Saturday, June 13, 2020

The Truth about Bitcoin?

Part 1/4 - NSA Connection:

First off, the SHA-256 algorithm, which stands for Secure Hash Algorithm 256, is a member of the SHA-2 cryptographic hash functions designed by the NSA and first published in 2001.

SHA-256, like other hash functions, takes any input and produces an output (often called a hash) of fixed length. The output of a hashing algorithm such as SHA-256 will always be the same length - regardless of the input size. Specifically, the output is, as the name suggests, 256 bits. 

Moreover, all outputs appear completely random and offer no information about the input that created it.

The Bitcoin Network utilises the SHA-256 algorithm for mining and the creation of new addresses.

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? What does Satoshi Nakamoto mean?

Out of respect for their anonymity, it would be rude to speculate in a video about who Satoshi Nakamoto is likely to be. The reality is, it's not important. Let me explain: Any human being can be attacked. Jesus could come back from the dead, and there would be haters. Therefore, the Satoshi Nakamoto approach neutralises the natural human herd behaviour, exacerbated by the media, to attack and discredit. This is a very important part of Bitcoin's success thus far. Also, from a security perspective, those who wish to dox Satoshi Nakamoto in a video are essentially putting his, or her, or their, life at risk...for the sake of views.

As a genius who has produced an innovation not just from a technical perspective but also a monetary perspective, they should be treated with more respect than that. 

As for the name Satoshi Nakamoto, I would speculate that it is a homage to Tatsuaki Okamoto and Satoshi Obana - two cryptographers from Japan. There is another reason for the name, but that...is confidential.

In 1996, the NSA's Cryptology Division of their Office of Information Security Research and Technology published a paper titled: "How to make a mint: The cryptography of anonymous electronic cash", first publishing it in an MIT mailing list and later, in 1997, in the American University Law Review. One of the researchers they referenced was Tatsuaki Okamoto. 

Part 2/4 - 'Crypto Market':

Most of the crypto market is a scam.

By the way, this was predicted very early on in the Bitcoin Talk forums - check out this interaction from November 8th, 2010:

"if bitcoin really takes off I can see lots of get-rich-quick imitators coming on the scene: gitcoin, nitcoin, witcoin, titcoin, shitcoin...

Of course the cheap imitators will disappear as quickly as those 1990s "internet currencies", but lots of people will get burned along the way."

To which Bitcoin OG Gavin Andresen replies:

"I agree - we're in the Wild West days of open-source currency. I expect people will get burned by scams, imitators, ponzi schemes and price bubbles."

"I don't think there's a whole lot that can be done about scammers, imitators and ponzi schemes besides warning people to be careful with their money (whether dollars, euros or bitcoins)."

Now, on the one hand, lack of regulation is more meritocratic (as you don't have to be an accredited investor just to get access). 

On the other hand, it means that crypto is, as Gavin said, a Wild West environment, with many cowboys in the Desert. Be careful. 

This is the same with most online courses - particularly 'How to get rich quick' courses - however with crypto you have an exponential increase in the supply of victims during the bull cycles so it is particularly prevalent during those times.

In addition to this, leverage trading exchanges, which are no different to casinos, prey on naive retail traders who:

A) Think they can outsmart professional traders with actual risk management skills; and 

B) Think they can outsmart the exchanges themselves who have an informational advantage as well as an incentive to chase stop losses and liquidate positions.

Part 3/4 - CBDCs:

The Fed and Central Banks around the world have printed themselves into a corner.

Quantitative easing was the band-aid for the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, and more recent events have propelled the rate of money printing to absurd levels.

This means that all currencies are in a race to zero - and it becomes a game of who can print more fiat faster.

The powers that be know that this fiat frenzy is unsustainable, and that more and more people are becoming aware that it is a debt based system, based on nothing. 

The monetary system devised by bankers, for bankers, in 1913 on Jekyll Island and supercharged in 1971 is fairly archaic and also does not allow for meritocratic value transfer - fiat printing itself increases inequality.

They, obviously, know this (as it is by design).

The issue (for them) is that more and more people are starting to become aware of this. 

Moving to a modernised monetary system will allow those who have rigged the rules of the game for the last Century to get away scot-free.

It will also pave the way for a new wealthy, and more tech literate, elite to emerge - again predicted in the Bitcoin Talk forums.

Now...back to the powers that be.

Bitcoin provides a natural transition to Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and what I would describe as Finance 2.0, but what are the benefits of CBDCs for the state? 

More control, easier tax collection, more flexibility in monetary policy (i.e. negative interest rates) and generally a more efficient monetary system.

This leads us to the kicker: which is the war on cash. The cashless society was a fantasy just a few years ago, however now it doesn't seem so far fetched. No comment.

Part 4/4 - Bitcoin:

What about Bitcoin?

Well, Bitcoin has incredibly strong network effects; it is the most powerful computer network in the World.

But what about Bitcoin's reputation? 

Bankers hate it. 

Warren Buffett hates it.

Precisely, and the public hates bankers. 

Sure, the investing public respects Buffett, but the general public perception of anyone worth $73 billion is not exactly at all time highs right now amid record wealth inequality.

In the grand scheme of things, the market cap of Bitcoin is currently around $179 billion.

For example, the market cap of Gold is around $9 trillion, which is 50x the Market Cap of Bitcoin.

Money has certain characteristics.

In my opinion, what makes Bitcoin unique is the fact that it has a finite total supply (21 million) and a predictable supply schedule via the halving events every 4 years, which cut in half the rate at which new Bitcoin is released into circulation. 

Clearly, with these properties, it seems likely that Bitcoin could act as a meaningful hedge against inflation.

One of the key strengths of Bitcoin is the fact that the Network is decentralised...

Many people don't know that PayPal originally wanted to create a global currency similar to crypto

Overall, a speculative thesis would be the following: 

Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the most important entities of the 21st Century, and will accelerate the next transition of the human race.

Trusted third parties are security holes.

Bitcoin is the catalyst for Finance 2.0, whereby value transfer is conducted in a more meritocratic and decentralised fashion.

In 1964, Russian astrophysicist Nikolai Kardashev designed the Kardashev Scale.

At the time, he was looking for signs of extraterrestrial life within cosmic signals.

The Scale has three categories, which are based on the amount of usable energy a civilisation has at its disposal, and the degree of space colonisation. 

Generally, a Type 1 Civilisation has achieved mastery of its home planet (10^16W);

A Type 2 Civilisation has mastery over its solar system (10^26W);

and a Type 3 Civilisation has mastery over its Galaxy (10^36W).

We humans are a Type 0 Civilisation on this Scale.

Nonetheless, our exponential technological growth in the few decades indicates that we are somewhere between Type 0 and Type 1.

In fact, according to Carl Sagan's interpolated Kardashev Scale and recent global energy consumption, we are about 0.73.

Physicist Freeman Dyson estimated that within 200 years or so, we should attain Type 1 status.

As a technology that, through its decentralisation, links entities globally and makes value transfer between humans more efficient, Bitcoin could prove a key piece of our progression as a civilisation.

What are your thoughts?

Is it true...or false?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oQLOqpP1ZM


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