Source:
https://www.nature.com/articles/463608a
Summary:
Increasing fractionalization within the elite class, increasing inequality, higher cost of living, and increasing feelings of anxiety in the broader population foreshadow sociopolitical reckoning, in parallel with pre-Civil War trends, in the USA. Additional factors of concern: increasing number of young persons, increasing number of young graduates with advanced degrees, recessions to become more severe.
Commentary:
If you feel the world's fraying at the fringes, you're not alone. Social scientists agree that the US is headed for a period of marked instability. In 2010, instability researchers successfully predicted that American instability would peak around the 2020s--those same researchers are now afraid of an incoming civil war.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are peaking due to fears of instability. Both are better investments than the US dollar or the US stock market.
The power grid, constructed in the 1950s with a 50-year expiration span, is due for replacement (look at Texas). The current administration is showing itself to be unable to act quickly and decisively. There exists a significant chance that the US won't be able to repair it's infrastructure in time.
Sociopolitical unrest can contribute to the degeneration of the US infrastructure. Much of the power grid is dependent on a dozen or so power stations--a coordinated assault on these would effectively bring nation-wide blackouts spanning 18-months. Texas foreshadows the future.
There exists a noneglibile probability that US geostrategic rivals will take advantage of the chaos to plunge the public deeper into self-destruction. US geostrategic rivals might even percipitate the chaos.
Scenarios:
By the end of this decade, a few scenarios are possible. Here are those scenarios with quantified indicators
| Scenario | Indicators | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|
| Best case scenario: government takes control of the situation, historical collapse trend averted | {(1) Sheer drop in the price of bitcoin, ethereum, gold, silver, platinum etc. , (2) drop in US Gini coefficient, (3) US GDP growth rate rises consistently for the next 5 years (4) healthy stock market correction where companies like PLUG, Facebook, Palantir (asset-light tech stocks) experience sheer drop in price, (5) decreasing unemployment rate, (6) decreasing college enrollment rate, (7) increasing taxes, (8) decreasing firearms stock prices, (9) strengthening dollar, (10) vertical movement or rise in US quality of life indicators (11) succesful infrastructure reform (12) preemptive restrictions in free expression and civil liberties (13) decreased volume of racial protests (14) increasing diversity in company boards | Low |
| Worst case scenario | (1) Sustained rise in the price of bitcoin, ethereum, gold, silver, platinum etc. , (2) rise in US Gini coefficient, (3) US GDP growth rate moves vertically or falls consistently for the next 5 years (4) stock market speculation where companies like PLUG, Facebook, Palantir (asset-light tech stocks) experience sustained rise in price, (5) vertical or increasing unemployment rate, (6) increasing college enrollment rate, (7) flat or decreasing taxes, (8) increasing firearms stock prices, (9) weakening dollar, (10) downward movement in US quality of life indicators (11) unsuccessful infrastructure reform (12) no restrictions in free expression and civil liberties (13) consistent presencee of racial protests (14)continuous overrepresentation of the white demographic in company boards (15) black swan event | Low-Medium |
| Ambiguous scenario | (1) speculative price swings with upward trend in cryptocurrency assets (2) weakening US dollar (3) increased representation of minority demographics in company boards (4) erratic stock market with premium for "trending" categories of shares, most probably asset-light firms (5) slow infrastructure reform (6) increase in taxes without corresponding increase in budget administration efficiency (7) rising rate of college enrollment (8) vertical unemployment rate (9) no restriction on US freedom of expression of civil liberties (10) US well-being survey responses continue to fall (11) second cycle of falling firearm purchases and increasing firearm purchases (As reflected, for convenience, in stock price) (12) black swan event | High |
You owe it to yourself to keep track of indicators like the above (tailor them as you wish, but keep them reflective of the main issues discussed above). This is a throaway account. We are migrating and have since converted our fiat into cryptocurrency.
Suggestions:
Survivalism and "prepping" in the US will make you a target at worst and guarantee one-two years of no suffering at best. This society is too complex. People here depend on others to do their job--the population is above carrying capacity. The prolonged societal decline to come demands fleeing the country for more sociopolitically stable and resourcesful nations, preferably those with less sociopolitical complexity.
Do not remain in the US. Within the next five years, arrange migration. China, Russia, and the European nations are good bets (if you share national ethnicity). There's a premium on Australia and New Zealand. Citizenship in New Zealand is an invaluable privilege to have right now, provided you also have a infrastructure-independent means (and plan) to get there.
Attempts to maintain order by startup governments or local governments will be superseded by public need. Multiple startup governments might compete for attention, while the federal government scrambles to take control.
The US military will not be able to calm the chaos simultaneously--geostrategic targets will be prioritized, and there will be severe attrition.
The fracturing is coming, but it won't be immediate. A good strategy might be to live frugally for the next 3-4 years, gather funds, buy property abroad (in a non-socially-complex state), and create a self-sustaining space. Make plans as early as possible.
Good luck.
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