Monday, December 6, 2021

We may be about to see the end of Alt coins

So the -20 to 30% correction I discussed occured based on put/call and long/short analysis

However while BTC shorts have decreased by nearly -57%; and never reached the 10 000 BTC risk band

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSDSHORTS/

ETH shorts are still in the 200k - 250k risk band

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ETHUSDSHORTS/

This is not good; on a scale of 1 to 10. This is a Fuck!

Furthermore when compounded with data gathered from major Alts e.g ADA, LINK, UNI etc.... the picture becomes more frightening

From the May highs the average price is down -75%. While the Weekly RSI on LINK, ADA and others are now at March 2020 capitulation.

Before this is labelled as FUD we have routinely relied on new flows of capital from new investors into Alts. However in 2021 3 major events have essentially killed the Alt Market

  1. Robin hood and meme stocks. The demographic that would have usually jumped the crypto train and playing with options and short squeezes
  2. NFTs created a separate market that by all metrics is larger than most projects in the top 200
  3. Meme coins diverted funds from Alt projects and "made a joke of crypto"

Yes projects like SOL did have runs. But based on its connection to FTX and only 2% to 10% of SOL supply actully being traded. It most likely was an artificial run that was dependent on greater market participation for the remaining 90%+ held to be released. For those not in the know a large amount of SOL is held by the foundation and VCs

So what does this mean for ETH?

Based on the shorts and unsubstantiated claims floating around. ETH may drop down to $1,713.81 in a worst case scenario. For those that want to know what these claims are you can DM me

I really hope that I am wrong or have completely lost the plot.

Any interpretation of the data is welcome.

https://www.viewbase.com/exchange

https://www.coinoptionstrack.com/options/ETH/open-interest

https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=addresses.ActiveCount

https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/bitcoinBubble

https://app.laevitas.ch/dashboard/btc/deribit/options/activity


No comments:

Post a Comment