Hello everyone. Excuse the short bits where I go into my life; it is just to create some context as to the time of year. I want to put a little bit of background to our current situation, and that this was all predictable, and went down like clockwork yet again. There is an insane correlation between BTC's cycle and the announcement, availability, supply squeeze, and then disappointment of Nvidia's products.
A number of comments I make are purely speculative, while others are historical and based on logged events. I am lazy and do not feel like writing references. Not being able to get a 1080 ti bothered me a lot in 2018.
In early 2017 I bought my 1070 at MSRP. I had just built a new PC, and upgraded for Overwatch. During that year, as many know, BTC began to climb. Slowly, at first, and I did not particularly have the time or worry to bother about it; I was really low on money, and did not have any thought to participating in such a market.
Within the span of about a week or two, I had someone suggesting I sell my 1070. I asked why, it wouldn't even be worth it since I couldn't drown my sorrows in... then I looked. A freakin' 1070, EVGA XC3, were going for $1000~+, up to $1200. The 10 series were absolute beasts at mining, and before everyone knew it, we were in shortfall. The 1080 ti released in mid-2017, The other 10 series launched in mid-to-late 2016. Much like this year, at first, the shortages were not neccesarily alarming; consumer demand, after all.
Then, suddenly, it happened. BTC's price bumped up after the launch of the 1080 ti. I didn't know it then, but I knew it this year, but BTC's runup must have been partially fueled by a new generation of mining tools which were, in some way, particularly more effective at arbitrating blockchain transactions. I have even tried mining with my 3080, and it's rather impressive. I never thought I'd see more than 40 MH/s on my own rig, let alone 100+ overclocked.
Regardless, I didn't care in 2017. All I wanted to do was play x or y game, and survive the winter on no food, no hope, etc. It was a bad year. It would be shortly after that I ditched that place and came to live with other family which resulted in a much more positive life experience, in short. But that's not the focus here.
What are the parallels between Winter 2017-18, and Winter 2020-21?
The 3080 launched on Sep. 17th, after being announced on the 1st. Sixteen days.
The 1080 ti was launched on Mar. 10th, after being announced on the 28th of Feb. Ten days. The market was plenty full of 1080s, so this isn't a problem.
(1080: May 27. May 6 announcement. Twenty-one days.) Probably within weekend + holiday margin of error to the 3080.
Both of these cards changed the game. Not all by themselves, no, but in a tipping point that overflowed the tub. As soon as enough 1080 Tis were in the picture, BTC soared, and wouldn't stop. As a self-fulfilling prophecy, BTC gains value as interest in it increases, thus fueling more desire to profit from mining (which also facilitates the transactions, resulting in lower fees and faster authenticating).
If you look at any BTC chart, and look from those dates, you can see that is precisely when the runup began. Starting with the 1080, it grew modestly after having flattened at 400ish, and then after the 1080ti released it EXPLODED.
This time, we had the 20 series, and then the 30 series. First, the 20 series.
It started shipping in September of 2018, after the boom happened. It finished, a bit disappointingly (lewd joke here), in July of 2019. What can you see in the charts, on a day or even week chart, that occurs on those (very disappointing) launch days?
So you don't have to go, they crash. Hard. There seems to be some expectation that they will release another 1080 ti and the overproduction of block decryption will pay for itself. As soon as they realize there will be no significant upgrade from their suites of 1080tis and ASIC miners, they reallocate back to more profitable coins or otherwise.
The next peak is Feb 10th, 2020, just before COVID. Hm, I wonder what happened...
It seems like.. something went awry. I cannot remember what happened in these weeks. I was completely focused on school. A friend told me that BTC would probably hit at least 50k in the winter, and he is a whale, so while I didn't follow it very closely, I figured he at least knew what was going on. I planned on buying some periodically, and then... bam! Goodbye budget! Cue my slow run into insanity, and BTC's rise to glory yet again.
I have a suspicion that miners expected, or at least knew in some way, that the 30 series was most certainly going to be coming, and were preparing to gear for it even earlier given Nvidia's strong showing. COVID put a damper, and a wait, on everything. But it didn't change the course. The drop happened, and hodlers bought. COVID was happening, and hodlers bought. Everyone was panicking, and hodlers bought.
Morning of the launch I streamed me failing to get one from Newegg, and then pretty much shrugged and said miners were in control, and I'm sure I wouldn't get one till next year. Had I not gotten into EVGA's line first thing, I would have been 100% correct.
What is next?
It is very simple. It is just a repeat. 'It's not like last time', but it is. It is exactly like last time. Therefore, I feel fully confident giving this sub a date and availability prediction, as well a s your chances of getting any card anytime soon.
Scalpers?
Scalpers are not the problem. If anything, they're giving you a chance at all. They're taking advantage of the miners moreso than the consumer; they know the miners will pay a lot, because frankly, it will pay for itself with a tight enough system. Considering BTC appreciated 900% over the months, ending in a fantastical 130% jump very quickly (not all ended though!), as long as there is limited supply, price can go anywhere it wants. It could easily go to double, with the power of the 3080 in a dedicated multigpu rig. It's just GOOD.
When were cards available last time?
Nvidia was correct. Q2, summer, after BTC corrects fully or moreso. Best case scenario, they release a card better than the others; in that instance, delaying the higher memory cards, and otherwise is actually a good move because it puts less pressure on their main line later on, though the pressure will exist. Don't be upset if they come out with the 3100 TI FE min-q kingpin GN STEVE edition card and it's $1600 and out of stock all the time. That means they're not buying as many 3080s. Theoretically.
Why can't they make more cards?
They did. They're now printing insane stacks of cash in the form of pushing BTC from 11,000 to 42,000 in a matter of a month and a half. Now THAT'S absurd. Sell to consumers, or have their mere existence make a product move upwards even FASTER?
With more paranoia, the good price actually reflected their expectations to this development. They didn't even have to make them expensive; now, however, they got more than they asked for, and they have to pass that along to all the secondary customer base.
mid-writing edit: Postponing the 3080 ti is a terrible thing. It will delay things even further. However, this still lines up fine with the timeline, if not improving it.
This was a plan by Nvidia/AMD to do a paper launch!
I have a feeling the plan was more charitable than that. They planned on all of this being panned out by January, and being able to release the new cards (weaker ones, not stronger ones that would incite further shortage) to a wider audience. Political instability, this weird spending bubble we find ourselves in, sentiments towards Intel, shortages elsewhere in the industry, and COVID, of course, with the poor vaccine rollout, all contributed to making things worse. Even hedging bets, Nvidia loses, here. As things got more heated up, the realization probably hit closer and closer to home.
Though many would just scoff at BTC or not recognize it as being this influential. people became millionaires in their sleep earlier this month without even knowing it. Following that, many others became the same with Tesla and now our market as a whole is just going up.
When will price be normal and stock return?
June, July at the earliest, and most certainly be normal by the start of school. Prices will improve, especially if Nvidia releases a dud. However, it will almost certainly be when you do not want to buy anything or spend any money. If you intend to hold that position until the GPUs arrive, please save some money aside just in case you get the chance.
More things affect your desire than just supply and scalpers. Everything affects it, and it affects everything. Don't ignore the BTC. The BTC loves you, unlike the USD.
Love the Bitcoin.
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