So as Tim has pointed out, there are some people not having a good time in America. Its a struggle out there, a real knife fight. It's life in the big city after all.
So our story begins with the subprime mortgage scheme back in the late 2000's. The big banks and money handlers never made it out alive, they just moved money around, printed cash til the floor was raised enough for institutional investors to step back in, but the gains are heavily muted, check out the last 20 years of stock gains compared to the previous 30, these fuckers are barely breaking even if you factor in inflation.
Ok fast forward to early 2018. The game is over, the last 10 year cycle is closing up and getting ready for a basic run of the mill down turn. a sideways move for a year or two, a heavy down move, some consolidation, and then back to the races; thats how it was supposed to go if you were a rube.
The boys inside though knew there werent any profits that could keep up with 20 times forward earnings, now its 25 and we call that a bargain, ha! Fucking animals.
So we get the major fast correction in January '18, but Big Daddy Trump is on a roll, hes getting tax cuts, and he might just keep the house and make it permanently 1986, and so the pump rolled on.
3 Quarters later its the tail end of 2018, and earnings didnt keep up, they fell, and its only gonna get worse since Trump isnt getting more tax cuts til 2020 at least. The workers have no money with buying power, over seas debt is defaulting in India and shit, the money lenders are getting slaughtered. The EU, i mean, dont get me started. And then China.
Big. Bad. China. Slim Dick Slingers Supreme we call em. These fuckers are gonna ditch the dollar for gold/bitcoin backed securities, and the EU sells gold by the boatload to print more Euros, who you think buys gold bars at a fire sale?
Fucking China.
So the markets know there isnt anywhere to go. The retail boom of the last 10 years is driven on cheap debt, for the consumer and the retailer. All those big box stores, those mega chains, they are gonna be dead in 20 years from Amazon and what not right?
In 5 years youll be clicking the instagram ad for a product, not shopping at Best Buy in Maspeth
So what to do. A looming debt crisis for the major lenders over seas to emerging market startups, looming crisis of demand for brick and mortar retail, and earnings that demand a drawn out 2-3 year bottoming event as the old is razed for the new.
The answer, the oldest trick in the book. Manage your entire business into an insurance payout, get all your bills paid by the Feds on property youre gonna be defaulting on anyway, then burn that fucker to the ground for literal insurance money!
All you need to do is convince people the depression is because we had to shut down because of Covid, and they wont notice we spent over 6 Trillion with a mother fucking T bailing out companies that will be bankrupt in 5 fucking years max.
All you have to do is convince them 5% of protesters are rioters. 1%. 5 guys with a pickup truck. Anything thats believable that the riots, covered explicitly under insurance for major retail box stores getting looted.
Hell, make them really get looted. Get a guy to smash the windows and rally the hoods who arent having a good time in this America. Id sure as shit steal a new iphone i wont ever be able to afford anyway.
And they get Federal bailout, stock loss insurance covers looting, insurance covers the payout on the take it or leave 'fuck you im walking' moment thats coming with commercial real estate.
Welcome to Obama's America everyone.
Welcome to the Big City.
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