Bitcoin maximalists rest Bitcoin's future value on the expectation that it will maintain or increases purchasing power over the long term (Bitcoin = Store of Value). In an optimistic scenario, maximalists anticipate government adoption in the form of central banks buying Bitcoin in order to support the value of their fiat currencies (Hypberbitcoinization). Many maximalists also support the possibility that monetary systems will revert back to a commodity-based fiat system in which Bitcoin is the commodity instead of gold.
I'm increasingly wary of all three possibilities. The fiat-based USD-as-reserve currency system hasn't triggered a crash to the extent that the previous commodity-based system has (The Great Depression). Some even argue that the gold standard contributed to TGD. We have, however, seen numerous hyperinflation scenarios as a direct result of fiat printing drastically outpacing growth. Central banks in highly developed countries, specifically the US, have thus far managed the debt-based system without major fault. Yes, inflation is a hidden tax that benefits those first introduced to the new money at the expense of those who see it last. How long this system can continue is the question.
If the current system does continue without a paradigm-shifting event, the real value proposition of a cryptocurrency isn't exclusively its SoV, but of its usefulness. As we plunge deeper into a digital, global economy, the old ways of transacting value have increasing limitations. Cryptocurrency presents a solution, which both Bitcoin and Monero satisfy — but Monero to a greater degree. The ability to transact privately without being censored being the primary advantage Monero has over Bitcoin. (Although it's yet to be known whether or not privacy will have any real value.)
If the fiat-based system continues, we should expect all asset classes to generally trend upward. There will be boom and bust cycles, but equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies should generally increase in value relative to fiat. This is, of course, a generalization. Some cryptocurrencies will die in the same way some corporations (equities) will go bankrupt and dissolve. Some classes will outperform others. Gold could, for example, outperform Bitcoin.
Most things being equal, IF privacy has value, Monero should outperform Bitcoin for that reason. However, if Bitcoin plays a role in a new global financial system paradigm, and privacy has little value, then Bitcoin should massively outperform Monero. Going long on both BTC and XMR is the safe play IMO, with XMR representing a higher percentage of one's portfolio.
My very long shower thought.
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