Tuesday, April 28, 2020

It is very unlikely that the price of BTC is below 1 million USD if Bitcoin survives until 2040.

If you accept the fact that the cost of producing 1 BTC doubles over night at every halving event, and think it is reasonable that the power consumption of the Bitcoin network goes from that of Switzerland (today) to that of South-Korea (10x), and eventually to that of Russia (20x) from where we are today. Then you end up with a 5 million USD to 10 million USD BTC production price in 10 - 20 years from now.

7700 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 20 = 9,856,000 => approx 10 million USD. If not as much as Russia but as much as South-Korea then multiply by 10x instead of 20x => 5 milllion USD.

And this is the production cost, not the spot market price. Conclusion: If Bitcoin survives another 20 years. It is very unlikely for it to be below 1 million USD.

Remember that in 2032, instead of 50 Bitcoin per 10 minutes, you have 0,78125 BTC per 10 minute reward globally. And in 2040, approx 1 BTC will be mined per hour!!!

If 1 BTC is mined per hour in 2040, and the BTC network power consumtion is of that of Russia, how much does it cost to power Russia for 1 hour? That might be the production price of BTC in 20 years.


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