Fair Market Value BTC somewhere Near 22k

Hi Noobs,

Wanted to check in with you all and talk about the 2017-2018 bull run to crypto winter, and how I decided to go about figuring out where the exact bottom was going to be. We can use some of that information and apply it to the current BTC decline into Crypto Winter.

Ok so, in 2018 we seen a repeat of what always happens after a BTC bull run, which is a large quick moving down slope, moving somewhere around 20/30% in a single day.

Back then, I bought back in at the false floor, I made gains in a dead cat bounce and got out before the whole market feel off a god damn cliff, so over the next few weeks I thought about the basics a lot (I was in my first year of my masters and was devoting my first year to studying every aspect of crypto).

I wanted to know exactly how much money it was to run a Bitcoin mining farm, and what equipment they used specifically.

So I got all of that information and figured out that in 2018 it was just over 3k to produce each new Bitcoin. Like 3,100 to be exact or what I presented on my first year review for my masters.

Luckily we also have another data point which is, the pandemic drop which landed BTC at around 3,800 - super great data point because it shows us what inflation had done to the mining costs!!! Since 2018.

Ok so here is how we calculate the lowest BTC can be before Miners will stop selling and the price will go up:

First we should account for the inflation 3100 (in 2018) and 3800 (in 2020)

3800 - 3100 = 700 (for two years this could be because upgrades of mining equipment is needed constantly thus inflation is extremely high in the Bitcoin market and driven by competition)

700 / 2 = 350 per year

So because we went through the halving event we can double 3800 plus 350

(3800 + 350)2 = $8300

We can also assert that the $8300 is the near the lowest amount per coin right now.

So as we creep in to crypto winter II the lowest price point we would see out of this Decline would be about $8300

Last time what it took 7 months for the market to really bottom out to the point where the only people selling was miners to cover their costs.

Now because there are developments since 2018 crash I place the fair market value somewhere around 18-22k because of the coins increased use. Anything above 22k is just hype.

PS if you are buying right now you are being ripped off and will take substantial losses, as the market declines into crypto winter 2