REGULAR "LATEST MARKET CRASH" EDITION
Refresh often for updates, (or not). :)
TS: 10:00am (ish) pdt (UTC +7)
=============================> THOUGHT$ FOR THE DAY <=============================
Today, and every day now, etc.
The Trigger Action Needs To Be Executed Most Gracefully
>>>I live & trade to music 24/7, presently playing: John Williams-"el diablo suelto guitar of venezuela 2003". :)
1.0 HOW I AM TRADING THIS MARKET:
US Markets are up weakly on what looks to be the end of the last bear bounce-and crypto chopping sideways to down along with it. I am looking for a fold back today.
I am scalping in both directions, size 5 unless noted otherwise. Trade type is large position and short parry (targeted range capture), because the market is tight as it scrapes ever down on average after fresh annual lows-to sequentially set new 12 month (and beyond) lows. Today we are just under the shark line (best shorting op), so shorts need to be careful, and taken near top of trend channels to be "safe".
Dry Powder: 50%
(the large reserve is for capture of big pump/dump moves like FIL yesterday, and sequential tranche taking when early scalps are too early)
Long/Short* Ratio (changes often!): 50***/50***
Scalp Length: short!
2.0 THIS I BELIEVE AT PRESENT (my general market outlook):
We are in a Bear (read: 'risk off' oriented) Market, and will be for much of 2022. The word "recession" is broadcast quite a bit now . . . and Crypto has never been in a big one of those-it's new ground for such risk on assets.
This is the third material crash since April 7, 2022. (Take the hint.)
My position shift in early January has been proven the ticket indeed. And it is NOT over.
Prices are likely to fall further net-before they rise again, net.
"Net" to me is in the 1 month range minimum, unless some form of material momentous rally gets underway, which I do not see at this point prior to, well, last year's Skynet Rhyme-A-Roni. :)
Market environs like this separate the brownies from the gurlyscouts, as they are very hard to navigate successfully-CONSISTENTLY.
Trending markets are easy to call, (relatively speaking). Chaos markets (as here), where direction and outcome is ever in serious (and often violent) question, are much harder to assess....and so require a tad (lot!!!) more ooompah to work well. ;)
No change to the process: buy at DDT TA Support, sell into DDT TA OHR-period.......rinse and repeat, (for now). Ditto the reverse for shorting. The process is just that simple....albeit the market is definitely not. ;) The Challenge here is the new data profiles DDT is drawn from are all very new, or >1yr old. That creates a data vacuum challenge. When that environ is encountered, one has to mostly rely on Stochs, Volume, MAs, and very short term patterns. Never a dull moment in a highly speculative market that can't/won't make up its risk on/risk off mind, amidst heavy duty manipulation by the big ugly players, (Chinese Exchange Whaler$ et etc).
3.0 CRYPTO INDEX>DCI30:
Today (yesterday was -61.6%, we saw dips pushing to -70% zone over the last weekend)
The DCI30 DDT Crypto Index was begun 04/07/2022 for traders who seek reliable transparency, details here:
4.0 BROADER MARKETS: choppy up, after negative futures night-volume \meh**
5.0 COIN CORRELATIONS: strong initially at bell open-then inconsistent
Check Before Using-lots of inconsistency
6.0 $ENTIMENTATORS:
Chopping Sideways near the bottom of range
7.0 UPDATES & RANDOM FEATURES (if any) FOLLOW . . . Good Luck Today! :)
Hahahaha, been at this for 20 yrs now sonny boy. :)
Note: you can't watch a video and learn the required ropes, it is not even remotely that simple. Anything worth doing, is worth doing well. Very well. :)
Backwards thinking-BTC is a reflection-not a reason. A result of bad bubble bursting.
Yeah-that its bottom is not in haha.
Bitcoin is not the aggregate of anything, it is but a perfect example of Fomo Tulip Mania.
Same old same old.
The sex appeal is "gone", the lie exposed, and I am guessing that big bill board at the SF entrance to the Bay Bridge going or long gone, (haven't been down there since 2020 to look).
The Hopium Hype Cat is way out of the bag. Fence sitters scared away, institutions not seeking toxic exposure when they need to position defensively, and BTC is no FAANG equity. It is a junior piece of tech that IS being rightly revalued. All BTC tells us is how silly "investors" are, and how short sighted investing intelligence can be-when enough marketing moola is thrown at a Kardashian Koncept. :)
DYOR hahaha, yeah-right!
Um, yeah. OP just left out the 2022 mid term part here. :)
DDT TA Ditch Signals Here Have Issued Precise Opposite Calls
The moves above come from the fear/fomo based crowd. They come from narrative, not data.
There has been about zero data that suggests tech investment long is a "good" idea here. Notice how scalpers do not have to think about these big pictures. :) Because scalping does not involve messy public market enemy #1: duration. In uncertain environs, being locked into anything is truly risky. I hate risk. That is why I scalp.
OK, ENOUGH ESOTERIC MAMBO, YOU WANT TO SEE THESE TRADE CALLS ANALYZED?:
The Matic Entry Setup-15m chart with extra DDT TA stripped off for simple viewing
That red arrow is the average trade direction over ~2weeks.....the rest, is self explanatory. (I am working with a student right now, so you can thank him for the share haha....he is in this trade at present.)
Here Are The Exit Ops-1m zoomed in DDT TA Scalping Chart (simplified view)
This is a live Student/Teacher trade, so you get to watch us fail (or not)! :)
DR. KOSPI ageeing with DR. Copper-the 911 Medical Team is NOT happy.
Ditto. I will simply point out that the two worst are all 21st Century Events :)
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