charts for BITCOIN.
I am in no way saying this bull cycle will continue as previously or that it will continue for every coin. Or that it will continue at all actually. Some shitcoins will and are already on their way straight to the core of the earth. More will follow no matter if this bull cycle will continue or not.
It's very likely that your gambles will lagoon while the top coins go for new ATH every day.
Cause if we look at previous cycles. The time of mania is followed by a time of progress.
- this is also where all the shitcoin earnings are reinvested into long-term HODL's.
Before taking out a 31rd mortgage on your cat, please have in mind that these were calculations made based on numbers, which in real life fluctuate due to world events. DYOR.
TLDR:
Corona Corona. Do not touch your friend. Is the bull cycle over? Probably not.
No comments:
Post a Comment