Saturday, August 7, 2021

The insanity of contrarian action in crypto markets.

I would just like to take a moment to point out how irrational are marketplaces are in the last few months.

A few months ago one of the biggest events in the last decade happened - a entire country decided to make a cryptocurrency legal tender (El Salvador and Bitcoin). This was literally the first step of the holy Grail - countries positioning themselves to finally add cryptocurrencies to their reserve asset basket.

Now this event is so monumentous that it should have sent the market into a fresh Bullrun skyrocketing in price. Instead it did the opposite. Not only did it not move the price upwards the market went down.

Now we have an opposite situation. The largest economic powerhouse country in the world is setting up legislation to make activities related to cryptocurrencies regulated in a way that makes it impossible for a normal person to contribute to the network. You have yellen and the US Treasury as well as the White House lobbying for the worst amendment that would make activities like staking equivalent to that of a financial broker.

And the market is rallying upwards.

I learned over 5 years ago that often in cryptocurrencies contrarians win. You would think that you could trade on news but you really can't. You never know when the market is going to go in the complete opposite direction in the face of all logic and rationality.

When this legislation gets passed is the market going to continue rallying? Or will people finally wake up and smell the coffee?

I know that this is a global system and that the United States does not represent the rest of the world. But it is a trend setter and the rest of the world is watching. Corrupt authoritarian regimes are looking for any way to stifle dissent and threats to their power structures. Crippling the security of a network that bypasses traditional financial systems is one way to do that. I'm just surprised it's not coming from the usual means - by using the fear of terrorism and child pornography. Instead it's just coming through typical overburdensome regulation.

I think I see where this is going. Promotion of CBDCs and overburdensome regulation of decentralized cryptocurrencies. Governments have learned that if you come out swinging with orwellian like actions you can have a Streisand effect. So instead they are going to slowly implant insidious regulation to cripple these networks while they in tandem build centralized highly controllable digital currencies.

That's about as tin-hatty as I can get. This probably is not some insidious plan concocted by the Illuminati.... It's most likely just naive uneducated politicians being corrupted by large financial interests. I think the bigger problem is money in politics and how these people are swayed.


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