In seven months, an event will occur that can radically change the value of the first cryptocurrency. Reduction of remuneration for miners will not pass without a trace for altcoins
Every 210,000 blocks mined, a programmed event called halving occurs. Usually, miners mine one block in 9 minutes and 20 seconds, so halving occurs every four years. Halving is a systematic reduction in rewards for miners for a mined block. Initially, the reward for the block was 50 military-technical cooperation. In 2020, miners will be able to receive only 6 BTC per block.
At the end of September, a trader with the nickname Anondran announced that Bitcoin will return to the level of $ 10,000 in a month and a half, after which the cryptocurrency rate will slowly begin an uptrend and will update its historical maximum to halving in 2020.
Researchers at an investment company have noted that in previous grades, bitcoin is always more expensive after halving. The first cryptocurrency shows growth in about a year before Halving. In 2013, the value of bitcoin increased by 12,000%, and in 2017 - by 13,000%. However, after it all started, hide, and the first cryptocurrency was very attractive. Top cryptocurrencies were in the same position. Many analysts do not talk about BTC prices. Therefore, a year after the BTC halving, not only the main digital coin grew.
This can be seen in the example of the second halving of the main digital coin, held in July 2016. So, Litecoin began to grow a few months before the decrease in remuneration for the mined block of bitcoin. True, having risen in price by several dollars, the cryptocurrency rate has returned to its previous performance. However, exactly one year later, the lightcoin managed to reach maximum price values from the moment it appeared. In July 2016, the average coin was valued at $ 4.15, and in July 2017 - about $ 53.
There was a similar situation with Ethereum. At the time of the halving itself, only slight fluctuations in the course occurred. However, a year after this event, the ether rose from a level of $ 10 to indicators of more than $ 270. Also, the first significant increase in XRP since the coin appeared on the market was recorded a year after the bitcoin halving.
However, it is still difficult to predict exactly what impact the other half of the reward halving will have in 2020. HodlBlog analysts have proved that before every year, the correlation between top coins and bitcoin increased. So, in 2017, it was proved that 75% of the top 200 coins by market capitalization had a correlation of 0.67 or higher over the past two years. And in 2018, the correlations between cryptocurrencies and BTC were especially high. 75% of the top 200 coins by market capitalization had a correlation of 0.87 or higher.
However, in 2019, this indicator began to decline. The average correlation coefficient for the 200 best cryptocurrencies by market capitalization decreased from 0.89 to 0.58. You can find out exactly what the relationship is between a particular pair of cryptocurrencies using the Plotly service. Data is displayed in a simple table.
A positive correlation coefficient implies that the pair will always move in the same direction. A correlation coefficient with a minus sign means that the pair will always move in the opposite direction. If the correlation coefficient is 0, this indicates that there is no observed linear relationship between them.
Such information can tell which coins will be most affected by the changed BTC rate if the positive forecasts of analysts come true. Recall that Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead predicts the first cryptocurrency will rise to $ 42,000 after halving in 2020, Canaccord Genuity analysts expect growth to $ 20,000. Fund Lee’s head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors is betting on $ 91,000 and IHODL analysts even believe that the price of bitcoin can rise to $ 100,000.
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