Monday, December 17, 2018

Help me understand the difference between a Bitcoin and stock market bust & boom cycles

I admit that I am an enthusiast. I have also invested in the stock market and real estate and took courses and read numerous books.

What I see here in many non-crypto subs is the following:

Bitcoin crashed, so it must be going to zero. Taking apart the fact that you may think it has no value and (an innovative technology) is similar to tulips(?) just looking at this asset graphs you can tell that:

Bitcoin is going through bust & boom cycles that everytime end up in a higher ATH. This is the 5-6th according to how you define it.

People think that stock market cycles are normal and never going to zero, in fact that when a stock market crash happens you should be buying. This is based on **historical data**.

If you like to base decisions on **historical data** then buying Bitcoin now makes it a great investment since it can reap rewards that can never happen in normal investing and it's what exactly **Taleb** describes in his book that you need to try and be in every black swan event (positive) that can happen. This is what he is talking about.

In any case since I am a programmer and I follow logical diagrams my point is this:

IF you think repeating market cycles that go higher every time are important THEN Bitcoin would be a good buy.

Instead what I read here is the opposite (irrational to me) argument that:

IF Bitcoin is crashing THEN it is going to zero.

I get it if you think that it has no value whatsoever though.


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