Today is February 1st 2020. So i thought i would check in from my earlier post almost a year ago. I'm still long on bitcoin despite the bear trend and just reaffirming my long-term position.
I strongly believe there is more upside to come although the near future is still going to be sideways. We might even go down a bit from here and maybe even retest $6k.
Relax, this is expected. The bottom is behind us. Now it's just normal re accumulation, consolidation, and expansion of the bitcoin ecosystem. The bull run of 2017 created a lot of startups and also attracted scammers. This sideways trend is good to weed out the unsustainable startups and bore the scammers into leaving. All this is normal.
The pop back in summer of 2019 was fun, but it was too early to start a new bull run. I said in early 2019 that we still had another six months or so to buy in, the good thing about this bear trend is that we now have more time to buy in. Most of the weak hands have given up in the 2018 bear market, and the 2019 summer pop has allowed the patient hands to find their exit. The pop is a good thing in that regard. As they exit, that relieves downward selling pressure as only long-term holders remain. Once there are no more sellers, the next bull run will ready.
So the buy-in time has been extended another several months. Expect more of the patient hands to exit as the price bounces and they don't get the returns they're expecting.
My time horizon for the next bull run is about 2 years now, one down from last year. I expect us to be in the next bull run (or even topped out) by the end of 2021. As for when the next bull run will start, still extremely hard to say. The block reward halving tends to kick off bull runs because of the sudden decrease in supply. The block halving is expected to occur in May of 2020.
But since everyone knows this now, i expect speculators to actually start buying sooner, this might explain the 2019 summer pop. Too many bought in and caused a short squeeze. If lots of speculators are sitting on bitcoin reserves now, then when the block halving occurs, they'll start selling and might even crash the price a bit before realizing they need to hold off and sell more slowly. In fact, during the previous block halving event, there was a brief dip in prices as this "reserve unlock event" occurred, despite the block reward suddenly reducing supply.
So if you're still looking to buy, you have from now until a few months passed the block halving. I personally have already accumulated all the bitcoin i want, but if i have extra cash, i might buy some more in the few weeks after the block halving if the predicted "reserve unlock dip" occurs. I expect the dip to be much stronger this time around because everyone is expecting it. But also, those that are smart and will hold longer, will actually slow down the start of the next bull run as they sell into the next rise. So the next bull run might take until the end of 2020 to start, maybe even into mid 2021.
As such, be patient, we have time. And as usual, only play with fuck-you money. There are still the possibility that bitcoin can fail. And even more disastrous: I could be wrong. :)
TL;DR: Bitcoin going sideways as people hold and give up. Bitcoin will keep going sideways as speculators buy now and sell after block halving. Bitcoin will begin bull run after all those speculators run out of coin, and this is expected to begin in 2021. Bull run at end of 2021. You still have time to buy until a few weeks past the block halving.
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